After a couple of weeks on the positive side of the ledger, regression was inevitable. Jayson Werth didn’t offer much in the way of category juice over the past week, though he did continue to collect hits and lift his batting average back toward respectability.

Jon Gray turned in a solid effort against the Marlins before laying an egg against the Yankees last night. He was pulled early with what’s being called a “heavy arm.” On the sell side, Steven Souza Jr. landed on the disabled list, while Cole Hamels was excellent in both of his outings.

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Week 12 Buys

Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros

There seems to be a lingering sense of unease among Correa owners after his (relative) early struggles. If this is true in your league, stop reading immediately and put together some offers. Correa has hit three homers in his last five games and posted a .977 OPS this month. Sure, the strikeouts are up and the power down from his sensational rookie season, but we’re still talking about an absolute stud here. And even with shortstop a more robust position in fantasy than it has been in quite some time, a 21 year old producing at this level is pretty incredible. The window to buy somewhat low may already have closed in your league, but to be frank, it never should’ve opened in the first place.

Zach Davies, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

Davies has reeled off four straight quality starts to open the month of June, winning three of them. He’s struck nearly a batter per inning and posted a 0.96 ERA and 0.64 WHIP during that time. Obviously he’s benefited from some luck over that time, but his FIP for the month checks in at a healthy 2.76, and his 21.8 K-BB% ranks ahead of such luminaries as Corey Kluber and David Price. Davies has also done a terrific job of minimizing hard contact this month, ranking fifth among all qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate.

Week 12 Sells

Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Kansas City Royals

The 27-year-old rookie has made the most of his shot after a collision cost the Royals both Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon. Merrifield is hitting .323/.339/.468 with a pair of homers, four stolen bases, and 33 R+RBI in 29 games. There’s not much reason to expect this level of production to persist, though. While Merrifield has to this point displayed what we recognize as a high BABIP starter kit (speed, lots of line drives and hard grounders, etc.), it isn’t consistent with what he’s shown in the minor leagues. Other than a half-season at Triple-A, Merrifield’s BABIP marks were more or less normal, so his current .388 mark is bound for some correction. He doesn’t have great plate discipline or much power, so his value figures to be limited moving forward.

Jason Hammel, SP, Chicago Cubs

Hammel currently boasts a shiny 2.55 ERA, but a closer look at his performance reveals plenty of reasons for concern. He’s striking out fewer batters and walking more compared to his recent performances, riding the combo of an unsustainably high strand rate and a well below average .249 BABIP to success. The Cubs as a team are running a historically low BABIP, so maybe that mark won’t rise as much as we might otherwise expect. But how much are you prepared to bet on that? It’s also worth noting that in each of the last two seasons, Hammel has faded badly after the All-Star Break. And while we shouldn’t expect the Cubs to deal for a starter at the deadline, Hammel would certainly be the odd man out if they elected to do so.

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