RADIO
Matt's dynasty fantasy football wide receiver risers and fallers for May, 2025. His fantasy outlooks for top 2025 fantasy football wide receivers (WRs).
There are different checkpoints through the NFL offseason that fantasy managers need to pay particularly close attention to. For starters, there is the beginning of free agency, as teams take the first step in instilling hope into their fan bases. Then, once again, after the NFL draft, players who were pencilled in for specific roles could find themselves replaced by newer and potentially cheaper options.
As is the case every offseason, the dynasty market will fluctuate, and fantasy managers need to stay on top of their rosters and be fluid with any news regarding their fantasy assets, especially regarding the wide receiver position.
Before checking on those wide receiver risers and fallers, follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your dynasty football needs. For a deeper dive into dynasty strategy, rankings, and trade tactics, check out our complete Dynasty Fantasy Football Guide.
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Dynasty Risers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba took over the Seattle Seahawks' WR1 role in 2024, leading the team in receptions (100), targets (137), touchdowns (6), and receiving yards (1,130). Njigba also managed a 22.4% target share, competing with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who now apply their trade in Pittsburgh and Tennessee, respectively.
1,000+ Yard Receivers last season with a Drop Rate under 2.0%:
🟢 A.J. Brown (0.0%)
⚫️ Jakobi Meyers (0.0%)
🔵 Amon-Ra St. Brown (0.7%)
🔴 Trey McBride (1.4%)
🟢 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1.5%) pic.twitter.com/YFdQPwZgOF— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) March 20, 2025
Seattle did add some receivers during free agency in the form of Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. At this point in their careers, neither is a real threat to take any food from Njigba's table. Kupp is nearing that dreaded wide receiver age cliff, which likely comes sooner than later, considering his recent knee issues. While Valdes-Scantling has never amounted to much more than a deep threat on the odd occasion, which should help stretch the field and open up more opportunities for Njigba.
When afforded the opportunity last season, Njigba was among the elite regarding deep routes. We know Klint Kubiak loves running the ball and taking deep shots down the field. Having Sam Darnold as the trigger man on those deep shots is all the more reason to get excited, as Darnold led the league in deep passing the previous season.
Jauan Jennings & Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco
Deebo Samuel Sr. was traded this offseason, moving Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall up a peg on the pecking order. Considering Jennings's splits when Samuel or Aiyuk were out of the 49ers' lineup, you have a league winner. During Weeks 10-17, Jennings accounted for a 28.5% target share and an air yards share of 34%. During the season, Jennings finished with 198.5 fantasy points and averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game over that eight-game stretch.
In six contests where the 49ers feature Jennings, Pearsall, and George Kittle with Brock Purdy under center, Pearsall averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game and a first-read target share of 17.6%. Meanwhile, Jennings saw an insane 31.3% first-read target share and 13.5 fantasy points per.
Sure, Christian McCaffrey's return somewhat caps both Pearsall and Jennings' ceilings, but McCaffrey has missed significant time in recent years, and opportunity is just one play away.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Sure, there are injury uncertainties surrounding Derek Carr's availability, and the whole Spencer Rattler/Jake Haener experiment looks to be a non-starter. Recently drafted Tyler Shough is a rookie coming in with an injury history of his own, yet Chris Olave continues to see a degree of asset recovery.
Regardless of whoever lines up under center in 2025 or 2026, the Saints will lean heavily on Chris Olave, who just had his fifth-year option exercised by the team. The Saints' franchise quarterback is not likely on the roster; that said, Shough gives the Saints a good chance at selecting Arch Manning come 2026 or whenever he decides to enter the draft. Besides Manning, the 2026 draft presents teams with better options at quarterback than what was available this past draft.
Listening to Kellen Moore gush over Olave and the impact he expects this season is promising for fantasy managers. The Saints added no competition for targets, so it looks like Olave, Alvin Kamara, and Rashid Shaheed will be tasked with carrying the offensive load.
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
We may not know who the Browns' quarterback is going forward, but we do know that the Browns didn't add any real competition for Jerry Jeudy or his target forecast in 2025. People tend to forget that while Jeudy is entering his sixth NFL season, the Browns receiver just turned 26 in April. For comparison, Ladd McConkey, who had one of the best rookie seasons last year, will turn 24 in November.
One of the biggest fears fantasy managers had with rostering Jeudy was the fear that the Browns could have added Travis Hunter to the mix, which did not happen. What does that mean? This means that Jeudy is in line for another 21.5% target share, a 26.1% first-read target share, and an air yard share that should exceed 32.5%. From Weeks 8-17, Jeudy averaged 19.2 fantasy points per game and finished with 173 fantasy points, marking him as the WR5 in fantasy during that period.
Jerry Jeudy might have 600 targets this season pic.twitter.com/HJmBkeKnzN
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 27, 2025
Dynasty Fallers
DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
How many mouths are too many? For Caleb Williams, there is no such thing. For DJ Moore and even Rome Odunze, the Bears are replacing Keenan Allen with Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland with their first and second-round selections.
In 2024, Moore accounted for a 24.4% target share, a receiving market share of 27.2%, and had a 30% team touchdown market share. With the additional mouths to feed in this offense, fantasy managers should expect some regression regarding Moore's fantasy outlook in 2025, with more repercussions potentially coming in the 2026 season.
It is unlikely to happen, but Chicago could save more than $20 million against its cap should it find a trade partner after June 1. Again, I'm not saying it happens, but sometimes you have to follow the money.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin is coming off an injury in 2024 that cost the Pro Bowl receiver 10 games. He is also returning to a squad that saw Jalen McMillan post eight touchdown receptions in his absence and a receiver room that just added Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson during the draft. Egbuka is projected to be a large slot receiver, which could cut into Godwin's slot usage.
Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield love this, but fantasy managers don't, considering Mike Evans also remains among the mouths that need to be fed, and he is going to get his 1,000 yards at someone's expense, one way or another. Theo Gremminger of Fantasy Points pointed out that in 2023, under Dave Canales, Godwin's average fantasy points per game dipped to 12.3 per outing, working predominantly as an outside receiver compared to 19.7 during his limited action last season.
Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
When you are a first-round selection and fail to live up to expectations, teams will look to replace you. The NFL is a cruel business. Last season, Quentin Johnston averaged 10.2 fantasy points per game. However, looking at the game logs, that production may not be sustainable, considering eight of his 55 receptions (14.5%) were touchdown grabs. That means 27% of his fantasy production came on those eight receptions.
While Johnston turns 24 before the start of the season, he will need to compete for targets with McConkey, who proved himself trustworthy in Justin Herbert's eyes, especially after that nine-catch, 197-yard performance in the AFC Wild Card game. McConkey is almost certain to receive the lion's share of the targets, but an old friend in Mike Williams, should he remain healthy, is a real threat to Johnson's touchdown production, as is newly minted prospect Tre Harris.
When Harris was on the field last season, he was arguably the best receiver in the nation, finishing in the top 10 in yards per game (128.8), yards per route run (5.12), targets (10.4), and receptions (8.4).
Tre Harris stats from last season:
8 games
60 receptions
1030 yards
17.17 yards per catch
7 touchdownspic.twitter.com/Q7Uoe0yELd— ChargersMuse (@ChargersMuse) April 26, 2025
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