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MLB baseball betting picks and wagering advice for MLB futures wagers. Tim Heaney targets the best sleepers for World Series champs, MVPs, Cy Youngs, and Rookies of the Year who can offer big returns.
Major League Baseball’s revised 60-game season starts Thursday, so here are some last-minute 2020 MLB sleeper bets you can make on DraftKings Sportsbook, if your state permits.
(I targeted picks with odds of +2000 or longer, as categories such as “[Team] will make playoffs” don’t allow for many drastically profitable options.)
World Series | Make Playoffs | AL MVP | NL MVP
AL Cy Young | NL Cy Young | AL Rookie | NL Rookie | Player Props
2020 World Series Champions
Cleveland Indians +2500
Chicago White Sox +2500
San Diego Padres +4500
Cleveland boasts a talented top 3 of its rotation in Shane Bieber, Mike Clevinger, and Carlos Carrasco. Its bullpen could be elite, too, with James Karinchak complementing closer Brad Hand. If Franmil Reyes, Domingo Santana, Oscar Mercado, and Cesar Hernandez can elevate their game just enough to complement Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Carlos Santana, this lineup could become lethal.
The White Sox enjoy a similar combination of veteran presence (Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, Edwin Encarnacion, Yasmani Grandal) with up-and-comers (Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, possibly speedy prospect Nick Madrigal). No. 1 starter Lucas Giolito gets sturdy (if not exciting) support from new arrival Dallas Keuchel.
Just one more Jimenez drop, if you'll allow me:
In general, I like talented teams from the AL and NL Central because of the light matchups at the bottom of their schedules, though I’m willing to give a West team a try.
The Padres are one of the NL teams most thankful for the universal designated hitter. They can install Austin Hedges and his elite backstop defense behind the plate while using blossoming bat Francisco Mejia at DH. Or, they can simply use Josh Naylor and Wil Myers there.
Trent Grisham could enjoy his own breakthrough, giving San Diego more speed atop a lineup already headlined by 2019 breakout Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and newly-acquired Tommy Pham.
Chris Paddack’s workload concerns hardly exist in this environment, and if they get anything from Dinelson Lamet, Garrett Richards, and Joey Lucchesi, that rotation will supplement arguably one of the Majors’ best bullpens; Kirby Yates, Drew Pomeranz, and Emilio Pagan form a suffocating setup trio. Even if only one of those three can stay afloat, this is the perfect opportunity for a team to get creative with filling out its innings, and San Diego is built to accomplish that.
Make 2020 Playoffs
Philadelphia Phillies +215
Los Angeles Angels +225
The allure of each of these bets depends on a major player’s decision to play this year.
Angels outfielder Mike Trout and his wife are waiting on the birth of their child in August, and Trout may miss time at the utmost protection of his family. The Phillies may get a partial season out of newly signed starting pitcher Zack Wheeler, who’s weighing the decision due to the pandemic.
Still, each of these clubs could surprise in a short season. The Angels brought in Anthony Rendon, who hit above .300 for the third straight year and delivered a career-best 126 RBI in 2019, and welcome back game-changing pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani.
Rotation members Andrew Heaney, Dylan Bundy, and Griffin Canning offer the right kind of volatility that could succeed in a small-window schedule, and the bullpen (Hansel Robles, Ty Buttrey, and Keynan Middleton) is similarly underrated. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons’ defense is always appreciated.
Meanwhile, the NL East is tough, but a lineup led by Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto won’t just fade into the distance. Philadelphia also was a top-five defense by many metrics in 2019, and Didi Gregorius’ arrival strengthens that -- along with middle-of-the-order thump. New manager Joe Girardi brings tested postseason experience, too.
The biggest question is probably the rotation. Behind Aaron Nola -- and especially if Wheeler opts to sit out -- it gets rough. But there’s always the sturdy-to-great bullpen … and the continued possibility of that elusive Vince Velasquez breakout and the possible recall of lauded pitching prospect Spencer Howard (more on him later).
2020 AL MVP Award
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians (+2500)
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (+3000)
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees (+3300)
Ramirez rescued his late-2018/early-2019 collapse with a .327/.365/.739 run after the All-Star break before breaking his hamate bone. The streaky bat could easily light a match early on and find his '17-'18 form (.294/.380/.567 while averaging 34 homers, 94 RBI, 25.5 stolen bases per season).
In this shortened season, the two-way advantage could play in Ohtani’s favor if he excels at both hitting and pitching.
Given his uncomfortable combination of physical skills and health concerns, Stanton is the ultimate risk-reward pick; his swing in recent years hasn’t caught up to the launch-angle trend. Still, when he connects, he blisters the baseball, as proven by his third-place finish in barrels per plate appearance in 2017 (11.0 percent, per Statcast).
When active, he’ll mostly bat cleanup in New York’s stacked lineup.
2020 NL MVP Award
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres (+2500)
Nick Castellanos, Cincinnati Reds (+6600)
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves (+6600)
Machado will have some combo of Tatis Jr., Pham, and Grisham hitting in front of him, which could set him up to lead the league in RBIs.
Castellanos has averaged 25 homers, 88 RBI, and a .287/.337/.505 slash line over the past three seasons, and he lands in a middle-of-the-order spot in a dream of a home hitter’s park.
Albies, still just 23, boasts five-category production with elite defense; hitting first or second for the Braves has its benefits, and the Braves’ schedule is packed with hitter-friendly environments when the AL East ballparks are factored in.
2020 AL Cy Young Award
Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins (+2000)
Lance McCullers, Houston Astros (+4000)
Dylan Bundy, Los Angeles Angels (+15000)
Berrios has a lot of above-average-to-awesome pieces of his skill set that could collide into brilliance any given season. The 26-year-old could at least walk away from 2020 with a lot of wins backed by his homer-friendly supporting offensive cast; a favorable schedule against Central foes like the Tigers, Royals, and Pirates; and trustworthy bullpen.
Zack Greinke (+3000) also has a somewhat profitable listing, but McCullers could be the true surprise. Concerns about how deep he’ll go into games may not play as strongly in this unique season -- especially helpful considering this’ll be his first regular season action since 2018 Tommy John surgery. His elite curveball alone is a pitch worth an investment, and despite their controversy, the Astros remain an excellent organization for pitcher success.
This post-Tommy John version of McCullers could be more diverse and dangerous, too:
Wanna get nuts? Come on! Let’s get nuts.
Bundy arrives on an Angels team that at least has competent talent around him, with a bullpen that could hold on to his wins. You know those “one skill away” pitchers? The ones who need to make one major correction to break out in a big way? If Bundy can find a way to keep the ball in the yard more frequently and trust his excellent defense (career 1.67 HR/9), he could make a major leap.
2020 NL Cy Young Award
Chris Paddack, San Diego Padres (+3300)
Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks (+5000)
Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers (+6000)
Paddack’s past workload concerns won’t hinder him this season, and with the Padres’ bullpen and the West divisions’ favorable opponents, conditions could be ripe for a continued breakout.
If San Diego keeps Paddack paired with Hedges, who’s an elite framer, Paddack could revisit their sparkling 2.55 ERA and 113:20 K:BB in 18 games as a battery. Even if San Diego wants to keep him fresh, this is the stalwart bullpen with which you can confidently expect most of his pending wins to come through.
Ray has well-documented issues with walks, but the K artist’s fix to his windup could pay off:
The talented Urias, who turns 24 in a few weeks, has locked in a rotation spot and twirled a dazzling 3.26 ERA in 30 1/3 innings as a starter last year.
2020 AL Rookie of the Year
Nick Solak, Texas Rangers (+2000)
Nate Pearson, Toronto Blue Jays (+2200)
Evan White, Seattle Mariners (+4000)
Solak's hype swelled when Texas announced Willie Calhoun (hip) would miss time, but Calhoun appears ready for Opening Day. I would wait to see if Solak's odds balloon a bit more, but I still like this listing; he still has many ways to fall into at-bats (Rougned Odor is prone to slumps, after all.)
Solak built on the power he showed in the Pacific Coast League after being traded from the Rays, eventually making his way to the Majors and posting a 126 wRC+ and 11.1 percent walk rate in 33 games last year for Texas. His well-rounded plate approach could be elevated by a full season for a Rangers club with a likely hitter-friendly Globe Life Field, which may improve gap power from its predecessor park.
Pearson’s triple-digit velocity and baiting slider should make an appearance in the Majors at some point this year; perhaps that likelihood increases if Toronto hangs around in contention.
White has one of the best opportunities for playing time of any rookie and is coming off an 18-homer sample at Double-A Arkansas last year, during which he showed more opposite-field pop. T-Mobile Park favors pitchers, but White could coast to the award simply by compiling stats through a regular role.
(Of course, if his Seattle compatriot, Jarred Kelenic, were on the board, I’d have chosen him over any of these names, especially since his long path may keep his odds highly enticing for profit. Keep an eye out on his possible inclusion in the near future. And if you’re feeling cheekier, Astros pitcher Forrest Whitley is a heck of a dart throw at +5000.)
2020 NL Rookie of the Year
Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals (+1600)
Sam Hilliard, Colorado Rockies (+5000)
Spencer Howard, Philadelphia Phillies (+8000)
Carlson’s line lends to the theory that he’s not going to break Summer Camp with the big club, but the impact prospect could easily make his way up if the talented, but erratic, duo of Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader (and the “just there” Dexter Fowler) lag. The Cardinals’ offense could use the potential spark of Carlson, who has the bat skills to get hot in this short season.
Hilliard’s poor spring could open things up for Raimel Tapia, and he may need to turn around quickly to regain the starting spot many thought he’d have. He’s worth a small donation to see if he can tap back into his top-end speed and blossoming power (35 homers in the PCL last year, which is great even with the padding those environments offer).
Howard is at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but could leap into the Majors after two weeks, which would save the organization a year on his service time and team control. The back end of this staff has enough uncertainty for him to immediately claim a spot.
(Keep an eye on whether you can find Edwin Rios action. The Dodgers’ bopper could step up in Gavin Lux’s absence; his demotion makes that +280 a bit unfortunate.)
2020 Player Futures/Props
- Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs: Most Strikeouts 2020 (+2500) -- $10 bet pays $260
- Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers: Most Hits 2020 (+2500) -- $10 bet pays $260
- Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins: Most Stolen Bases 2020 (+2800) -- $10 bet pays $290
- Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees: Most RBI 2020 (+3000) -- $10 bet pays $310
- Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs: Most Home Runs 2020 (+5000) -- $10 bet pays $510
