What a time to be a Cleveland sports fan. The Cavaliers won an NBA title, the Indians have a 4.5 game division lead (as I write this), and Browns football is on the horizon. Yes, I know the Browns haven’t been exciting in a long time. Yes, I know Robert Griffin III will be the quarterback this season. However, Josh Gordon will be back this year (hopefully) to help the offense, and they have an exciting young running back by the name of Duke Johnson.

You may not have heard much about him as a runner, but he played a major role in the passing offense last season. Duke Johnson will out-perform his ADP in both standard and PPR scoring leagues, and here’s why.

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A Deeper Dive into Duke Johnson

First off, a little background on Johnson as a player. The Browns third round selection in the 2015 NFL draft played three years with the Miami Hurricanes, and was an absolute beast. In his final year at Miami, he rushed for 1,652 yards and had 421 yards receiving (2,073 yards from scrimmage), scoring 13 total touchdowns. During his three years in college, he was mainly used as a running back, with his lowest yards per carry number at 6.3 (6.8 in his freshman and junior years). Johnson left Miami as the school’s all-time leading rusher, edging out great NFL players like Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis, and Frank Gore. Johnson is a rare athlete that has the potential to change an entire offense. It has yet to translate into the NFL just yet, but one thing that has already shown is how excellent of a receiver Johnson can be out of the backfield.

Last season, Duke Johnson was fifth among all RBs in the league in receiving yards, fourth in receptions, tied for tenth in yards per reception, and was even tied for third in first downs gained. He gained 534 yards on 61 catches (8.8 yards per reception) with two scores. He also had an impressive 82.4% catch rate, which ranked seventh amongst running backs. Johnson was able to catch passes not only on screens, but also over the middle, downfield, and along the sidelines. He made the plays looks about as easy as they can; the talent with this young running back is all there in the receiving game. You can’t teach sure hands, and he has them.

Cleveland.com has reported that Johnson will even be split out as a wide receiver this season, giving Johnson an even bigger boost in fantasy value. He has proven to be an excellent pass-blocker, so he could realistically be in as an every-down back on this team. Johnson out-snapped last years starter Isaiah Crowell 568-to-483 last season, and Johnson's college resume suggests he is capable of taking on more carries. As it stands now, he will be competing with Crowell for the Browns' starting running back job. Cleveland’s offense in desperate need of playmakers, so Johnson's ability to play all over the field will allow for plenty touches no matter where he is listed on the depth chart.

2016 Fantasy Football Outlook

Hue Jackson, who was the offensive coordinator for the Bengals the past two seasons, is now the Browns head coach. If you recall, he had plenty of success using both Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill out of the backfield during that time. Per 4for4.com, in the last four seasons he was an offensive coordinator (2010, ’11 with the Oakland Raiders, ‘14, ’15 with the Cincinnati Bengals), Jackson led his offense to a top-seven finish in rushing attempts and touchdowns. In each of the last ten seasons, Jackson has averaged a higher percentage of run plays than all but three active play-callers in the NFL. He will have a tougher time with this Browns team, but Jackson likely won’t change his philosophy even if they lost one of their key members on the offensive line, Center Alex Mack, to free agency.

Crowell’s yards per attempt went from 4.1 to 3.8 (on 185 attempts) last season, which ranked 13^th worst among qualified backs. Johnson only averaged 3.6 (7^th worst) but this was only on 104 attempts. He still ranked better than the likes of Jeremy Langford, Melvin Gordon, and DeMarco Murray. He received less running volume, but did more of his damage through the air. Whereas Crowell caught only 19 balls for 182 yards. Isn’t a question who the more talented back is of the two. Johnson is the smaller back, but his size is comparable to a RB like Gio Bernard or Frank Gore, who have both been successful in the league.

It is completely possible that if RGIII beats out Josh McCown and wins the Browns starting quarterback spot, defenders will have to commit at least one player to him to respect his running ability like what was done in Washington. With Johnson's smaller stature, this would help him manage to find lanes and open up holes when defenders stack the box. Alfred Morris barely ever dealt with a loaded box when he and RGIII were in Washington for this reason. If RGIII can help open up some running lanes with his threat to run, I believe Johnson can be an effective three-down back in this league.

Per fantasyfootballcalculator, Duke Johnson is being taken as the #30 RB in standard leagues, and the #21 RB in PPR leagues. I believe he will outperform both of these rankings, and finish as a solid flex play in standard leagues, and a very solid RB2 in PPR leagues. Draft him and watch him pile up the receptions this season, with more opportunities to run.

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