Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 3: Spreads, Totals, Parlays, and Teasers

Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 3 of the 2022 season. His favorite NFL betting picks for player spreads, money lines, parlays, teasers, and game totals.

Football season is back! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything!

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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week three of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

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Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season

• Against the Spread: 4-5
• O/U: 1-3
• Overall: 5-8

NFL Betting Picks: Spreads

Here’s where I am at so far this week. All spread and total bets are one unit, each. I typically bet one unit on sides, half units on parlays, and half-unit or a quarter-unit on props.

SF ML (-120 DK)

I am not messing with this spread as it’s moved quite a bit to where the Niners are -1.5 on the road. But it’s hard not to love San Fran here against a struggling Broncos team. Jimmy G back under center gives them stability and I think their defense against Denver’s offense is the match-up that wins them this game.

TB ML (-120 DK)

Yes, the Bucs are going to be down several pass catchers, but their defense is playing at an elite level right now. The Packers beat a bad Chicago team last week, but did very little to impress me or make me think they can beat a good team just yet. Brady finds a way to win this one and the defense comes up big again.

KC -5.5 (-110 DK)

My model has KC here by double-digits. Yes, it’s likely a product of Indy underachieving in both week one and week 2, but why do we think they’ll keep this one close after tieing Houston and losing to Jacksonville? The Chiefs are likely going to be too much for Indy on offense and this Colts offense continues to look very mediocre with Matt Ryan.

BUF -6 (-110 DK)

This one was tough and I am sure my buddy Eric Samulski doesn’t like that I am laying the points here as he is the ever-doubting Bills fan waiting for the other shoe to drop.

But the Bills have looked like world beaters in both games and are not just beating up on bad teams either (okay, Tennesee is probably kinda bad). Miami is flying high after that huge comeback, but this Bills defense is much better than Baltimore’s. I like the Bills to win by a TD and cover here, and for Miami to come back down to Earth a bit.

HOU +3 (-110 DK), ML (+130) - (half unit)

Houston has been the better team here, but they are still road dogs somehow. The Bears’ week one win looks really fluky now after they laid an egg against the Packers. Meanwhile, Houston has a tie and a close loss against two decent teams, and at least a functioning offense going for them.

I’m going with a full unit on Houston +3 and another half unit on them to win outright.

NFL Betting Picks: Totals

CLE-PIT UNDER 38.5 (-110 FD)

For this one, we have to throw conventional wisdom out the window. The last 7 games with totals this low have ALL gone under, so I am playing that trend tonight. We’ve also seen Thursday night games go under quite often in the NFL (2-0 on unders this season, too) and offenses usually have the disadvantage with a short week compared to defenses.

PHI-WAS OVER 47.5 (-110 FD)

I am going against the reverse line movement here as the total has dropped despite more action coming in on the over. My model likes this game by a wider margin than any other game on the board for an over. Philly could score at will on this Washington defense and I think the Commanders are good enough on offense to hold up their end of the deal, even if it’s garbage time points late.

DEN-SF UNDER 44.5 (-110 FD)

I also was on the GB-TB under, but that total has dropped too far for my liking all the way to 42. I’m on the under here as neither offense has looked great so far and both defenses are very competent. The Niners run the ball more than anyone in the league on situation-neutral downs, and SF ranks 31st in situation-neutral pace of play with Denver at 27th. This should be a slugfest.

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NFL Betting Picks: Teasers and Parlays

So let’s establish something here. I am going to post some money line parlays each week and at least one teaser. These bets carry more risk than straight bets, even if they seem like slam dunks! I try not to get too carried away and limit them to 3-4 games at the most. Play along if you like, or build your own. Most of these bets are half-units if you are wondering how to scale them to your other bets.

ML PARLAY: CIN/KC/BUF/PHI = (+279 DK)

You know I like the Bills and Chiefs to cover, and I think the Bengals and Eagles are solid bets to win their games, though I don’t have quite the confidence in them to cover relatively large spreads.

7-point Underdog TEASER: HOU/NYJ/DET/JAX = (+200 DK)

This moves us to Hou +10, NYJ +12.5, DET +13, and JAX +14

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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