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Joey Pollizze identifies three overvalued running backs that could bust in 2023 fantasy football. Where should you draft these NFL RBs if not at their current ADP?
Fantasy football is all about maximizing value. If you drafted a player like Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs in the fifth or sixth round last year, chances are you made the playoffs and likely made the championship. Jacobs was the RB20 off the board in 2022 drafts. So when he finished as the RB3 in all formats, that was a steal.
The same could apply to players that busted or didn’t finish reportedly as close to where you drafted them. New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (RB18 in half-PPR) and Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins (RB52 in half-PPR) were drafted in the early-to-middle rounds but had really down years.
This article will tackle three running backs going too high in drafts who could bust in 2023. For each player, there will also be a list of players that I prefer instead at that draft spot.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
ADP 33.3 (ESPN), 29.8 (Sleeper)
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris was a fantasy stud in his first NFL season. He finished as the RB3 in PPR formats, totaling over 380 touches and 1,650 yards from scrimmage in 2021. But in 2022, injuries and poor offensive line play hurt Harris in fantasy. His 13.1 PPR fantasy points ranked as the RB19.
Harris’ poor 2022 fantasy season -- which saw him finish with just two games above 20 PPR points -- doesn’t seem to affect his average draft position in leagues this season, though. The 25-year-old back is often the 11th running back off the board in drafts in 2023.
But his ADP seems too high for a player who could lose touches to up-and-coming back Jaylen Warren. Warren has been electric during training camp and Pittsburgh’s preseason games. Harris will be the team’s lead back this season, of course. But don’t be surprised if his backup gets more work than usual in 2023.
It appears Harris could lose some work this season, especially with back-to-back 300-plus touch seasons to begin his career. I’d prefer players like tight end Mark Andrews, wide receiver Calvin Ridley, or electric rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs over the Steelers running back in the third round.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
ADP 42.6 (ESPN), 29.2 (Sleeper)
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has surely seen his ADP drop on ESPN over the past week. After the arrival of Ezekiel Elliott, it makes a lot of sense, too.
For starters, do we really trust head coach Bill Belichick? Belichick never seems to stick with just one running back. We’ve seen that over the years with Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead in 2018. Even in 2013, Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount both had over 800 scrimmage yards that season.
I personally loved Stevenson heading into the 2023 season. He was coming off an RB7 PPR fantasy finish and ranked fourth among running backs with 65 catches and third with 88 targets. And while he should still see a ton of targets again due to having checkdown king Mac Jones under center, Elliott's possible timeshare with the young running back scares me.
As inefficient as Elliott was on the ground last season, he crossed the goal line 12 times. He’s going to steal goal-line touches away from Stevenson in 2023. And again, do we really trust Belichick? Stevenson's third to fourth-round value is just a bit too high, especially with players like Andrews, Ridley, and Gibbs still on the board.
D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
ADP 83.1 (Yahoo), 62 (Sleeper)
If you’re playing your fantasy leagues on Sleeper, Philadelphia Eagles running back D’Andre Swift is going way too early for my liking. His fifth to sixth-round value on that platform seems way too high. Even with a later ADP on Yahoo and ESPN (96.1), there’s a major risk in drafting him this year.
Despite going to a better offense from the Detroit Lions to the Eagles, it shouldn’t necessarily help his fantasy value. In 2022, quarterback Jalen Hurts never targeted his running backs in the passing game. Between Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell, the three combined for just 61 targets (48 receptions) on the year. That's an average of 3.5 targets per game.
Swift earns his fantasy value by catching passes out of the backfield, and he might struggle to get that in Philadelphia. The former Georgia star has 156 catches over his first three NFL seasons, which has helped him average 14.7 PPR fantasy points since entering the league in 2020.
It appears that Swift will have a hard time finding enough targets in a crowded receiving offense led by wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. On top of that, he’s also never played a full season in his three-year career. Maybe things change for the Eagles’ offense, and Hurts will actually target his running backs in 2023. But in a crowded backfield and wide receiver room, Swift is too much of a risk.
On Sleeper, I prefer players like James Conner, Alexander Mattison, and Chris Godwin -- all of whom are going around the Eagles’ running back.
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