Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Part 3

May 17, 2025

Dan analyzes 5 pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers who are surging for Week 8. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks for Nathan Eovaldi, Joe Ryan, more.

The reception for this piece has been overwhelmingly positive, so I figured I would keep it going yet another week. Thanks to so many of you for the kind words, and I am glad these breakdowns can be valuable to managers trying to gauge the value of their starting pitchers.

I have had a few folks push back on the term "breakouts" as we are dealing with pitchers who have already established themselves as quality MLB starters. Context is everything, so let's put that term in context for this article. We are discussing the fantasy value of these pitchers, so if a player is returning top-50 value despite being drafted in the 150 range, then I think it's fair to say that they have "broken out" in terms of becoming a fantasy value.

The other reason I use the term "break out" is that it rhymes with "fake out." What I attempt to do with the analysis for each player is decide whether or not they have regression coming to their statistics and, therefore, are performing "above their head" in terms of their ranking. So, let's keep doing it with five more pitchers this week who are producing some really good results.

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

2025 Fantasy Stats: 55.2 IP, 4 W, 60 K, 1.78 ERA, 0.75 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 2.54 SIERA, 3.24 xERA, 28.6% K%, 48.6% GB%, 98 Stuff+

What a tremendous start for the pitcher I affectionately refer to as "Nasty Nate" Eovaldi. He's on pace to shatter all of his personal bests, but it's only been nine starts, and he's only about a third of the way through his season, assuming he stays healthy and makes around 30 starts for the Rangers this year.

The control from Eovaldi here stands out the most, as his 2.4% BB% has gone a long way toward helping him post the best WHIP in baseball. His 0.75 mark is only a few ticks behind Pedro Martinez's record of .737 in 2000.

Nathan Eovaldi lowers his ERA to 1.78. His 0.75 WHIP leads all qualified starters in MLB. pic.twitter.com/nRVJWdO7cx

— MLB (@MLB) May 11, 2025

I'm not implying he will finish anywhere close to this mark or that he's as good a peak Pedro, but I am just trying to make sure we understand how outstanding he's been through nine starts.

Eovaldi is a smart player who is maximizing his stuff by throwing the fewest four-seam fastballs of his career. This is the right move as his pitch gets hit the hardest, and his average velocity has dipped into the 93 mph range. By featuring the splitter as often as the fastball, he's now throwing each pitch less than 30% of the time, which is something we just don't see that often.

His splitter and curveball have been fantastic, so featuring his offspeed stuff makes a ton of sense. He's getting a healthy dose of strikeouts with a strong 14% SwStr% while keeping the ball on the ground with a 48.6% GB%. The run prevention is real, even if he can't keep up this low of an ERA forever.

Verdict: He's probably at his peak performance right now, so he has nowhere to go but down in the rankings. However, that doesn't mean that he's faking anyone out. His underlying numbers suggest he can continue producing a solid ERA and WHIP, with a healthy dose of strikeouts. He would have to fall off a cliff not to provide a great return on your investment, and I simply don't see that happening.

Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals

2025 Fantasy Stats: 54.1 IP, 44 W, 56 K, 1.66 ERA, 1.1 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.43 SIERA, 3.36 xERA, 25.6% K%, 43.2% GB%, 96 Stuff+

How are the Royals doing this? They took Cole Ragans, whom the Rangers had given up on after trying to convert him to a reliever, and turned him into a strikeout machine. And now they've taken Kris Bubic, who floundered as a starter for several seasons before finding success as a reliever last year, and have turned him into an incredibly effective starting pitcher.

Kris Bubic easily dealt with a lineup full of RHH hitters today as he struck out 9 Astros over 6.1 IP. Bubic's fastball and changeup were on point as they each returned +50.0 Whiff%

He lowered his season ERA to 1.66 pic.twitter.com/XpK3Oqm8Nl

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) May 14, 2025

For those waiting for the other shoe to drop on Bubic, he pitched another masterpiece against the Astros. I am not saying he can sustain an ERA under 2.00 with below-average "Stuff" and a fly-ball lean, but the ERA indicators both have him in the low threes.

The most impressive part might be that he's doing what he's doing while throwing a 92 mph fastball, and he doesn't feature a true wipeout breaking ball that elicits a huge whiff rate.

Bubic's extension and induced vertical break on his four-seamer help it play faster, and other than his changeup, it's been his best pitch with a 31.3% whiff rate. This year, he brought back his gyro slider to show hitters two different types of breaking balls at different velocities. With his fastball having solid rising action due to the IVB, and both his sweeper and changeup having above-average vertical drop, Bubic really can throw hitters off.

Verdict: It would be a stretch to expect Bubic to finish the year inside the top 50 in roto league rankings, but I also don't think he falls that far out of the mix. His success is somewhat sustainable, and even some regression to the mean won't stop him from being a very productive fantasy asset this season.

Michael King, San Diego Padres

2025 Fantasy Stats: 50.1 IP, 4 W, 56 K, 2.32 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.39 SIERA, 3.10 xERA, 28% K%, 38.9% GB%, 101 Stuff+

We finally get to a pitcher who was drafted in the early rounds and is producing the value that he should be based on his ADP. Michael King surrendered three earned runs in two of his first three starts, but has not done so since while racking up some impressive strikeout numbers. He's not a fireballer, but a master of horizontal movement on his pitches. I'll spare you another chart and instead just drop this video of his sinker and sweeper overlaid.

Michael King, 92mph Two Seamer and 84mph Sweeper, Individual Pitches + Overlay

Two Seamer = 18 inches of run
Sweeper = 17 inches of break pic.twitter.com/fhfn1m5jHT

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 13, 2025

He tunnels those pitches beautifully, and they move so sharply in opposite directions. His changeup is a quality pitch with excellent horizontal movement, too, as it averages 19.9 inches of gloveside run.

I have a couple of issues with King's profile, and I will admit that I am nitpicking here, but we are talking about a pitcher who has high expectations to live up to based on all the hype surrounding him this offseason.

For as good as his sinker/sweeper/changeup trio is, his four-seam fastball, which he still features 26% of the time, is bad. It has below-average velocity and not enough movement in either direction to make up for it, which is why it gets hit hard. This season, opposing hitters have a .278 xBA, .675 xSLG, and .439 xwOBA against the four-seamer. And four of the five home runs that King has allowed have come on the heater.

My other main issue is the control. While an 8% BB% isn't terrible (it's right around league-average), it's easily the worst mark of any of the pitchers featured in this article. I will maintain that control is often what separates the elite pitchers in this league from the rest. Eventually, those walks will turn into more earned runs allowed and will begin to tick up that WHIP.

I'm not going to dive too deep into batted ball data, but he's trending towards more fly balls and fewer groundballs, which would be fine if he were a true power pitcher. But with his arsenal, he should probably be leaning more into his sinker and trying to follow the Logan Webb mold, in my opinion.

Verdict: King should continue to provide solid value in fantasy leagues, but I am going to label him a "fake out" here only because I think he sees enough regression to his ERA and WHIP that he finishes outside the top 75 and fails to meet the expectations placed on him with his lofty ADP.

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

2025 Fantasy Stats: 46 IP, 3 W, 54 K, 2.74 ERA, 0.89 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 2.77 SIERA, 3.17 xERA, 30.3% K%, 33.6% GB%, 105 Stuff+

On the surface, Joe Ryan and King might appear to be similar pitchers. Both guys rely on movement and not velocity to get hitters out, and are getting similar results so far.

But Ryan has been a better pitcher in several different ways and has the ability, if he can stay healthy, to be a true ace.

4 arms are top 10 in K% and BB%: Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Hunter Greene & Joe Ryan! pic.twitter.com/sUVdP40Mzu

— Sam Fosberg (@discussbaseball) May 13, 2025

Ryan has always featured elite control as his career walk rate is just 5.4%. But this year, he's turned it up (or better yet, dialed it down) to just 2.8%. Not many guys can do that while still carrying a 30% K%.

I wrote about Ryan this preseason as the "King of the First Strike," as he was one of the top pitchers in baseball last season and got ahead 0-1 on hitters at a whopping 70% rate. But if you are going to live in the strike zone as often as Ryan does, you better have elite velocity or movement. For Ryan, it's movement, and he's posting an outstanding 76.3% Z-Contact% so far this season.

Unlike King, Ryan has an outstanding four-seam fastball, and he's featuring it more than ever this year - 59% of the time! His nearly sidearm delivery at 27 degrees creates an average of 12.5 inches of arm-side run. That's as much as some pitchers' two-seamers but without the vertical drop, so it rides up and in to right-handed hitters.

Ryan's four-seamer has held hitters to a .168 batting average and a .268 xwOBA. The pitch has a 105 Stuff+ rating and a 113 Location+ rating, both are top-10 marks among qualified pitchers. He complements it with two excellent breaking pitches that have vastly different trajectories - his splitter and sweeper.

Joe Ryan, Dirty 87mph Splitter. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/vN66z2Fe5Z

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 10, 2025

Whether this is a true splitter or a "split-change," all that matters is that it's been quite effective as his secondary pitch to lefties. But he's cut down on his usage of it in favor of more fastballs. Based on the batted ball results, it has been a great decision.

The real key to his strikeout prowess, however, is the sweeper. It was already a "good pitch" last season, but he's added an additional three inches of horizontal and vertical movement to the pitch, making it one of the best pitches in baseball.

Joe Ryan's Ungodly Sweeper with 30 inches of Horizontal Break...with Tail. 😳 pic.twitter.com/rBCq28amFt

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 27, 2025

Ryan's sweeper has a 40% whiff rate, and the best part to me is that he's not overdoing it with just 15% usage. We often focus on how veteran pitchers diversify their arsenal in an attempt to lower their overall usage of each pitch (as Eovaldi has done in the first section), but for Ryan, going fastball-heavy has increased the effectiveness of his two other main out pitches since hitters are seeing them less often.

Verdict: We saw some glimpses of Ryan breaking out as a top 10 pitcher last season before he got hurt, but I think this is the season that it happens (good health provided). He has all the tools to continue getting elite results, and I think he can continue his upward trajectory towards true stardom.

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

2025 Fantasy Stats: 50.2 IP, 4 W, 50 K, 2.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP

2025 Advanced Stats: 3.33 SIERA, 2.86 xERA, 25.4% K%, 33.6% GB%, 105 Stuff+

It's a tad ironic that we end here with Bryan Woo after featuring two guys with elite movement on their pitches because Woo is not that guy. However, he's still getting some fantastic results through the first two months of the season. But can he keep it up?

Bryan Woo is the only pitcher in baseball to go at least 6 innings in every outing this year. 🔥🔱#mariners #seattle #tridentsup pic.twitter.com/oBei91ahI5

— The Couch GM (@The_Couch_GM) May 14, 2025

Woo is a unique pitcher because he's effectiveness stems from his control. It's not just throwing strikes and avoiding walks (which he does superbly to a 4.1% BB%), it's locating his pitches within the zone but in the spots where hitters can do the least amount of damage.

Look at it this way, Woo is not getting the same volume of swings and misses as these other top pitchers. His 11.8% SwStr% and 25.7% CSW% suggest that his current 25% K% might not even be sustainable. His 85% Z-Contact% is quite mediocre.

Yet, hitters struggle to make solid contact against him. His 22.5% soft contact rate is the eighth-best amongst qualified starters. His "stuff" is good, but his location is tremendous, as evidenced by his 109 Location+ rating (10th-best in all of MLB).

Woo does have solid velocity on his four-seamer and sinker, throwing both in the 95 mph range and pounding the zone with these two pitches 69% of the time. He throws a tighter 88 mph slider and a bigger-breaking sweeper at 84 mph, both at 11% usage, while also adding a hard changeup at 89 mph as his fifth pitch.

The one area I'd wish he'd improve on is the GB%. He was at 40% last season but is only at 33% right now. Pitching in Seattle certainly helps to suppress home runs, but being that fly-ball prone is probably not a good idea when you rely on hitting your spots as much as Woo does.

Verdict: Only 10 pitchers in all of baseball have an xERA under 3.00, with Woo being one of them. What he may lack in strikeout upside, he makes up for with elite control and a sparkling WHIP. I think he has the talent and tools to continue to deliver top-notch results, and I think he can continue to climb the ranks this season with his ability to eat innings and provide elite run prevention.

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