Kyle Bishop analyzes three value performances in the outfield (OF) in 2016 and offers early thoughts on their 2017 outlooks.

Our review of the 2016 fantasy baseball season continues with a look at some of the best values in the outfield.

Value Outfielders in 2016

Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics

Davis was the 54^th outfielder off the board in 2016 drafts by FantasyPros’ ADP. He significantly outperformed that modest position, walloping 42 homers, scoring 85 runs, and driving in 102 – all career bests. This production was even more impressive when you consider that Oakland Coliseum is one of the worst parks in the league for right-handed power and the lineup around him was mostly terrible.

Davis’ batted ball metrics were quite consistent with his career averages:

Source: Fangraphs.com

The increased counting stats mainly resulted from consistently getting at-bats in the heart of the lineup. Davis has had his share of nagging injuries in his brief career, but assuming he can stay healthy enough to log another 600 plate appearances, you know what you’re getting. He’ll hit somewhere around .250 with 35+ homers and solid R and RBI totals. Even with the league-wide increase in home runs, that’s plenty valuable.

Ian Desmond, Texas Rangers

Desmond underperformed in 2015, forcing him to take a pillow contract with the Rangers last winter. Despite an atrocious April that had many wondering if he’d already entered a steep decline phase, that gamble couldn’t have worked out better for both parties. Desmond hit .285/.335/.446 with 22 homers, 107 runs, 86 RBI, and 21 stolen bases, all while adjusting to his new position in center field. He’s one of the few marquee players in a weak free agent class.

While one should always be cautious to avoid putting too much in stock in split stats, it’s tough to ignore how badly Desmond faded down the stretch:

Desmond’s career batting average and BABIP entering the season were .264 and .322, respectively. He clearly benefited from some good fortune in the first half. To be fair, though his peripherals were worse after the break, they weren’t so terrible that we can’t credibly say he got a little unlucky. The truth of Desmond’s production likely lies somewhere in between the above extremes.

Where he ultimately signs will obviously impact his run production totals, and whether or not he regains shortstop eligibility. Regardless, Desmond has posted a 20/20 season in four of the past five years, and seems a solid bet to do so again in 2017.

Brad Miller, Tampa Bay Rays

If you had to choose a poster child for the Great Power Surge of 2016, you’d be hard-pressed to find one better than Miller. He hit 30 home runs, more than he had in his entire MLB career to date. Miller told reporters that he made a conscious decision to sell out for harder contact, and increased his leg kick. These tweaks were successful, as he did increase his Hard% and exit velocity while also hitting a few more balls in the air.

The question is whether these changes were drastic enough to justify a doubling of his HR/FB%. Looking at his overall profile should instill a healthy dose of skepticism. The increase in hard contact came with an identical bump in soft contact, and though his exit velocity rose, by that metric he was good rather than great. Per HitTracker, 11 of Miller’s 30 homers were of the “Just Enough” variety. Given his increased strikeout rate and decline in stolen base attempts, Miller pretty much has to hit homers to be a fantasy asset.

Even with his positional flexibility (he’s eligible at both first base and shortstop), there are enough questions about the sustainability of Miller’s 2016 performance to ignore him in drafts next year.