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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Bears vs Packers showdown slate on 9/18. His Sunday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! It's so nice that football is back, and we're back at it again with some Week 2 Sunday Night Football DFS lineups. We have one of the NFL's best rivalries, as the Bears head into Green Bay to take on the Packers. The Bears won their Week 1 matchup against the 49ers, while the Packers took the loss against the Vikings last Sunday. Both teams are going to want this one, so let's take a look.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bears vs. Packers NFL DFS showdown slate on September 18th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Aaron Rodgers - QB, $15,900 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 195 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, one interception.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -4.9% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -33.1% (4th), per Football Outsiders.
We'll start off the slate with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers had probably the worst Week 1 that he's ever had in his career, struggling to make anything work in their offense and really feeling the loss of Davante Adams. I would hesitate to play Rodgers after that performance, but he simply just dominates the Bears. He's thrown for 6,549 yards, 61 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions across 27 games against them in his career, and I'm expecting him to bounce back in a big way tonight.
AJ Dillon - RB, $12,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 10 attempts, 45 rushing yards, six targets, five receptions, 46 receiving yards.
- Week 1 Data: 62.5% attempt rate, 66.67% red zone attempt rate, 100% attempt rate < 5yd line, 17.14% target rate, 16.67% red zone target rate.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: 37.7% (5th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defensive Rush DVOA: -2.3% (19th), per Football Outsiders
I've been high on AJ Dillon all off-season, and tonight should be no different. We're getting solid value here with Dillon being cheaper than Aaron Jones, despite Dillon seeing a higher attempt rate from all parts of the field, as well as a higher target share in the passing game. While I'm sure this will fluctuate throughout the season, but it's imperative we take advantage of the price difference now, particularly on DraftKings.
Other Captains/MVPs: Aaron Jones, Justin Herbert, Packers D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
Justin Fields - QB, $10,200 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: 121 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception, 11 rushes, 28 yards.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -5.8% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 34.1% (26th), per Football Outsiders.
Another guy I was high on all offseason was Bears starting QB Justin Fields. Fields had to deal with some ugly conditions and a flooded field in Week 1 against the 49ers but was able to manage to work through it and lead his team to a victory. While I don't think the Bears as a team will have the same luck against a likely angry Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, I can see Fields using his legs as well as his arm to move the ball down the field, and I believe he'll get a significant boost if the Packers are able to go up and he's able to pick up some garbage time points with his legs.
Equanimeous St. Brown - WR, $5,800 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: Three targets, one reception, 18 receiving yards, one touchdown
- Week 1 Data: 17.65% target rate, 100%% red-zone target rate, one end zone target.
- Individual Matchup (vs Rasul Douglas): 12% targets per route, 100% catch rate, 0.16 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I don't necessarily love anyone in the Bears offense tonight, but I don't hate taking a stab at Equanimeous St. Brown as another value play. St. Brown caught one of two Justin Fields touchdown passes on Sunday. While Darnell Mooney is likely to establish himself as the number-one option for Chicago, St. Brown seemed to be the number two, gathering a similar target share on Sunday. He'll match up against Rasul Douglas for a lot of his snaps tonight, and while I believe Douglas is a good corner, he does have a tendency to get burnt deep. I'll look for St. Brown to get behind Douglas and make a few big plays tonight.
Other Flex Options: Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, Sammy Watkins
DFS Value Plays
Christian Watson - WR, $4,600 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: Four targets, two receptions, 34 receiving yards.
- Week 1 Data: 11.43% target rate, 16.67% red zone target rate.
- Individual Matchup: N/A
On top of the poor offensive performance by Green Bay last Sunday, Watson dropped a would-be touchdown pass after getting behind his defender. This effectively killed Green Bay's momentum as they had trouble getting anything going afterward. Despite that, Watson showed great breakaway speed to get behind the corner, and we should take that as a positive here. This is certainly a boom or bust type of play, but I'm optimistic Watson will look to bounce back from his lackluster Week 1.
Green Bay Packers - D/ST, $4,400 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- Week 1 Stats: One sack, zero interceptions, zero fumble recoveries.
I mentioned earlier that I'm not particularly high on anyone in Chicago's offense. With that, I'll be rostering quite a bit of Green Bay's defense tonight. While they had a relatively poor performance on Sunday, with Justin Jefferson tearing their defense apart, they did manage to hold Minnesota to just 23 points. The Bears' offense isn't anywhere near as explosive as Minnesota's, and Green Bay's defense should prove a solid value play.
Other Value Plays: Mason Crosby, Dante Pettis, Cairo Santos
Enjoy your Sunday and good luck everyone!
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