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Joe Idone's @TourPicks Exclusive Course Preview and Breakdown for the 2024 Valero Texas Open. Course preview concentrated analysis for The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio in San Antonio, TX for this week's PGA Tour event to prep for PGA DFS lineups and golf betting strategy.
Hello and welcome to my official course and tournament preview piece for the 2024 Valero Texas Open, which was first played in 1922 and is the longest-running professional golf tournament to be held in the same city for its entirity. The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio will be the host course this week and my goal is to provide a comprehensive and in-depth look at the specs of the golf course to help you best understand historical trends and stat profiles that have proven to be indicators of success at this tournament in the past. The golf course is the ever-changing variable week to week on the PGA Tour and it is pivotal to understand the specs in great detail while researching the tournament.
We have a solid amount of data and course analytics to properly make some assessments regarding advantageous player skill sets and course setup specifics. The Oaks Course has been the home of the Valero Texas Open since 2010. This Greg Norman design features narrow fairways and a par-72 layout with rather undulating greens that run very quick in an attempt to give players a decent week of preparation before heading to Augusta National for the Masters.
Here is the scoop on Memorial Park and what to expect for the 2024 Valero Texas Open.
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An Introduction to the Course
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is actually the 8th course to play host for the Valero Texas Open since this tournament began taking place in the 1920's. The course opened in 2010 under the lead design of Greg Norman and is available for public play if you are willing to pony-up the steep TPC greens fees. The Oaks Course sees over 40,000 rounds of golf annually. The TPC San Antonio facility also features the Canyons Course which was designed by Pete Dye and has hosted both Korn Ferry and Champions Tour events.
The property itself is rather tight for a layout that stretches more than 7,400 yards. While the rough is cut down and negligible, big misses can turn into a disaster as there are native areas filled with tight branches, rocks, etc that can quickly eject a player from competition. It reminds a bit of desert golf in terms of the unpredictable nature and frankly luck factor off the tee box for substantial misses.
The Oaks Course ranks inside the top-15 annually in terms of scoring difficulty and I firmly believe that tournament officials and the superintendents have a goal in mind of presenting a difficult test to prepare players the best they can for the Masters. That is a tall task in Texas, but they want this place running as fast as possible, particularly on the greens. There is very little in terms of water hazards on the course but Norman did a good job of protecting some of the greens with large bunkers that are steep in the face to bring an added challenge to Tour players.
The infamous 18th hole that leads uphill from tee to green showcases the clubhouse and the winding, rock protected creek that runs along the entire hole and has caused stress for players trying to close out a win on many occasions.
The countdown to @valerotxopen week is on - just 20 days left! The construction on Hole No. 18 is really coming together, getting us all pumped up! pic.twitter.com/2eOkLZQhU5
— TPC San Antonio (@TPCSanAntonio) March 12, 2024
Recent Winners:
2023: Corey Conners -15 : 25/1
2022: JJ Spaun -13 : 200/1
2021: Jordan Spieth -18 : 14/1
2019: Corey Conners -20 : 175/1
2018: Andrew Landry -17 : 200/1
The Scorecard - Valero Texas Open
Course Specs
The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio does a good job in my opinion of not overly rewarding any specific skill set. It caters to a well-rounded player which you can see historically when you run down the list of winners. Given the length, distance will always help but you can also get the job done by consistently pounding fairways. You are going to be left with a ton of middle iron shots that will need to properly struck to present birdie chances, but you can also gain substantially on the field by proficient play on and around the greens.
We are back to a course with your standard four par-5s on the scorecard and they range from 553-604 yards on the scorecard. The 14th hole is by far the shortest of the bunch and plays as the easiest hole on the course. One of the unique overall aspects of this golf course is how difficult the start is. Six of the opening nine holes played over par last year, and the par-4 1st and 4th holes are the two most difficult on the entire course. Then, you have the closing stretch which affords players the chance to make birdies in bunches coming down the finish. In round 4 at the 2023 edition of the Valero Texas Open, each of the final five holes on the scorecard played under par.
The greens average 6,400 sq. ft. in size and once again we have Bermuda grass with a POA Trivialis overseeed. This will make for our 4th consecutive week with this type of greens and the 9th time this year we have seen this strain. Players and stat models should be very familiar the surface at this point in the season. The fairways and rough both feature a blend of Perennial rye grass and fescue.
Statistical Considerations
I'll start with the caveat that recent winners have been statistically the opposite, but I am willing to play the distance and power angle this week. In my opinion, it affords players the ability to take on all the par-5s and also potentially drive the green on the 340-yard par-4 17th hole. The fairways on average are some of the most narrow on the PGA Tour, but there is virtually no penalty for a small miss. The missed fairway penalty from the rough ranked as the lowest on Tour in 2023. If I am a bomber, I am sending it this week off the tee box and deploying Driver as much as possible, especially if you can hit it relatively straight as well.
A more niche stat that I am considering this week in my stat models in sand save percentage. There are 64 bunkers on the course which were redone in 2021 and now have added depth and steep faces which I mentioned earlier in this piece. Last year they ranked as the third toughest on Tour in terms of getting up and down from the bunkers. They surround nearly every green on the course and you have to take many of them on if you want to attack pin locations and grant yourself birdie opportunities.
The majority of holes feature a slight dogleg left which will provide more room to those (right-handed players) who are comfortable playing a draw off the tee. Here is what Corey Conners said a few years ago that I found noteworthy, "This course is a little different style-wise, but for me, I like to hit the ball right to left off the tee. That's important at Augusta and I also think it fits really well here. Being comfortable seeing that shot shape shape I think here translates really well into Augusta."
As with last week in Texas, the wind has the tendency to pick up this time of year which is part of the reason the greens in regulation percentage is really down in certain years. Pay close attention to the weather report as the week progresses with an eye on possible wave advantages for betting and DFS.
Approach shot distribution from 2023 at the Oaks Course, via Data Golf:
Stat Radar Plot for the Oaks Course, via RickRunGood.com:
Best Player Course Fit Rankings for the Valero Texas Open:
- Taylor Montgomery
- Christian Bezuidenhout
- Ben Griffin
- Alex Noren
- Doug Ghim
- Brendon Todd
- Beau Hossler
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Taylor Pendrith
- Martin Laird
*Based on last 36 rounds of player data.
