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Mark Kieffer's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for March 18th, 2022 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, March 17th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/18/22
We have a six-game slate tonight. We have two games starting at 7:00 pm Eastern one at 8:00 pm Eastern and 9:00 pm Eastern, then one at 10:00 pm Eastern and one at 10:30 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Jeremy Swayman- DK $8.0K|| FD $7.9K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
Jeremy Swayman is priced down a little, and as I have said before, I typically like to get someone that isn't quite at the very top as goalie is so high variance. Winnipeg is No. 11 in the NHL in shots per game (32.87). Goalie is always a balancing act; getting wins is good but you also want to get saves too. If you allow one goal and get just 18 saves, you aren't going to score many fantasy points. I would rather have a goalie that allows a couple of goals but gets 30 saves for example.
Anyway, Swayman is 17-8-3 with a 2.09 GAA and .925 SV%. Boston is also favored to win this game. I am willing to accept some blowup risk and hope that if Swayman can have a game close to his season averages, it's going to be a good night for him.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Markstrom (DK $8.5K || FD $8.2K), Bobrovsky (DK $8.4K || FD $8.4K), Francouz (DK $8.3K || FD $8.5K), Raanta (DK $8.1K || FD $8.1K), Forsberg (DK $7.8K || FD $7.5K - GPP).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Elias Lindholm - DK $7.0K || FD $8.1K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Nathan MacKinnon is on the slate and outside of GPPs, I do not think it is necessary to pay up to him. Lindholm has scored 63 points (30 goals, 33 assists) in 60 games played and averages 2.87 shots on goal per game. While he does not provide the shots on goal upside as some of the other skaters on the slate, he provides a nice floor. He gets double-digit fantasy points almost every game and does not turn in many zeros. Buffalo is No. 3 in the NHL in shots allowed per game, the Flames have a chance to put up some goals and Lindholm is likely to score a point.
Nazem Kadri - DK $6.8K || FD $8.3K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Nazem Kadri makes for a better DraftKings than FanDuel play due to his price. In fact, he is underpriced by maybe $500 or so on DraftKings. This is a way to get exposure to the Avs without spending up on MacKinnon at Center. Kadri has 74 points (23 goals, 51 assists) in 59 games played. He also averages 3.27 shots on goal per game. I imagine Kadri will be somewhat of a popular play on the slate, especially on DraftKings. In a cash game, it would be wise to get some exposure to Colorado.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): MacKinnon (DK $9.2K || FD $10.0K), Barkov (DK $8.4K || FD $9.1K), Bennett (DK $5.9K || FD $6.4K), Dubois (DK $5.8K || FD $6.6K), Zegras (DK $4.3K || FD $5.9K), Backlund (DK $3.5K || FD $5.0K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
David Pastrnak - DK $7.9K|| FD $8.3K
Opponent -Winnipeg Jets
After Pastrnak had a disappointing outing against Minnesota, we get a price decrease on him in a nice matchup against Winnipeg. As stated earlier, Winnipeg allows shots on goal at a higher than average rate. Their penalty kill is No. 22 in the league (76.5%), and Boston's main objective on offense it seems is to set up Pastrnak for shots, as he averages 4.38 shots on goal per game. Oh, and he also averages a point per game; he has scored 33 goals and grabbed 28 assists in 61 games played.
Johnny Gaudreau - DK $7.6K || FD $8.9K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Calgary is implied for 4.3 goals, so they are going to show up a lot throughout the article. Gaudreau is on the top line and top power play. Buffalo allows many shots on goal and has one of the worst penalty kills in the league (No. 21, 76.7%). Gaudreau has 79 points (27 goals, 52 assists) in 60 games played. He also averages 3.3 shots on goal per game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Svechnikov (DK $7.5K || FD $7.5K), Meier (DK $7.4K || FD $9.0K), Rantanen (DK $7.2K || FD $8.6K), Huberdeau (DK $6.7K || FD $8.8K), Toffoli (DK $4.8K || FD $6.3K), Nichushkin (DK $4.7K || FD $5.9K), Terry (DK $3.8K || FD $6.1K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Cale Makar - DK $7.4K || FD $7.0K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Cale Makar is by far the best defenseman on the slate. He has 66 points (21 goals, 45 assists) in 58 games played averaging 2.98 shots on goal per game. There is not much else to add here as this is a game in which Colorado should score and Makar has a great chance at getting an assist with his other peripheral stats.
MacKenzie Weegar- DK $4.8K || FD $5.4K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
MacKenzie Weeger is underpriced. I am not predicting any kind of a breakout or anything, but he averages 2.4 shots on goal and 2.05 blocked shots per game. He is getting over 20 minutes of time on the ice per game, and in two of his last five games, he has been out there for 26 and 27 minutes respectively. A good floor option for a cash game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ekblad (DK $6.4K || FD $6.3K), Toews (DK $5.8K || FD $6.5K), Burns (DK $5.6K || FD $5.9K - GPP only as part of a stack, Karlsson is good too), McAvoy (DK $5.3K || FD $6.2K), Andersson (DK $5.0K || FD $6.1K), Middleton (DK $3.1K || FD $4.2K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
Calgary (4.3 goals implied), Colorado (4.1 goals implied), and Florida (4.0 goals implied) should be the most popular teams. If they aren't, I would stack whichever is less popular.
After that, there is a jumble of teams with implied totals between three and four goals: Ottawa, Philadelphia, Boston, Carolina, and Winnipeg
The teams with the lowest implied totals are Buffalo (2.4) and San Jose (2.6).
If playing in a small tournament, you might want to stack which of the four-goal implied teams that seem to be relatively overlooked and look for leverage points in other spots. If playing in a large tournament, you are probably going to need to take a stand of some of the teams in the middle in hopes that they have a ceiling game. If playing in a very large tournament, you might need to roster some San Jose or Buffalo, at least as a filler stack, in hopes to get first place.
Here are my favorite stacks tonight
Calgary 1/PP 1: Buffalo has the No. 21 penalty kill (73.7%). Line 1 has the most goals as an even-strength line combination, and they are correlated to the power play in a favorable matchup there as well. They are likely to be very chalky and you might need to fade depending on what kind of contest you are playing in.
Colorado 1 or 2: I do not recommend doing a power-play stack. San Jose has the No. 2 penalty kill in the league (87.0%). If Colorado is scoring goals, it will likely be even strength. Colorado 2 is less expensive, but Colorado 1 has more upside.
Florida 2/PP1: This is Florida's most talented line. They are likely to be the most popular stack on Florida (who will likely be one of the most popular teams to stack).
Ottawa 1: Implied for 3.4 goals, playing at home, going against shaky goaltending.
Boston 2: Winnipeg allows the 9th most shots on goal per game while Boston shoots the 3rd most shots per game.
San Jose PP 1: This is my sneaky stack. Colorado's penalty kill is No. 20 (77.8%). San Jose has one of the lowest implied totals, this stack could get you nothing. This is a stack to consider in a large field tournament and going for first place. Otherwise, pay no mind.
