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New England Patriots running backs have been tricky to evaluate in fantasy football throughout most of the Bill Belichick era, but Rhamondre Stevenson delivered a high-end season in 2022, despite being in a mediocre offense. The second-year player out of Oklahoma entered the season sharing work with Damien Harris, but as Harris got banged up and Stevenson flashed his receiving skillset, he took over a workhorse role.
The fantasy community as a whole is being cautious with Stevenson since New England has traditionally opted to rotate running backs and replace them early and often, but Stevenson could be a dynasty fantasy football trade target after a breakout campaign.
In this edition of dynasty risers and fallers, we'll dive into Stevenson's 2022 season, his current dynasty and trade value, and his 2023 fantasy outlook. Let's get to it!
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Stevenson got out to a slow start while sharing time with Damien Harris, accumulating just 78 yards on 20 total touches through two weeks. He finished as the RB43 and RB55, but he would flash upside in Week 3.
In the Week 3 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens, Stevenson rushed 12 times for 73 yards (6.1 YPC) and a touchdown, adding four receptions on five targets for 28 yards. This marked his first RB1 finish of the season in PPR leagues (RB8).
During his next nine games, he finished no lower than the RB22 and posted five finishes inside the top 10 running backs. Harris missed a few games during this stretch, but when he did play -- he was the clear No. 2 back behind Stevenson.
Stevenson rushed for 161 yards in Week 5 against Detroit, totaled 101 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6 against Cleveland, caught eight passes and scored a touchdown in Week 7 against Chicago, caught seven passes and totaled 143 yards in Week 8 against New York (Jets), and racked up 70 yards and a touchdown against Indianapolis in Week 9.
He would hover around the RB12 spot over the next few weeks, but he delivered another spectacular stat line in Week 15 against the Raiders -- rushing for 172 yards and a touchdown.
Ultimately, he wasn't a high-volume rusher, receiver, or touchdown-scorer in every game, but he found a way to score fantasy points in bunches through one of those three avenues. His all-purpose skillset was on full display and he became a highly-valuable RB2/RB3 or flex piece given his RB36 preseason fantasy draft ADP.
Overall, Stevenson posted 1,040 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns on 210 attempts (5.0 YPC), adding 69 receptions on 88 targets for 421 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Despite playing in the 16th-highest scoring offense, Stevenson placed 7th among running backs in total PPR fantasy points -- totaling seven RB1 finishes and another five RB2 finishes.
Per Playerprofiler.com, the 25-year-old finished as a top-seven running back in target share, routes run, route participation, juke rate, evaded tackles, breakaway runs, yards created, and yards created per touch.
Rhamondre Stevenson Dynasty Value/Market
While player valuations are going to vary widely from league to league, KeepTradeCut.com is a helpful resource for getting an idea of what a player's value might be. These crowdsourced rankings have Stevenson as the dynasty RB14 and the 47th most valuable player overall (single-QB leagues). At this time last year (April 13), Stevenson was valued as the RB37. Needless to say, he's seen a massive leap from year one to year two.
Rhamondre Stevenson Dynasty Value
That said, the community is apprehensive about pushing Stevenson closer to the top-ten backs in the range of Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, and Tony Pollard thanks to the scary history of Patriots ball carriers. While the masses would likely agree the team has much more significant needs than running back, the Patriots' draft board and decisions are always unpredictable.
If New England falls in love with and selects Texas' Bijan Robinson, Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs, or UCLA's Zach Charbonnet -- Stevenson could be in trouble and will see a massive value dump. However, if New England doesn't add a running back until the third day of the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft, his value will climb even further.
He's a tricky player to figure out what to do with in dynasty formats but ultimately, it could go either way. You could trade for him just to see him replaced in a few weeks, or you could buy low on the uncertainty and look like a genius after the draft. It's worth noting he'd still have plenty of PPR value if New England opts to add a back with a lackluster receiving skillset, but his overall ceiling would take a hit.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
In early FFPC draft ADP, Stevenson is coming off the board at the RB12 spot (29.8 overall). The results of the 2023 NFL Draft will affect his ADP no matter what, but high-stakes drafters are likely taking the discount on his upside with the possibility of him being replaced hanging in the balance.
Ultimately, his skillset makes him offense-proof and whether Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe is under center for the majority of the 2023 campaign, he should see plenty of receiving work. Neither signal-caller has rushing and scrambling upside, and the weapons are still limited in New England. Those things point toward continued receiver work.
As mentioned above, we can consider Stevenson doomed if New England used an early pick on an all-purpose or receiving running back. His receiver profile is directly tied to his dynasty value and 2023 fantasy outlook, so that's not something he can afford to lose. Stevenson totaled just the 18th-most rushing attempts in 2022 but trailed only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey in running back targets. No wonder he finished at RB7.
His worst case is sitting behind a full-fledged workhorse running back, but there's also a chance the Patriots' offense improves, Stevenson sees more touchdown upside, and he finishes as a top-five running back in 2023.
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