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Saturday was one of my worst outings on the season and I should have known better than to feel really confident when the weekends are always when it seems like weird stuff happens. It was a rough start when the Spurs rested their big guns and I had to pull that bet, then the Wizards rested Porzingis and the rest of their team forgot how to play basketball as the lowly Blazers rolled them. I only hit one of three props, too, (thank goodness for Klay Thompson) and I had to take a few days to regroup after that beating (but also I went out of town on a trip with my wife, which was much needed.)
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, March 15, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 130-122-2
- Against the Spread 67-56-2
- Over/Under 28-39
- Other/Props 35-28
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Memphis Grizzlies (-7.5) @ Indiana Pacers (234.5 total)
This is a tough slate to pick and I have to where the numbers take me. My projections have Detroit and New Orleans as exactly the right amount of underdogs, but leave me with two home dogs who might not be getting enough respect.
We will start with the Pacers, who are +7.5 at home against Memphis. The big news here is that Ja Morant is doubtful and that has to ding the Grizzlies a bit as he's been the little engine driving that big locomotive all season. However, Memphis has fared just fine without him and got Dillon Brooks back into the lineup this weekend. So Memphis should still win here, but can they cover?
That really comes down to the Indiana side of things. Their own star point guard is also in question here as Malcolm Brogdon could miss. If Brogdon is out, all bets are off as he not only elevates their defense but gives them more balance on offense and creates opportunities for teammates. But if Brogdon plays, this Pacers team is scrappy enough to keep things close at home. I don't think you'll be able to wait on that news to get them at this number, but if you're feeling frisky then grabbing Indiana now at +7.5 makes sense. They're scoring the ball well and Memphis's defense has been worse than usual over their last ten games.
The Pick: IND +7.5 (-110)
Brooklyn Nets (-10) @ Orlando Magic (230.5 total)
Detroit has not been the only Eastern conference doormat who has been playing better of late. The Magic have won two of their last three games and in the month of March, they've also beaten Toronto, lost by three points to Phoenix, and lost by two points to the Sixers in overtime on Sunday.
That brings us to today as they're 10-point underdogs at home against the Nets. While Brooklyn will have Kyrie for this game and KD is playing at a high level, their defense has been pretty lousy while the Magic have been much improved on offense. This just feels like way too many points based on the recent form of Orlando and I'd much rather back the home dogs than lay that many points on a road favorite. I'll take the Magic here at home to cover and hope that I don't get burned by backing bad teams again!
The Pick: Magic +10 (-110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Detroit Pistons (+12.5) @ Miami Heat (215 total)
If you haven't been betting on the Pistons to cover, you've been missing out on the ride. It gets dicey sometimes, but this team is one of the most improved of the bottom-dwellers this season and has been winning or covering a lot lately.
But I'm on them +12.5 points today, not against the #1 seed in the East, the mighty Miami Heat who should be at full strength for the first time in a week, too.
I have another angle here. I'm betting on Detroit's improved offensive efficiency to eclipse a rather low team total. Right now, Caesar's has Detroit's total set at only 100.5 points. While Miami is an excellent defensive club, they've allowed 107 points per game to opponents over their last ten games which is up from 104.8 on the year. Detroit, during the recent 10-game span, has averaged 109 points per game and has gone over 101 in eleven straight! I think they can get there tonight, even if they don't cover. I'm backing the Pistons to hit their total.
The Pick: DET team total OVER 100.5 points (-115)
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
3:00 PM update
Tyus Jones over 6.5 assists (+100) - Jones should start for Memphis tonight once Ja Morant is ruled out and if he's going to play around 30 minutes as the starter tonight, I think he could cruise to 7+ assists in this elite game environment.
Jaxson Hayes over 16.5 points/rebounds (-120) - Hayes has smashed this number two games in a row and continues to see some more minutes with Ingram out of the lineup.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
The Pick: Nets/Heat/Suns money line parlay (-114)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
(click either chart to enlarge)
I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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