X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Where Are The Stats? In Which Rounds to Target Hitter Stats for Fantasy Baseball

Jon Anderson takes a look at the 2023 fantasy baseball hitter projections and sees where certain categories are concentrated across the ADP.

If you're drafting a fantasy baseball team in a rotisserie-style league, how you attack the different categories is almost just as important as what players you draft. There are five standard categories:

  • Runs
  • Home Runs
  • RBI
  • Stolen Bases
  • Batting Average

You can put together a team that laps the field in home runs but still finish last in the league if you stink in the other four categories.

I'm here today to help you get a feel of where the hitting statistics are distributed. This is a big topic of conversation during draft season, and those who best understand it definitely get a little bit of an edge.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Methodology

For this post, I'm going to use an aggregation of different projection systems, and then group hitters together by round - assuming a 12-man league. What you will see below are a bunch of "average player projections by round," and then you'll have a round number 1-40 with a number with it for each category. The first round then would be the top 12 ADP. The second round would be ADP 13-24, and so on and so forth. Let's have at it!

 

Steals

We are starting with steals because this is typically the "most scarce" statistic of the big five. We see that it's somewhat front-loaded again in 2023, but what we do notice is that it's much more evenly distributed this year as compared to last season.

I did this same study last year, and I found that 27% of the projected steals in the top 30 rounds were in Rounds 1-3. This year, that number has dropped to 17%. That's a pretty big difference. Here are the top 10 steals projections and the round they go in most commonly:

Player SB Round
Ronald Acuna Jr. 35 1
Adalberto Mondesi 33 20
Cedric Mullins II 30 5
Jake McCarthy 30 10
Tommy Edman 28 7
Bobby Witt Jr. 28 1
Randy Arozarena 28 4
Trea Turner 28 1
Starling Marte 28 7
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 27 4

Projecting steals is tougher this year than others, I will admit that. There are new rules in play concerning pitcher pickoff attempts, pitch clocks, and bigger bases as well. I expect steals to come up 10-20% overall, and I don't think it will apply evenly to everybody. The guy that ran all the time last year will still run all the time, there's not a lot of room for growth there.

The players that never ran probably won't run this year either, so that leaves the middle of the player distribution benefiting the most. I can't say with confidence who is going to benefit, and I might have this all wrong - but I do think the smart approach this year is to draft a bunch of 5-15 steals guys rather than just a couple of 30+ guys. Of course, drafting steals in the first round is still a perfectly good thing to do, but I am a bit more comfortable with a Yordan Alvarez type in the first round this year.

Later-round steals to consider:

 

Home Runs

Home runs have been trending downward since 2019. Here are some numbers on that. I show each of the last three full seasons along with the league home run rate and the number of hitters that went over certain thresholds:

Year AB/HR 30 HR 25 HR 20 HR
2019 31.25 58 80 129
2021 27.24 43 70 102
2022 24.62 23 45 71

Home run rarity went to new heights last year, and that resulted in a lot of guys being concentrated right in the 15-20 range.

The average exit velocity of a home run in 2019 was 102.4 miles per hour. In 2021 and 2022, that average came up to 104.2. It is now tougher to hit a home run. That means the middle-round guys are less likely to hit them, and the homers will be more concentrated into the league's strongest players.

We are looking for hitters with high Brl/PA rates. Here are the top 20 hitters from a year ago in that category along with their 2023 ADP and projected PAs for 2023:


Of the top 10 guys here, only three are making it out of the third round. Those names are Stanton (health concerns), Mountcastle (Camden Yards), and Joc Pederson (platoon concerns). It's not easy to find trustworthy home run hitters after the first 50 picks.

This might be a little bit of reason to lean closer towards Rodriguez, Alvarez, and Judge over guys like Trea Turner and Jose Ramirez who probably top out around 25 homers. You may even consider going double power bats to start your draft (Rodriguez and Alonso, for example). It just might be easier to catch up in steals later in the draft than catch up in long balls. What a twist!

Later-round homer guys to consider:

 

Batting Average

I have come to believe that it's best to more or less not draft for batting average. The statistic is quite noisy year to year. I checked the correlations for the five roto categories from 2021 to 2022 - using RATES rather than totals so injuries aren't factored in. Here are those correlations:

Category Correlation
Runs .51
Homers .67
RBI .53
Steals .71
AVG .49

The somewhat reliable statistics here are homers and steals. We can project runs and RBI a bit better than this suggests because those two categories are so dependent on team and lineup context, which we can have a decent feel for ahead of the season. Batting average, however, is completely on the individual player - so the low correlation there means a bit more.

That is not to say that we have no power to know what a player's batting average will be. The key inputs to batting average are strikeout rate and quality of contact, and those two things are much more sticky from year-to-year, so we can take those stats seriously. We can feel quite confident that Luiz Arraez will hit for a strong batting average and that Joey Gallo will not, for example. But there's a lot more noise in the middle of the player distribution than we often think.

My general strategy in roto drafts is to avoid the high strikeout hitter (27%+). This angles me toward a competitive batting average since I'm not taking the Eugenio Suarezs and Giancarlo Stantons of the world who will bring my batting average down just because they're giving away a third of their PAs to the strikeout. Of course, there is a time and a place for those types of players (namely when you started with a bunch of steals and typically high batting average guys and need to catch up in power in a hurry), but my ideal draft would not contain those types.

If I can get a lineup full of players with strong strikeout rates and at least decent power, I won't need to think twice about the batting average category, I will just let the cards fall where they may and embrace the randomness. That doesn't always work out though, so here are some cheap batters we can feel good about in the batting average category:

The more expensive guys on that list happen to be guys that will either steal 20+ bags or hit 15+ homers. The cheaper ones pretty much only give you batting average, so I would recommend not putting yourself in the situation where you have to draft a Brantley or Ramirez to get some base hits into your lineup.

 

Runs & RBI

These two things are somewhat tough to predict as well, as we saw above with the low correlation rate. Most of the runs and RBI projections have to do with projected plate appearances, projected lineup spot, and what team the player is on.

I don't have a ton else to say about these two categories. They fall pretty steadily as the draft goes on. This is mostly because you're losing playing time and power as you get deeper and deeper into a draft, and those two things are super important to racking up runs and RBI.

For runs, you are looking for players hitting at the top (#1 or #2) of the lineup. Here are the average percent boosts that each lineup spot saw in run-scoring last year:

Spot Boost
1 +13%
2 +6%
3 -4%
4 -7%
5 -6%
6 -6%
7 -5%
8 +2%
9 +6%

These numbers are per-total base. Once you factor in the loss of PAs you encounter from hitting #8 or #9 in the lineup, that boost goes away entirely. But you would expect significantly more runs scored per total base from a #9 hitter as compared to a cleanup hitter, for example.

Okay, here are the best run projections after pick #200:

Shifting to RBIs:

More of the same. Here are those per-total base lineup spot boosts for the RBI category:

Spot Boost
1 -18%
2 -5%
3 +7%
4 +13%
5 +9%
6 -2%
7 -2%
8 0%
9 -2%

You can see the toll leading off a game takes on your RBI total. If you're leading off, you need to hit a homer to drive in a run in at least 20% of your plate appearances (leading off the game for your team). That's the only lineup spot where that's true. It also hurts that you follow the worst hitters on your team, the #8 and #9 players, so even when you're not leading off the game, it's much less likely that you'll have men on base.

The big boosts come at the #3 and #4 spot - with the #4 spot really taking the cake here. We don't have a great idea about what Opening Day lineups will look like right now, but you can use the above data to upgrade or downgrade hitters once those lineups start becoming more clear.

Let's finish this beast out with the highest RBI projections after pick 200:

That's it for this piece! I hope you enjoyed it, and I hope it helps your drafting. Let me know if you have any questions on Twitter @JonPGH.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
James Wiseman

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Kyle Lowry

Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF