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Matt's wide receiver (WR) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 15 of 2024. His WR lineups advice for Week 15 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Here's your weekly Mike Evans update, and it could be better. On Sunday, Evans hauled four of his five targets for 69 yards. With those 69 yards, Evans pushes his 2024 total to 590 yards, leaving him 410 receiving yards shy of his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season to begin his career. If Evans is to continue the streak, he will need to average 102.5 yards per game to close the season.
It's great news for fantasy managers as they enter the first round of their fantasy playoffs. This week, we can get Zay Flowers, Courtland Sutton, Nico Collins, Michael Pittman Jr., and Terry McLaurin back into our lineups.
Just because some elite options are set to return this week doesn't necessarily mean you can trust them -- or can you? Even George Pickens is a potential hole in your fantasy lineups this week as he is dealing with a Grade 2 hamstring sprain. Let's get to it. Here are the RotoBaller Week 15 starts and sits at the wide receiver position.
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Week 15 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Jerry Jeudy - WR, Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
If you have yet to figure it out by now, Jerry Jeudy is as close to a must-start as you will find in fantasy these days. Heading into Week 15, the Browns pass-catcher has climbed into the top 12 among fantasy receivers thanks to 181.4 fantasy points, many of which have come with the arrival of Jameis Winston.
Since Week 8, Jeudy has averaged 21 fantasy points per contest, a number that only the Bengals duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins can claim to have bettered over those seven weeks. Jeudy can also stake claim to seven consecutive games in which he has produced over 12.5 fantasy points.
In the world of what could have been, if you average out Jeudy's production since the insertion of Winston, that would project out to 108 receptions, 1,921 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns.
Of Jeudy's 944 receiving yards, which is third most in the NFL, 72% have come in the six games in which Winston has been under center. In a matchup against the Denver Broncos, Jeudy was moved around to avoid Patrick Surtain II, playing a third of his snaps from the slot.
Expect that to be the case once again against a Chiefs team that is allowing 41.48 fantasy points over the last four weeks, which happens to be the fourth most over that time frame.
#Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy is now third in the NFL in receiving yards on the season.
1. Justin Jefferson (1,170)
2. Ja'Marr Chase (1,142)
3. Jerry Jeudy (944)72% of Jeudy's season total has come in just the last 6 games with Jameis Winston. It's reasonable to think… pic.twitter.com/cAuLxIvQOo
— The Dawgs - A Cleveland Browns Podcast (@thedawgspodcast) December 9, 2024
Jakobi Meyers - WR, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Atlanta Falcons
If fantasy managers cast aside Jeudy, then people just forget that Jakobi Meyers existed heading into the 2024 season. Quietly, Meyers has gone on to average 14.2 fantasy points per game this season, has tallied 13 or more fantasy points in six of the last seven contests, and currently resides as the WR23 heading into the Monday Night Football conclusion of Week 14.
If there was a week to hesitate on starting Meyers, it could have been this week. Gardner Minshew II was lost for the season a couple of weeks back. Luckily, Aidan O'Connell's MRI on Monday revealed a bone bruise, keeping Meyers' fantasy fate out of the hands of Desmond Ridder, at least for now.
Heading into last week, Meyers was averaging 15 fantasy points per game in games in which Davante Adams wasn't around. He had also seen a target share greater than 32% in three of the previous four contests. That volume continued in Week 14, as Meyers finished with 13.7 fantasy points along with a 27.0% target share and 29.6% first-read target share.
Jakobi Meyers has been below a 25% target share just once since Week 3, which was Davante Adams' last game for the Raiders.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 9, 2024
Against Atlanta, those kinds of opportunities lend themselves to fantasy production. Over the last four weeks, Atlanta has been allowing 42.10 fantasy points per game, the third most. On the season, it has allowed 2,084 receiving yards on 178 receptions, not to mention a league-high 20 touchdowns surrendered to opposing wide receivers.
Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints
Next up, how about Terry McLaurin? Over the last four weeks, only the Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers, and Texans have allowed more receiving yards to the position than the 650 conceded by the Saints. Over that stretch, the Saints have also allowed four receiving touchdowns and a league-high 44.53 fantasy points against.
New Orleans has struggled to defend receivers all season, and it's been more than just the last four weeks. It has been allowing 35.84 fantasy points against, the sixth most throughout the season.
Coming out of the bye, McLaurin's 896 receiving yards rank inside the top seven. McLaurin's nine touchdown receptions rank second, trailing only Chase, all while averaging 14.7 yards per reception.
Since Week 4, McLaurin has averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game. During those 10 weeks, he averaged 0.23 targets per route run while seeing a target share of 20.5% and accounting for 37.3% of the Commanders' air yards. McLaurin has also averaged 2.68 yards per route run over that period, which puts him ahead of Chase, Justin Jefferson, and George Pickens, as he has made the most of his 26.1% first-read target share.
I don't know if the Saints have an answer for McLaurin this week. The only way I see McLaurin falling short of fantasy expectations is if the Commanders get ahead too early and close out the game running the ball.
Week 15 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
George Pickens - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles
George Pickens missed last week with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, and his Week 15 status remains in the air. As good as Pickens is, he is fighting an uphill battle this week. Not only does he have to contend with a soft tissue injury, but awaiting him on the other sideline is Quinyon Mitchell, who has had some success eliminating some of the best fantasy receivers this season.
"The Steelers were planning on George Pickens playing yesterday..
They met before the game and they took the long term view..
Hamstring injuries are usually multiple week injuries and we'll see if he can make it back this week or not" ~ @AdamSchefter #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/aiNqweH8RQ
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) December 9, 2024
If Pickens were able to return to the lineup this week, the risk of reaggregation of that hamstring is likely too significant for fantasy managers. At best, he serves as a decoy out there and ties up Mitchell so the Steelers could look to gain an advantage elsewhere. Then again, where is that?
Philadelphia has been the top defense facing opposing receivers over the last four weeks. It has allowed just 388 receiving yards on 42 receptions, earning a league-best 23.20 fantasy points against. During the season, it is allowing 29.23 fantasy points against, the fifth fewest, while allowing the second-fewest receiving yards. No matter how you look at it, it's best to avoid Pickens this week.
Jayden Reed - WR, Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
From one good defense against the receiver position in recent weeks to another. Over the last four weeks, Seattle has allowed just 31 receptions for 325 yards and a pair of touchdowns to the position. For those keeping track at home, that's 25.40 fantasy points per game, the third fewest.
We cannot put our fate in Jayden Reed's hands, either. Despite checking in as the WR18 on the season, Reed laid a goose egg last week and has gone on to record fewer than 10 fantasy points in five of his previous seven contests.
Reed always has a fantasy upside, as was evident in Week 1 when he recorded 33.1 fantasy points. That game also accounted for 19.7% of Reed's production this season. Remove that one game, and Reed drops from WR18 to WR30.
DK Metcalf - WR, Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers
As much as I love DK Metcalf, two things are taking shape this week. One, the matchup is brutal. Green Bay has allowed 26.90 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks and 30.28, ninth best, throughout the season. In 13 games, the Packers have allowed just 1,720 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.
Second, take all that potential production and give two-thirds of that to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Currently, Smith-Njigba sits inside the top six with 911 receiving yards this season, 99 more than Metcalf.
The real disparity comes in fantasy production, as JSN's additional 21 receptions and two touchdowns are the difference between WR5 and WR29 so far. Over the last four weeks, JSN has averaged 18.3 fantasy points compared to Metcalf's 10.9.
JSN is a Top __ WR in the NFL. ✍️ https://t.co/y74p8QtN2P pic.twitter.com/byI6mP6RIn
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 9, 2024
In a less-than-favorable matchup likely to divide the fantasy production, I'd rather not risk my fantasy playoffs relying on one big play from Metcalf. It's possible, but the odds are stacked against it.
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