RADIO
Hopefully, you all had a great Thanksgiving with your families or loved ones and enjoyed some solid football as well. As we head into the weekend there are zero NFL teams on a bye this week, but the bye weeks will resume in Week 12 and run through Week 14. We are getting closer to the NFL playoffs and if you haven't had a great season in your regular redraft league, the good news is that here in DFS you can start fresh with a new lineup every week.
Last week wasn't as good as weeks past in finding values, but Devin Singletary showed why we should play a running back in DFS against the Cleveland Browns defense just about every week. Remember, you don't need a player in this article to be the RB1 or WR1 on the week, the main thing is just to find value in the market so we can use our funds to spend elsewhere. The goal is to receive the highest output (fantasy points) for the lowest input (player DFS salary). Some of whom were suggested in the previous week's article: Daniel Jones (QB3), Devin Singletary (RB10), Cordarelle Patterson (RB18), and Darnell Mooney (WR23).
This article will run every week throughout the regular season. It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. If you didn't catch my Week 1 article that included some DFS tips and tricks, it can be found here. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends based on DraftKings salaries. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must and we should be looking for players with higher guaranteed floors (and consistency) to get us over the 50/50 hump in cash games. No matter which one you decide to play this week, here are some bargain players with potential in Week 11. Now let's get to those picks already!
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 12
Tom Brady, TB at CLE | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,400
This feels like the time right around the year that Tom Brady and his team get hot and go on a run. After their miracle comeback against the Rams in Week 9, the Bucs won again in Germany against the Seahawks to even their record at 5-5 and currently sit atop the NFC South. Tampa was on a bye in Week 11 which was a great thing for their team overall as injuries have been lingering all season. It's hard not to imagine that the rest was equally good for 45 year old Tom Brady as well.
This year has been a difficult one for many of the veteran quarterbacks as the likes of Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, and even Derek Carr to a degree have all struggled for fantasy. The good news for Brady is that the Tampa offense has been getting healthy and he has looked good for several weeks. On the season Brady has thrown for 2,805 yards along with 12 TDs and just 2 INTs.
The Browns defense is easier to run on than pass, but this week feels like a great matchup for Brady and his offense. Cleveland's offense has been able to move the ball this season, so likely they should score some points and force Tampa to keep scoring and maintain their lead. At 3-7 the Browns season is all but over and defensive coordinator Joe Woods unit has underperformed. It's hard not to see which way the wind is blowing in this one and stay with the hot hand in Brady and the Bucs.
Taylor Heinicke, WAS vs ATL | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,500
Officially now the starting quarterback in Washington, Heinicke has been on an incredible run since taking over for the injured Carson Wentz as the Commanders have gone 4-1 over that span and now sit at 6-5 very much in the NFC Wildcard hunt. While Heinicke hasn't been great for fantasy so far this season, the matchup with the Atlanta Falcons is a good one as the Falcons are giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to QBs this season at 19.7 per game along with the twelfth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
Given how well the Commanders are playing they shouldn't have any problem moving the ball up and down the field on the Falcons. Washington's offense features an array of sneaky good skill players with the likes of Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and the rookie Jahan Dotson. Heinicke has a very solid supporting cast around him. If you'd like to bargain shop at quarterback this week so you can spend elsewhere, Heinicke feels like a great pick.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 12
Jeff Wilson Jr., MIA vs HOU | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,700
Since being traded to Miami where he was reunited with head coach Mike McDaniel, Jeff Wilson runs like he was shot straight out of a cannon. The Dolphins offense has been incredible for fantasy purposes this season and they face the Houston Texans this Sunday while coming off of a bye in Week 11. The Texans defense is giving up THE MOST fantasy points to opposing running backs this season at 28.9 per game!
Even though Raheem Mostert is a viable running back as well it is starting to look like Wilson is taking over the Miami backfield. In Week 10 against the Cleveland Browns, Wilson had 61 percent of the team's offensive snaps. In a game with fresh legs against a beaten defense, Wilson feels like an absolute smash if we are going to bargain hunt at running back this week. The Texans defense simply just cannot stop anyone. Raheem Mostert also popped up on the injury report and it is unknown at this time if he is even going to play.
Antonio Gibson, WAS vs ATL | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,400
While many were worried about Gibson's fantasy value this season, those fears can be put on hold for now as running back J.D. McKissic was put on season-ending injured reserve after a neck injury. This makes it so that Gibson only has to compete against Brian Robinson Jr. for valuable touches on Sundays. We know that Gibson is a very talented running back in real life even if Washington hasn't always treated him that way.
On Sunday the Commanders have a very favorable matchup against a Falcons defense who is not very good. While statistically they have been very middle-of-the-road it is likely because of how slow of a pace Arthur Smith chooses to operate the Atlanta offense which greatly lowers the total number of plays per game. Antonio Gibson will likely be out-touched by Robinson in the red zone, but this week feels like a great matchup for him in what could be a very high-scoring game. Gibson is a solid receiver out of the backfield and could be in line for a big game. In their Week 11 victory over the Houston Texans, Gibson played 68 percent of the team's offensive snaps. He is also on pace for a career-high in receiving with 57 total receptions on the season.
Rachaad White, TB at CLE | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,600
One of those players who was featured every week in my waiver stashes article early in the season, White appears to have won over the coaches in Tampa Bay as well as Tom Brady. Leonard Fournette was downgraded to doubtful for Tampa's Week 12 clash with the Cleveland Browns and the entire backfield might just belong to White on Sunday.
White will be fresh coming off a bye, but we should be encouraged by how well he shined in Tampa's Week 10 victory over the Seattle Seahawks in Germany. White rushed 22 times for 105 yards and looked great doing so. Like the Houston Texans defense, the Cleveland Browns simply have been unable to stop opposing running backs on the ground. The Browns are giving up the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season at 27.3 points per game! It might be a good idea to stay in the flames with White, who like Jeff Wilson above will have fresh legs coming off of a bye.
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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 12
Drake London, ATL at WAS | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,000
After heralded tight end Kyle Pitts landed on injured reserve with an MCL injury, the clear No. 1 target on the Falcons offense will now be Drake London. The rookie wide receiver has looked great in his rookie season, but he has been held back by the lack of pass volume in Arthur Smith's offense. So far through 11 games London has 39 receptions for 409 yards and 4 TDs, but it looks more impressive once you realize the Falcons are 30th in total pass attempts this season.
While the lack of passing volume in Atlanta is definitely a concern for London's fantasy value, he is priced incredibly low this week and we have to factor in that he won't be competing with Pitts anymore for targets. The Falcons may also struggle to run the ball against the Commanders defense and this could potentially be a high-scoring affair. Atlanta is fighting for a playoff spot and they may just be forced to go to the air to stay competitive in this one. With Pitts sidelined London could really thrive for the rest of the season.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ at CHI | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,800
A player who runs routes like a 10-year NFL veteran, Wilson would easily be the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year this season if he hadn't been largely held back by Jets quarterback Zach Wilson who has now benched in favor of Mike White. Zach Wilson has been nothing short of a disaster as the Jets signal-caller this season and the Jets team is simply too talented to be held back by his poor play any longer. Garrett Wilson voiced his frustration to the media after last week's 10-3 loss to the New England Patriots and rightfully so.
So far on the season Wilson has just 44 receptions for 533 yards and 2 TDs, but his numbers would be better with just about any other quarterback. We are also at a point in the season where many of the rookies are now much better than they were to start the season as they are more acclimated to the playing speed of the NFL. This is the point in the year where we can get a discount on many of the rookie WRs in DFS and ride them to victory. Even though the matchup isn't great for Wilson this week, he is the clear No. 1 target on the Jets and has nowhere to go but up with a new quarterback under center.
Treylon Burks, TEN vs CIN | DK: $4,200, FD: $6,000
Another talented rookie wide receiver, Burks was held back in the early part of the season after he landed on injured reserve with turf toe. However, Burks was activated by Thursday Night Football in Week 11 and he put on an absolute clinic in a 27-17 victory over the Green Bay Packers. Burks saw a total of 8 targets and caught 7 of them for 111 yards. While he didn't find the end zone he looked great in his first game back and had a long of 51 yards.
The Titans offense has started looking better as quarterback Ryan Tannehill has gotten healthy and Burks is the clear No. 1 target on the team even as a rookie. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has impressed so far this season as well even though the Titans are 31st in total passing attempts. If the Titans want to make a deep playoff push and even get to the Super Bowl they are going to have to start making gains in the air and not completely rely on Derrick Henry. While the matchup against the Bengals isn't the best there is likely going to be plenty of points scored in this one and Mike Vrabel will be forced to keep throwing in order to keep pace with Joe Burrow.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 12
Cole Kmet, CHI at NYJ | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,900
Will the real Cole Kmet please stand up? I publicly took my L on Cole Kmet on Twitter after Week 3 of the season and he has come back to life over the last month plus of the season to haunt me. It was a real struggle for the Bears early on in 2022, but offensive coordinator Luke Getsy seems to have figured out how to use Kmet who has a real connection with quarterback Justin Fields in the passing game. In his last three games, Kmet has a total of 5 TDs and was inevitably due for some positive TD regression after having zero touchdowns on 93 total targets last season.
This week's contest against a solid New York Jets defense won't be the easiest, but at such a great price in DFS you can bargain shop at tight end this Sunday and spend your money elsewhere. It is still unknown if Justin Fields is going to start since it was reported that he has a shoulder sprain on his non-throwing shoulder, but Kmet should still see plenty of check downs underneath if backup Trevor Siemian plays. Staying with Kmet while he is hot feels like a good move here.
David Njoku, CLE vs TB | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,500
A very talented player who the Cleveland Browns have finally figured out how to use, Njoku is on pace for the best season of his career despite missing several games this season. Njoku has established himself as the clear No. 2 option in the Browns passing game behind Amari Cooper. So far this season the Tampa Bay Bucs defense has been one of the worst against tight ends for fantasy purposes and ranks as a bottom 10 unit allowing 11.3 fantasy points to opposing tight ends per game.
Njoku is an athletic tight end who can stretch the field and has seen at least 6 targets in five of the eight games he has played this season. The Browns are going to struggle keeping up with the Bucs and Tom Brady on Sunday and this feels like the kind of game where they may move the ball a ton just by default. The Bucs D hasn't been as dominant as the one we are used to in years past and Njoku feels like another great bargain with upside on Sunday. Once he is catching passes from Deshaun Watson every Sunday, Njoku won't be at this price regularly.
Thank you for reading my weekly article. Please send me a message on Twitter if you have any more DFS or Start/Sit questions. Best of luck this week!
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