2021 Open Championship: PGA DFS Preview

Hi RotoBallers! I'm Andy Lack and I'm very excited to be with you as a new member of the RB PGA team! In our ongoing attempt to expand and improve our PGA coverage, I will be dropping a 'Tournament Preview' every Monday morning.

I hope this preview will give you a head start on your Open Championship research and I'd also like to encourage you to check out my Pick The Pup podcast to hear more of my thoughts on Royal St. George's. If you aren't already utilizing RotoBaller's amazing weekly PGA content, fix that right now by joining us this week and throughout the rest of the PGA Tour season.

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RotoBaller Weekly PGA Article Schedule

Monday: You can find out all you need to know about Royal St. George's with Josh Bennett's Course Breakdown (Premium) and learn which golfers have thrived at Royal St. George's in the past with Joe Nicely's Horse For The Course.

Tuesday: We kick your DFS research into high gear with articles from Spencer Aguiar! Spencer will highlight his favorite DraftKings Plays of the week - an article that also includes his popular PGA DFS Rankings Wizard Model - and offer great tips with his Head-To-Head Betting Preview, while Joe Nicely drops some salary savers in his DraftKings Value Plays (Premium) article. We also have you FanDuel fans covered with free PGA DFS picks for every tournament.

Wednesday: Things start getting intense on Wednesday and we've got you covered! You can check out RotoBaller Staff One And Done selections and get inside the mind of our team with our PGA DFS Expert Roundtable (Premium). We also have two of the most popular articles in the PGA DFS industry with Spencer Aguiar's Vegas Report (Premium) and Joe Nicely's DraftKings Core Four (Premium). You can also check out Josh Bennett's DFS Cheat Sheet (Premium) for a quick cram session!

Tournament Overview

2021 Open Championship

Recent Winners
2019 - Shane Lowry
2018 - Francesco Molinari
2017 - Jordan Spieth
2016 - Henrik Stenson
2015 - Zach Johnson

Event Details
Purse: $11.5 million ($2.07 million to the winner)
FedEx Cup Points: 600 (Winner)
Field: 156 Players

For the first time since 2011, the Open Championship will return to Royal St. George's in Sandwich, England. Something about this year's Open feels extra special, as golf fans were deprived of the Open last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Absence certainly makes the heart grow fonder, and Royal St. George's is a perfect venue for the Open to make its triumphant return.

As is the case with all major championships, all of the big names will be in attendance. However, there are also several notables that will not be teeing it up this week for various reasons. Both Hideki Matsuyama and Bubba Watson were forced to WD due to COVID-19 complications, while Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim have elected to skip the Open in order to focus on the upcoming Olympics. Young American star, Matthew Wolff, has been very open about his personal issues this year and has also decided to withdraw from the event.

Last month at the U.S. Open, many of the sport's biggest names, such as Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau all found themselves in contention late on Sunday, with Rahm ultimately prevailing. There is certainly reason to believe that golf fans will be blessed with a similarly loaded leaderboard in Sandwich, as many of the world's best continue to ride impeccable form.

Jon Rahm checks in as the deserving favorite, and his breakthrough major win at Torrey Pines was backed up by another impressive showing last week at the Scottish Open. Brooks Koepka always figures to be in the mix at a major championship, and he is coming off top-five finishes at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. While Dustin Johnson's form has been lacking, he did finish runner-up at the 2011 Open Championship at Royal St. George's, and he boasts an impressive resume on wind-swept, coastal courses. Rory McIlroy should never be underestimated at the Open either, as he has recorded five top-fives and a win in eleven appearances at an event that is extremely meaningful to him.

Speaking of Open success, Jordan Spieth has never finished worse than 44th in seven Open Champion appearances, and he claimed victory the last time the Open came to England, at Royal Birkdale in 2017. Might this be the week that Xander Schauffele breaks though? The California native is riding a streak of an incredible form, and he has displayed his Open Championship medal already with a runner-up finish at Carnoustie in 2018. While Justin Thomas has not experienced a great deal of success in this event, the game seems to be rounding into form after an impressive performance at the Scottish Open. Bryson DeChambeau enters this week with the most questions, as the big-hitting, eight-time PGA Tour winner has never finished better than 51st in three Open Championship appearances.

On and on the list could go, as Louis Oosthuizen looks to break through after back-to-back runner-up finishes at the last two majors, and young guns such as Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland should never be discounted either. A compelling case could be made for every single one of these challengers, and fantasy managers will be forced to take a stand. Making the correct decision at the top will be crucial, as eight of the last ten years, the Open Championship winner has been ranked inside the top 40 of the Official World Golf Ranking. Stacked fields and major championships are often synonymous with the term, "soft pricing," as fantasy managers will enjoy constructing lineups chalk full of excellent players. Let's get into the course breakdown, some key statistics, and three players that are worthy of further attention.

Course Breakdown

Royal St. Georges - Sandwich, England

Royal St. George's was originally designed by Dr. Laidlaw Purves in 1887. The course is a standard Par 70 with four par threes and two par fives, tipping out to 7,189 yards on the scorecard. The fairways and greens feature a mix of fescue and bent-grass. Royal St. George's is known as one of the more difficult tracks on the Open rota. Greg Norman, who won at -13 in 1993, is the only player to ever win here with a total lower than five under par. In the two most recent championships at Royal St. George's, Ben Curtis won at one under par in 2003, and Darren Clarke famously claimed victory at the tender age of forty-two in 2011.

Part of what makes Royal St. George's such a stern test is that it sits right on the coastline, so it is extremely open to the elements. The Purves design is on an extremely flat piece of land with little to no protection from the wind. Royal St. George's is famous for its tall sand dunes, treacherously deep bunkers, and firm and fast putting surfaces. Uneven lies are commonplace, and fantastic looking shots can end in disaster. Royal St. George's epitomizes links golf in absolutely purest form!

In examining why there have been some anomalous winners here, a Lee Westwood quote sums it up adequately. "More than anywhere on the Open Championship rota, I think there are a couple of fairways out there where you can get bad breaks. I suppose you can get good breaks as well, but I think at some point during the week you're going to need patience. It's going to be tested. It makes you think and constantly adapt to the situation." Evidently, seasoned, course management specialists and plodders, preferably with links experience, will possess an advantage this week. Speaking of experience, from 2011 onwards, all Open Championship winners had finished in the top-ten of an Open at least once prior to winning. Shane Lowry finished ninth at Royal Liverpool in 2014 prior to his victory at Royal Portrush. Francesco Molinari had a top-ten and two top-20s prior to his breakthrough win at Carnoustie. Jordan Spieth finished fourth at St. Andrews prior to his 2017 victory at Royal Birkdale. Henrik Stenson had three top-tens priors to his win at Royal Troon, and the list goes on. Open Championship experience matters, and fantasy managers would be foolish to overlook it as a factor this week.

Outside of adaptability and veteran savvy, let's discuss the actual golf skills that are required to conquer Royal St. George's. Here's a quote from Luke Donald that really stood out, "There's very few tournaments we play where the golf is anything even similar to this. You're having to manipulate the ball a lot more, really control it. It's not just standing up there and swinging away; there's a lot more thought to it and a lot more control of the golf ball that's needed." That immediately draws to mind creative players who like to work the ball both ways and control their ball flight. Royal St. George's is a shot-makers course, and it is far from a surprise that Phil Mickelson finished runner-up here in 2011.

Here's another nugget from Rory McIlroy, "I don't think you'll be able to run many shots in because it can catch the wrong side of the slope, and it can go 20, 30 yards away from the green. I think this golf course is going to be all about the second shot and making sure that you get the ball in the right position in the green because the greens have so much slope that you're going to have 25, 30 footers all day." Let's add iron players to the mix as well!

Okay, last one. This is from Martin Kaymer, "I think the tee shots, they're not so difficult, because the fairways are pretty wide. You just need to avoid the bunkers. That's always a penalty if you're in the bunker. You need to chip it out and go from there. But I think the key shots this week are going to be those six to ten footers for par." While there was no strokes gained data back in 2011, there are a few numbers we can gather that seem to back this up. On average, the top three finishers at Royal St. George's in 2011 ranked 40th in driving accuracy, yet fourth in greens in regulation percentage. Darren Clarke ranked 56th in driving accuracy and second in greens in regulation percentage. There is certainly some leniency off the tee as long as total disaster can be mitigated. Like any great course, the emphasis falls more-so on the second shot.

In a vacuum, I am looking primarily at elite iron players, those with Open Championship and links experience, plodders, scramblers, and creative shot-makers. Lag putting and putting from five-to-tend feet will also play a large role in my decision making process. Solid bunker players, who are not necessarily anything special off the tee, but can certainly keep the ball in play is also a must. Let's hone in on a few of the key metrics that I believe will determine our winner this week.

Key Statistics 

Outside of the obvious four major statistical categories (strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green, and strokes gained putting), here are a few ancillary statistics that should prove pivotal, as well as the top-5 players in the field in these statistics over their last 24 rounds.

1. Average Strokes Gained Per Round In Moderate-To-Very Windy Conditions 
   1. Collin Morikawa
   2. Jon Rahm
   3. Abraham Ancer
   4. Jordan Spieth
   5. Patrick Reed
2. Bogey Avoidance 
   1. Keegan Bradley
   2. Patrick Cantlay
   3. Cameron Tringale
   4. Brian Harman
   5. Branden Grace
3. Sand Saves  
   1. Matt Kuchar
   2. Cameron Smith
   3. Kevin Na
   4. Brian Harman
   5. Webb Simpson
4. Putting: 5-10 Feet
   1. Ryan Palmer
   2. Louis Oosthuizen
   3. Jason Kokrak
   4. Jordan Spieth
   5. Webb Simpson
5. Three-Putt Avoidance 
   1. Alex Noren
   2. Tony Finau
   3. Billy Horschel
   4. Brian Harman
   5. Lucas Herbert

While those five statistics are a great place to start, I am also looking at Open Championship experience, good drives gained, scrambling, and par four scoring (400-450 yards).

Players To Target

High-Price Tier

Jordan Spieth (DraftKings: $9,700)

Jordan Spieth is under-priced this week, and his ownership could prove to be astronomical. With that being said, I still find it extremely difficult to escape the three-time major winner, especially considering the fact that we are flush with opportunities to differentiate at the bottom of the DFS slate. Let's start with his resume. Spieth has played the Open Championship seven times, and he has never finished worse than 44th. He won the Open at Royal Birkdale in 2017, finished fourth at St. Andrews in 2015, and ninth at Carnoustie in 2018. Beginning in February at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, something clicked for the Dallas native. Spieth has recorded ten top-20s, with six top-fives, and a win at the Valero Texas Open in 13 starts this year. Even at courses that are hardly suitable for his game such as Torrey Pines, Spieth continues to rack up consistent finishes.

Normally known for his putting, the reason for his renaissance actually has more to do with his ball-striking than anything else. The 12-time PGA Tour winner has now gained strokes on approach in nine straight starts, and he is coming off a week where he gained 4.5 at the U.S. Open. Normally, Spieth's driver is a weakness, yet the University of Texas product has now gained off the tee in eight consecutive starts as well. Spieth has no business gaining off the tee at courses like Kiawah Island and Torrey Pines, yet he is doing so anyway. The short game and putting remains immaculate too. Over his last 36 rounds, Spieth ranks 17th in strokes gained around the green, 14th in strokes gained putting, 11th in putting from five to ten feet, and 14th in scrambling. The former Open champion is one of only three players in this field, along with Xander Schauffele and Webb Simpson, that are better than field average in every single metric I am weighing this week. He is also the only player in this entire field that ranks in the top-20 over his last 36 rounds in putting from five to ten feet, scrambling, strokes gained approach, bogey avoidance, and strokes gained in windy conditions. Any way you slice it, Spieth checks every box. I could not script a better course for him than Royal St. George's. I bow to ownership often, but Spieth is a must-play. Take your chances at the bottom.

Mid-Price Tier

Paul Casey (DraftKings: $8,600)

My assumption is that the general public will be flush with excitement to roster Louis Oosthuizen at another major after a string of recent near misses at glory. I happen to feel that way about Paul Casey. While Louis has been making his hay with the flat-stick, Casey has been recording major top-ten major finishes on account of his ball-striking. The Englishman has finished in the top-seven in all of the last three majors not held at Augusta, despite losing an average of 0.2 strokes putting.

Casey is normally a very popular play, yet my sense is that fantasy managers will be more gun-shy this week on account of his shoddy Open Championship record and a skill-set that is "better" suited for American golf. I am not the least bit concerned. Firstly, early weather reports from Sandwich predict conditions to be far more benign than previous iterations, and Casey has an excellent track record at shorter, club-down, approach courses such as TPC River Highlands, TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, and Harbour Town. While I am not suggesting that any of those courses are comparable courses to Royal St. George's, I do believe that a similar skillset will be required this week. Over his last 36 rounds, the 15-time European Tour winner ranks second in strokes gained approach, 13th in strokes gained around the green, and fourth in good drives gained. Casey keeps the ball in play off the tee, is one of the best iron players in the world, and has an impressive short game to boast as well.

My primary school of thought with this selection is that if the early weather and wind reports are true, Royal St. George's will favor elite iron players more-so than any other skill-set. Casey has gained over 4.5 strokes on approach in four consecutive starts. He continues to knock on the door at major championships, and I liken this opportunity as his best chance yet.

Value-Price Tier

Ian Poulter (DraftKings: $7,200)

The weather at this week's Open is incredibly unpredictable, and since Royal St. George's sits so close to the coast, it could change in an instant. For that reason, selecting golfers that cover a wide array of outcomes is an admirable strategy. I already mentioned that I like Paul Casey's chances if the conditions are benign. Give me Ian Poulter if it's blustery.

Still searching for the elusive first major championship, the forty-five year old recognizes this shot as good as any. While his results at the Open Championship have been a bit of a mixed bag, he has certainly shown his ability to succeed on true links style tests, with a second-place finish at Royal Birkdale in 2008 and a third-place finish at Muirfield in 2013.

The Englishman has quietly put together an impressive season, with ten made cuts in 13 starts this season, including top-30 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Masters, the Valspar, the PGA Championship, the Charles Schwab Invitational, and the Palmetto Championship. Now Poulter travels back across the pond to a track even more suited for his grind-it-out style of play. Over his last 36 rounds, The 12-time European Tour winner ranks 14th in Sand Saves, 17th in Putting from five to ten feet, 20th in three-putt avoidance, and 31st in scrambling. Poulter is an excellent bunker player, a short game artist, and possesses as steady a hand as any over an eight-foot putt.

In his Open Championship tune-up at the Scottish Open, Poulter gained on approach, was neutral off the tee, gained around the green, and gained with the flat-stick. That is certainly the formula this week. Poulter is known more so for his short game and putting, so when the irons are cooperating as well, he is most definitely a threat. Desperate for Ryder Cup attention, Poulter will bring his best this week.

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