RADIO
A Forgotten Asset?
Starting pitching is deeper than ever. It’s become a cliché. Fantasy writers frequently point to the depth of pitching as a reason to target position players early in the draft.
It isn't just a myth. The raw data firmly supports the statement - there is a virtually unprecedented number of quality pitchers in baseball today. According to Baseball-Reference, the league averaged a 3.74 ERA in 2014. It was the lowest recorded mark in baseball since 1989, when Bret Saberhagen, Orel Hershiser, Bert Blyleven, Greg Maddux and Taylor Swift (just kidding) were shutting down opposing lineups.
In the current run-scoring environment, fantasy owners are rightfully placing an even greater emphasis on drafting impact hitters early. A pitching staff can be assembled in the late rounds. Among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2014, 58 posted an ERA under 3.50. An astounding 31 of those pitchers posted sub-3.00 ERA’s.
If starting pitching is deeper than it has been in over two decades, there should be an abundance of under-the-radar breakout candidates lurking in the late rounds, right? Enter Shane Greene. The 26-year-old right combines strikeout and an above average ground ball rate. Most importantly, he's expected to start for the Detroit Tigers.
Fantasy owners are hesitant to “invest” or “buy-in” when an unheralded pitcher like Greene materializes out of thin air. Greene was never a highly touted prospect and the Yankees selected him in the 15th round of the 2009 draft. If you are willing to overlook the lack of a prospect pedigree, the numbers speak for themselves. Greene has the potential to produce a huge return on a late-round investment for fantasy owners this season.
In 15 appearances (14 starts) with the Yankees last season, Greene went 5-4 with a 3.78 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 81 strikeouts in 78.2 innings. Acquired by the Tigers in early December, Greene is projected to start the upcoming season in the rotation. The move from hitter friendly Yankee Stadium to the spacious confines of Comerica Park should pay immediate dividends.
The key to Greene’s fantasy value will be his ability to maintain his major league strikeout rate. It spiked from a 7.73 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) in Triple-A, to 9.27 K/9 in the majors. He mixes in five pitches while leaning on a sinker and slider. A heavy dose of low-90’s sinkers, a pitch Greene threw 37% of the time last season, enabled him to burn worms (50.2% groundball rate).
According to PITCHf/x data, Greene’s sinker recorded a higher average velocity (93.9 mph) than any other starting pitcher in baseball last season. Greene’s deadly sinker/slider combination is the key to racking up both strikeouts and grounders at a high rate.
It is worth noting that Greene struggled with a pair of issues last season - walks (3.32 BB/9) and left-handed hitters. He probably needs to develop or improve one of his existing breaking pitches to curb his issues against southpaws, and his Triple-A numbers suggest he wasn’t very good before getting called up last season. A .330 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in New York certainly didn’t do his rate stats any favors.
In Summary
It’s simply too hard to ignore what Greene did with the Yankees last season. His approach and repertoire contain elements that show tremendous promise. You shouldn't expect Greene to pull a Corey Kluber and post elite numbers. However, if you buy into the arsenal and positive trends in his profile, he will be a useful option at the back end of a fantasy rotation.
