Week 1 IDP Fantasy Football Rankings

September 8, 2022

Chris Gregory gives his IDP rankings and the top streamers to start along with defensive players to sit for Week 1 of the 2022 fantasy football season.

It's time again for big men in pads to grapple and hit each other while we (the fans) pretend there's nothing homo-erotic about it at all! That's right, the NFL season is beginning in just two days! That means it's time for our weekly IDP Positional Rankings to be reborn. But before we get to the rankings, let's clear up a couple of housecleaning matters.

First, there will be a change in my scoring vernacular from past seasons. In the past, I have referred to "Standard IDP Scoring” as your typical settings that reward 0.5 points for half-tackles, 1-point per full tackle, 5-6 points for turnovers, 2-points for PDs, and 4-points for sacks. That system will now be called “Casual Scoring,” but it will still be the primary root of my rankings. That said, RotoBaller has adopted its own IDP scoring that nearly mirrors my “Premium Scoring” from years past, so it will also play a factor in my rankings.

Second, my weekly IDP streamers and fades will now be in a separate article and will not be included in these rankings. However, I will still include some IDP analysis within these rankings. Now, my rankings will include our weekly Gambles and Folds for each position. Gambles will be boom-or-bust players whose boom is particularly attractive this week, while Folds will be the opposite. Those are the primary changes to our IDP columns for this season. Everything else should be status quo. So, let’s get on to our rankings!

Top Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Gamble(s) of the Week: Samson Ebukam, San Francisco 49ers

Samson Ebukam started slowly in 2021, but he registered at least half a sack in seven of his final eight games. Ebukam offered one explanation for his late bloom, noting that the Rams had played him out of position for several seasons, so it took time to transition back to defensive end in the 49ers’ scheme. Ebukam noted that DE is his more natural position, so last year’s blistering close could be a sign of things to come.

Helping Ebukam’s big play prospects in Week 1 is a Chicago Bears offensive line that Pro Football Focus ranks as the second-worst unit in the NFL. Chicago currently lists two former fifth-round picks as their starting offensive tackles, and those edge protectors have a single season of NFL experience between them. Considering that lack of experience on Chicago’s edges and Justin Fields’ 11.8% sack rate (once per 7.5 attempts), Ebukam should be one of several 49ers defenders collecting a sack this week.

Other Gambles Worth Making in Premium Scoring: Randy Gregory & Nik Bonitto

Randy Gregory and Nik Bonitto were some of our best preseason values at DL this year, and they get a premium matchup to begin the season. The Seahawks will be fielding two rookie offensive tackles when Denver comes to town, which could spell trouble if the Broncos jump out to the early lead most expect. If Geno Smith has to throw more than Pete Carroll would like, Gregory should be considered a high-end DL2 in premium scoring, while Bonitto is an attractive gamble in deeper IDP leagues.

DL Fold(s) of the Week: Aiden Hutchinson, Detroit Lions

The safest prospect in this year’s NFL Draft is anything but a safe fantasy play in Week 1. The Eagles roster one of the most underrated left tackles in football (Jordan Mailata) and a stalwart on the right (Lane Johnson), both of whom should give Detroit’s pass rush problems. To make matters worse, the Eagles were the NFL's run-heaviest offense last year, and that formula should be repeatable against Detroit.

While we project Hutchinson to have a steady NFL career with plenty of DL2 caliber fantasy seasons, we do not love his outlook in Week 1 of his rookie year. The Michigan grad will start for many IDP managers thanks to his pedigree and Heisman run, but the upside isn't there in this matchup. The potential for a sack against the Eagles isn’t high enough to merit starting him as anything more than a DL4 this week.

Top Fantasy Linebackers of the Week

LB Gamble(s) of the Week: Malcolm Rodriguez, Detroit Lions

Starting Malcolm Rodriguez in Week 1 is a big gamble, even in deeper IDP formats. Detroit currently has the sixth-round rookie listed as a backup, with starters Alex Anzalone and Chris Board ahead of him on the depth chart. So, the downside here is significant.

That said, the Lions have been cautiously touting the rookie all offseason, challenging veterans to beat him out for starter snaps. Thus, the opportunity for the rookie to play significant snaps against a linebacker-friendly Eagles offense is also there.

If Rodriguez does play, he has the skills to register double-digit tackles against Philly’s run-oriented approach. The Oklahoma State alum’s college film showed good instincts and great tackling ability, both of which will play well in this contest. All Rodriguez needs to do is beat out Board, who has just two starts in four NFL seasons, and the mediocre Anzalone. This former Cowboy is an arsenic-laced lottery ticket for fantasy, but one that could produce high-end LB2 production if it hits.

LB Fold(s) of the Week: Patrick Queen, Baltimore Ravens

According to PFF, the only thing Patrick Queen did well last season was rush the passer. Unfortunately for Queen and fantasy managers, he did that on just 8.4% of his snaps. A vast majority of the time, Queen was either in coverage or protecting against the run, both of which were areas in which he graded very negatively.

Now, PFF grades are not everything. The film and other statistics aren’t much kinder to this former first-round pick, though. While Queen did improve in 2021, once Josh Bynes became a starter, he still struggles with routine tackles (17.5% missed tackle rate) and processing in coverage (79% allowed comp. percentage). That data is concerning, as is the fact the LSU product has just two games with double-digit tackles and only four forced turnovers in two full seasons (33 games) as a starter.

This week’s matchup doesn’t help this former Tiger, either. While Joe Flacco traditionally targets Queen’s area of the field regularly, Flacco’s interception rate over the past five seasons is barely over 2%. This contest projects as a blowout with minimal opportunities for defenders to make plays, as the Ravens look to run out the clock and the Jets struggle to move the ball. Thus, Queen could end up a sack-dependent play in Week 1, with less upside than many other boom-or-bust options.

Top Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Gamble(s) of the Week: Nick Cross, Indianapolis Colts

Again, we are going relatively deep here. Nick Cross was an NFL Combine superstar, but several teams in need of a safety (we are looking at you, 49ers) repeatedly passed on Cross in the NFL Draft. However, the Colts didn’t make that mistake, and now they look to start the Maryland product in Week 1, just one day after his 21^st birthday.

Reasons to love Cross’ immediate upside are his 4.34 speed, surprising size/strength combo, and his fantasy-friendly role on Indy's defense. Remember that Khari Willis was a fantasy starter for most of 2021 in this same position, and Willis lacked Cross' physical ability.

You also have to like the Texans as a matchup, as they should give the former Terrapin several chances at an interception while providing him a solid tackle floor. Cross is a risky outside-the-box option for those looking to get a serious boom from their DB2.

DB Fold(s) of the Week: Trevon Diggs, Dallas Cowboys

We have regularly beaten up Trevon Diggs this offseason, and it's starting to feel a bit unfair. After all, Diggs does have some of the best ball skills of any DB in the NFL, and he just finished a tremendous sophomore season. What’s even better, Diggs’ high completion percentage allowed lends itself to consistent targets, and even his opponent this week (Tom Brady) tossed an interception his way.

Sadly, none of that keeps the Crimson Tide off our Folds list this week. While Diggs’ hands and short history with Brady are encouraging, Brady is the GOAT for a reason. The seven-time champ has a long memory, an insanely low interception rate of 1.8%, a bad throw rate that sits amongst the best in the NFL, and his receiving corps is deep enough to avoid Diggs all day. We are projecting Brady will do just that, giving Diggs only a handful of opportunities/targets to collect fantasy points this week.

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