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Hello, RotoBallers. As we put Week 6 of the NFL season in the rearview, it certainly stands out as a unique one from a fantasy perspective. In this article, we'll tackle some of the week's biggest fantasy storylines with a game of "Fact or Fiction".
Perspectives can swing wildly over the course of an NFL season, with players appearing to be fantasy busts for one week only to be heroes for our team the next. After a Week 6 slate on which some fluky things happened (did you have long touchdowns from JaMycal Hasty, Kenyan Drake, and Rashid Shaheed on your Week 6 Bingo card?), we'll take a look at what is real and what is fake when it comes to the outlook of some players that might be on your fantasy rosters.
This week, we'll dive into some of the NFL's most prominent names and pick apart their respective performances to this point, as well as their fantasy outlooks for the rest of the year. Thanks for joining me, let's play some "Fact or Fiction!"
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Tom Brady Is Washed
After a stunning Week 6 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 45-year-old seemingly ageless wonder suddenly looks, well, old. After finishing 2021 as the fantasy QB3, Tom Brady exits Week 6 of the 2022 season as the QB14 in standard leagues. It’s fair to wonder if the fountain of youth he discovered in Tampa Bay has run dry.
Despite the sluggish start, there’s reason to remain optimistic about a Brady rebound. As he adjusts to life without Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown, the remaining Tampa Bay receiving corps has been steadily banged up to this point, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, and Cameron Brate all missing one or more games over the Bucs’ first six contests, while offseason acquisition Russell Gage has had very little impact.
Despite those obstacles, Brady’s pass volume has remained elite this year. Tampa Bay is throwing at the NFL’s second-highest rate to this point, putting the ball in the air at a massive 65.98 % clip. As his playmakers regain health and return to the field, they will find plenty of balls headed their way, and Brady’s numbers should climb as a result. The GOAT also draws a soft schedule the rest of the way that includes two games against Carolina, as well as matchups against Cleveland, Seattle, Arizona, and Atlanta.
Verdict: Fiction
Matthew Stafford's Struggles Will Continue
Like the aforementioned Brady, Matt Stafford has found Super Bowl-winning success with a new team. But after leading the Rams to the promised land last year, Stafford has more closely resembled his Detroit self through L.A.’s first six, as he’s tossed more interceptions (8) than touchdowns (6).
It’s hard to lay much of the blame at the veteran QB’s feet though. In addition to a noticeably-depleted receiving corps that’s without Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr., and a backfield that’s been in a constant state of flux, Stafford has been under siege in 2022 behind one of the league's worst offensive lines.
With pass blocking currently graded as 31st in the NFL by Pro Football Focus, this offensive line has been plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness. The Rams have trotted out six different starting lineups on the O-line over their first six games – and with LT Joe Noteboom going down with what appears to be a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 6 – Stafford appears to be in for a long season.
Verdict: Fact
Breece Hall's Production Will Slow Down
Dynasty experts were falling all over themselves to lock up the Iowa State product during the offseason and their high valuation appears to be well warranted. Hall has looked fantastic over the first six games of his career. He’s not only energized this long-dormant Jets’ offense but has produced RB1-type numbers in a role that continues to grow each week.
Through Week 6, Hall stands as the overall RB4 in standard leagues and the RB6 in PPR formats, despite New York easing him into the offense with just 21 carries over their first three games of the year. As the season progresses, his volume has spiked dramatically, with a role in the passing game that shouldn’t be ignored.
Hall has received 84 total opportunities since Week 3, which is tied for the third-most in the NFL. The Jets have now won three straight in large part due to his increased usage and they will be more than happy to continue feeding their talented, dual-threat rookie.
Verdict: Fiction
Ja'Marr Chase Is Back
A dominant 7/132/2 performance in his Louisiana homecoming seems to solidify that Ja’Marr Chase is “back," but did Cincy’s superstar wideout ever really leave?
To the frustration of fantasy managers that likely drafted Chase in the early-to-mid first round of their drafts, the second-year stud has sandwiched a string of underwhelming performances between spike outings in Weeks 1 and 6, although he still stands as the WR6 in PPR leagues. Despite Joe Burrow working behind a rebuilt offensive line, Chase’s underlying usage to this point has remained very similar to last year’s.
While his current aDOT of 9.8 is a bit lower than his 2021 average of 12.4, both his targets per game (10.5 2022 vs 7.5 2021) and team Air Yards share (36.7% 2022 vs 36.9% 2021) are in line with last season's usage. As this revamped Bengals offensive line continues to gel and Chase's usage remains consistently elite, I look for his output to solidify throughout the rest of the season.
Verdict: Fact
Kenneth Walker III Is For Real
Those lucky enough to have either stashed Kenneth Walker III on their bench or grab him off their league’s wire are likely feeling euphoric right now. The rookie was a revelation in his first career start for Seattle in Week 6, en route to 110 total yards and a score.
Walker looked both explosive and tough to bring down, recording three chunk plays of 15-plus yards and breaking 12 tackles against the Arizona Cardinals. The 2021 Doak Walker Award winner out of Michigan St. appears to have a stranglehold on the Seattle backfield. With Rashaad Penny done for the year and Travis Homer on IR, Walker handled 21 of the Seahawks’ 24 running back carries against Arizona for the highest team share in the NFL in Week 6.
While his true ability as a pass catcher has yet to come into focus, that's a 30,000-foot view question with an answer that we'll have to wait on. Those lucky enough to have Walker on their roster – even in PPR formats – are in terrific shape, as the rookie feels like he could be a legitimate game-changer for the Seahawks and a potential league winner for his fantasy managers.
Verdict: Fact
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