RADIO
I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you are already familiar with. Just in case you're not, Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.
By now, with free agency and the draft finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs are varying during the last few days as we start to gear up for our fantasy draft season. In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at some tight end fallers.
Tight End Fantasy Football ADP Fallers
Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos
Did anyone expect any other thing that both Denver's and Seattle's TE1 are getting the nod in this column? I don't think so, although, of course, Albert-O's case is more interesting than Fant's. Albert saw the Broncos trade Drew Lock to Seattle while also not re-signing Teddy Bridgewater (left as a free agent). They got mighty Russell Wilson in return, which I don't need to say is an improvement at the quarterback position... and also sent Noah Fant to Seattle as part of the trade package to land Wilson. What's the matter with AO's ADP drop, then?
While the ADP has gone down a full round and a half, Albert is still getting off draft boards as the TE12 and getting drafted before Fant these days with around the 100th overall pick. Judging by the Broncos' draft-day decisions, it's not clear if Denver is too convinced of Albert's upside. The Broncos drafted TE Greg Dulcich with a third-round pick and there are already whispers out there saying that the rookie might actually be the starter in Week 1 because he's a better pass-catcher than Albert-O. None of the two tight ends projects as a TE1 out of context, let alone in a timeshare if that ends being the case. Not worth drafting whatever the ADP ends up being.
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks
Pretty much everything about Albert-O (and Greg Dulcich) that I already discussed above is going to happen to Noah Fant, only in reverse. Fant will have the go-to role at the position in Seattle, yes, but he's also going to keep receiving passes from Drew Lock. I was a Will Dissly truther not long ago, but it all points toward a very murky direction with the Seahawks' TE2 so this is not a competition problem, but rather a QB-talent one.
It could be said that Fant can still play to TE1 levels if everything clicks for him, but having Lock as his main passer just caps his upside to a low-end TE1 finish, if at all. Yes, he's been the TE16, TE8, and TE12 in his three seasons as a pro in Denver, but forecasting that happening in Seattle next season, let alone spending a top-half draft pick on Fant this summer, feels too rich to my blood. At least while Tyler Lockett/D.K. Metcalf stay in Seattle, I'd err on the safe side of things and fade Fant. If one (or the two) gets traded, though, it might start making more sense to pay for some Fant shares.
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
There is not a lot going on here. Knox's ADP got a little bump a few days ago, but it's slowly but surely recovering and will most probably end at the position it originally was. Buffalo inked O.J. Howard as a free agent to have some depth at the position but that's pretty much it. Tommy Sweeney was last year's Bills TE2, it's now Howard, and Knox will keep getting the most reps, opportunities, targets, touches, snaps, etc... at the position.
Knox is getting off draft boards as the TE10 these days but his production has only once caught up to that stock--last season when he was the TE11 of the season even though he missed two games entirely. Knox, it must be said, had a year completely out of his prior standards. Knox scored nine TDs on 71 targets and 49 receptions for a quite high 12.7 TD%, and I'll be shocked if he reaches those super-efficient marks once more next season. Buffalo added a bona fide short-distance pass catcher in Jamison Crowder, and that will hurt Knox's upside and usage a bit as I see it. Other tight ends drafted below his ADP look better to me--Pat Freiermuth and Mike Gesicki to name a couple of them.
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