RADIO
This article continues our team outlook series where we will break down each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each roster from this off-season and project what the team will do in the upcoming year. Today we take a look at the Miami Dolphins.
New coach, new attitude - this is the year things turn around. Dolfans have heard that line before with a litany of coaches still trying to take the franchise out of Dan Marino's shadow. Miami hasn't made the playoffs since 2008 and even that season was mostly a result of the Wildcat offense simply taking opponents by surprise. To be fair, new coach Adam Gase has drawn universal praise from former players and opposing coaches alike. Hey, if Peyton Manning vouches for you, then you can do no wrong! Talent-wise, the pieces are all seemingly in place, so a boost in motivation and an effective coaching staff may be all it takes to make the Dolphins a playoff team. Seeing is believing though, and this will be a prove-it year for Ryan Tannehill, whose "franchise QB" status has thus far been a result of his salary more than his production.
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Quarterback
Tannehill has compiled some fairly good statistics over the years, but it has not resulted in winning seasons. Fantasy quarterbacks don't get credit for wins (this isn't baseball after all), but if the wins don't increase then Tannehill could find himself on thin ice with an already frustrated fan base calling for a change. As the offensive coordinator in Chicago, Adam Gase was credited with helping Jay Cutler cut his INT total from 18 to 11 in 2015. He was also the architect of the Denver Broncos offense when Peyton Manning threw for 5,477 YDS in 2013. Tannehill wound up as QB17 in fantasy points last season, after finishing as QB7 the year before under the uninspiring Joe Philbin. He has two legitimate stud receivers and one of the top pass-catching backs in the league as an outlet. Tannehill certainly can't be trusted as a starter for fantasy leagues, but provides a higher ceiling than most of the backups being taken around his ADP (13.11). 4,000 yards is a possibility, as he reached the mark two years ago. He still must prove that he can improve on a 24/12 TD/INT ratio before entering the QB1 discussion.
Running Backs
The Dolphins' approach to this position all off-season has been fascinating (or agonizing if you are a fan). First, they low-balled Lamar Miller even though it was obvious he would get a bigger deal elsewhere. Whether Miller will prove to be worth $24 million is yet to be seen, but the Dolphins were willing to gamble that he wasn't. Next came a failed attempt to sign C.J. Anderson when the Broncos surprised everyone, including Anderson, by declaring that he was worth $18 million despite not starting half of last season. The draft resulted in a third-round selection of the other Alabama RB, Kenyan Drake, who will be used on kick return and third downs, but was clearly not selected to be a feature back. Jay Ajayi was climbing up draft boards up until July 18th, when Arian Foster found a new home.
Foster is two years removed from a season of 1,500+ combined yards and 13 TD. Achilles injuries for 30 year-old running backs tend to bring skepticism in the free agent market, however, which makes Foster very much a boom-or-bust prospect. Will we see the Arian Foster of old or just an old Arian Foster? It all comes down to health, which seemingly isn't a factor in training camp so far. He has been running with the first-team offense and taking advantage of the absence of Jay Ajayi due to a bone bruise. Foster could make or break many fantasy drafts, while Ajayi remains a huge question mark as well. He is untested and unproven, yet is still being drafted in round eight on average, even after the signing of Foster. If healthy, they may each effectively neutralize the other's fantasy value by sharing time, but should injury or ineffectiveness strike one, the other may jump up to RB1 status.
Wide Receivers
Jarvis Landry is the surest thing on the Fins roster. A PPR monster with 110 receptions, good for fourth in the league, Landry is a low-end WR1 whose value is slightly lower in standard leagues. Landry won't score many TD (4) and now has a legitimate complementary receiver who should be a much better red zone threat. DeVante Parker appeared destined for a lost rookie season until lame duck interim head coach Dan Campbell let the reins loose beginning in week 10. In just six games, Parker racked up 445 YDS and scored three times, posting a 19.0 Y/R in four starts. Parker looked every part the receiver the Dolphins were hoping for when they made him a first-round pick and he is one of the top breakout candidates at the receiver position.
Health is the issue with Parker as he is already experiencing hamstring problems in training camp. Kenny Stills holds down the third receiver spot, but is simply a field-stretcher who will break the occasional big play while also seeing multiple games with goose eggs in the REC column. Leonte Carroo is a rookie the Dolphins coveted enough to trade up for in the third round. Reportedly, they had him listed as the number two receiver on their draft list, ahead of Corey Coleman, Sterling Shepard, Tyler Boyd and Will Fuller among others. He will see few targets early on and is only draft-worthy in rookie leagues and MFL10s or best-ball formats as a flyer in the late rounds.
Tight Ends
If there is one position that Gase will hope to get more from, it is tight end. Jordan Cameron turned into a free agent flop, contributing just 35 catches for 386 yards. Backup Dion Sims has good pass-catching ability, but lacks consistency and turned in just 127 yards himself. The Dolphins won't be employing two-TE sets a la rival New England, so Cameron will be the only Dolphin worth looking at for fantasy owners. Learning another new offense may slow Cameron's production early in the year, so he shouldn't be counted on as a starter. Many a fantasy owner were burned by overpaying for his 80-917 production in 2014 with Cleveland. Gary Barnridge's surprise breakout last season may have proven that it was more a matter of scheme than talent. Cameron has put up one productive season out of five in the NFL. Unless Gase has designs on making the TE a huge part of the offense, Cameron can be left as a backup or completely undrafted.
Kicker
Andrew Franks went 13-for-16 in FGA last season. The accuracy isn't concerning so much as the lack of attempts, where the Dolphins finished dead last in 2015. Regardless, Franks will have to earn his job by competing with undrafted rookie Marshall Koehn in training camp. Whoever emerges victorious should have a nice place on the waiver wire after the regular season starts, as this position isn't worth drafting for fantasy owners. Gase may inject some life into the offense, but there isn't any reason to bank on it.
Defense/Special Teams
The most disappointing aspect of the team was clearly the defense. Arguably the biggest free agent signing of 2015 was Ndamukong Suh. His presence alongside pass-rushing specialist Cameron Wake and a greatly improved Olivier Vernon was supposed to disrupt opposing offenses and pump up the turnovers. Suh and Wake both got off to slow starts, but sprang to life once Philbin was shown the door. Unfortunately, Wake suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in week 7, just two weeks after earning Defensive Player of the Week honors with four sacks against Tennessee. Vernon left via free agency, so the Dolphins rolled the dice by replacing him with former #1 overall pick Mario Williams.
On paper, this looks to be the most talented defensive line in the NFL. Of course, health and motivation have a big say in the actual performance of that group. The linebacker corps will depend on a healthy Kiko Alonso to reclaim the form from his rookie season. The secondary currently consists of Reshad Jones, one of the top strong safeties in the game, and a bunch of question marks at CB. Cornerback Byron Maxwell is yet another veteran in need of a career reboot, but will enter 2016 as the top CB in Miami. The other starting job at corner is anybody's guess after rookie Xavien Howard was placed on the PUP list, with no other proven options on the roster.
Overall Fantasy Outlook
The only sure thing on this roster is Landry, who is about as safe as you can get. He will continue to rack up targets, as he serves not only as the primary slot receiver, but Tannehill's safety net. His work ethic is undeniable and he can finish the year as a top-ten WR yet again. DeVante Parker has the talent to breakthrough, but health will continue to be a question for him. He is best left as a WR3 and fantasy owners shouldn't overpay for him on draft day.
The running back situation is not completely settled, but the increasingly obvious resolution is that Arian Foster carries the load. He was not signed to be a backup, nor has Jay Ajayi ever truly earned the starting job. Foster carries considerable risk, but if he can be backed up by a reliable third RB in the middle rounds, he is worth the risk. Ajayi is looking more like a mere handcuff at this point, but one that Foster owners should definitely consider.
Finally, embattled QB Ryan Tannehill still has a high ceiling despite the flurry of haters out there (full disclosure - I'm one of them). He was a top-ten fantasy QB just two years ago and Gase could pull the right strings to help him reach his potential. I'll believe it when I see it. Tannehill is no more than a fantasy backup entering the season, but he should still be prioritized over players like Teddy Bridgewater or Joe Flacco, who have no shot at hitting 4K in passing yardage. Miami remains very much an enigmatic team, but one that should be fascinating to watch in the 2016 season.
