RADIO
Welcome to the 2017 edition of the Recently Promoted Prospects! Here I discuss some recently promoted prospects and what to make of their production for fantasy owners.
We are continuing to go over prospects who debuted this season with their big-league club (with the exception of one outfielder from Pittsburgh). There will be likely one or two more weeks where we are going over such prospects, but anytime there is a major promotion or interesting role changing prospect, they will certainly be included.
So without any further ado, let’s get right into talking about the recently promoted prospects for week three!
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Hitters:
Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL) - 70% owned
Skeptics of Swanson at the beginning of the season are probably feeling pretty smug right now. Swanson is slashing just .131/.159/.197 with a 25.4 percent strikeout rate. It’s been pretty ugly if you just look at the numbers. And while owners should not expect him to be a stud shortstop this early in his career, he should be expected to perform a little better than he has so far.
The strikeout rates and poor walk rates are probably the product of just inexperience at the pro level, which will take time for him to improve on, but some other poor numbers are more the product of bad luck so far. He has a .159 BABIP despite an average exit velocity of 89.41 mph and average batted ball distance of 202.45 feet. Swanson clearly generates a lot of hard contact, as is further evidenced by his mere 13.3 soft hit percentage and his solid 62.2 percent medium hit rates.
The 23-year-old shortstop has also spread the ball all over the field with a 37.8 percent pull rate, 28.9 percent to center and 33.3 percent to the opposite field. Don’t expect him to become Derek Jeter overnight, but he should at least finish the season as the .275+ hitter with 10 homers and 10 steals that most foresaw out of him.
Mitch Haniger (OF, SEA) - 63% owned
If I told you at the beginning of the season that Mitch Haniger would be leading all rookies in WAR roughly 20 games into the season, you’d probably think I was crazy. Or just really into out-of-nowhere breakout stats at Triple-A. But it does appear those numbers he put up in the minors last season were for real as he has emerged as potent threat in the middle of Seattle’s lineup.
So far this season, Haniger is second among rookies in home runs with four, leading the pack in RBIs, tied for the lead in stolen bases and leads in runs scored as well. He is also batting over .300 and is walking about 15.2 percent of the time. The 22.8 percent strikeout rate and .364 BABIP indicate a little bit of regression may be coming soon for Haniger, but he should still be a solid source of power and speed with a respectable batting average. Believe the hype, Haniger could be the dark horse competitor with Andrew Benintendi for AL Rookie of the Year.
Hunter Renfroe (OF, SD) - 16% owned
If you are a believer in minor-league numbers, then the only thing that should surprise you about Renfroe is that he has a low batting average. And even then, that should not be too surprising. Last season, Renfroe struck out nearly 23.9 percent of the time at Triple-A and walked about 2.8 percent of the time. This season, he is striking out 23.1 percent of the time. He also has yet to draw a walk through 65 plate appearances.
Renfroe has terrible patience at the plate, but what he lacks in discipline he makes up for in power. If you are owning Renfroe, chances are you do not care about batting average or else you would’ve gone for someone else. He is a purebred slugger who should be able to hit 20-25 home runs this season at the expense of a probable .250 or lower batting average. Renfroe is talented enough with the bat that he may be able to get that average up in the long haul, but owners this season should be expecting a hit less than a quarter of the time.
Josh Bell (1B/OF, PIT) - 10% owned
Bell’s early season struggles have been a bit … shocking. All signs pointed to a possible breakout season and he has yet to really put those stunning numbers up just yet. But don’t jump ship just yet. There is reason to believe in him.
For starters, though his average is a measly .205, his BABIP is sitting quite low at .222. Someone with his plate discipline and power potential should have something at least around .290-.300, so that should help his average out a bit. Despite his average being low, all his other numbers have been solid. He is walking 8.3 percent of the time with just a 14.6 percent strikeout rate, and his batted ball stats show promise. He has posted an average exit velocity of 89.60 mph, 2.02 mph higher than league average. It may take some time for Bell to dig himself out of this slow start, but owners should not abandon hope just yet. There is still time for him to turn things around.
Jose Osuna (OF, PIT) - 1% owned
Osuna was promoted as the immediate call up following the suspension of Starling Marte. Outside of this season, Osuna has never struck out above 17.6 percent at any level of his career and has always proven at least capable of making consistent contact. He does not have a ton of pop or speed, and thus should not be expected to be much more than a super deep league waiver add.
Pitchers:
Kyle Freeland (SP, COL) - 6% owned
We start the pitchers off with one of the more uninspiring picks on this list, Kyle Freeland. The Rockies’ southpaw has enjoyed a somewhat successful minor-league career thanks in large part to his pinpoint command and an above-average fastball/slider combination. This season, the majors have not been kind to Freeland who currently sports a 4.91 ERA and 4.55 FIP.
He is not going to be the next Jon Gray in Colorado, but his command and historic ability to keep the home run relatively in check makes him a potential solid deep dynasty league add. But Coors Field will likely continue to diminish his value in 2017, leaving him as a super deep league add at best.
Jordan Montgomery (SP, NYY) - 8% owned
Montgomery is a slight notch below Freeland in just about every category on the board, and yet he is a far more valuable pitcher to possibly own. Despite having no pitches that could be considered even a 60-grade pitch, Montgomery has managed to regularly post strikeout rates above 20 percent in the minors with ERAs consistently around or below the 3.00 mark.
Montgomery also has the added bonus of not calling Coors Field home. He will pitch in Yankee Stadium, which is by no means a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but it is an improvement over Coors. Montgomery’s average stuff could mean he mellows out and provides owners with a 4.00 ERA and solid strikeout numbers, but he has proven he knows how to use his modest repertoire and could possibly be a 3.50 ERA guy. He is no future ace, but he could serve as a solid innings-eater in AL-only and 14+ team leagues.
Adalberto Mejia (SP/RP, MIN) - 1% owned
Basically a shorter version of Montgomery, Mejia is another southpaw with only average stuff that has somehow translated to years of success in the minors. Mejia’s strikeout rates have almost always been around the 18-20 percent range with modest walk rates typically below 8 percent. His track record of a mid-3.00 ERA may be tempting to add, but don’t be fooled.
Despite Mejia’s years of success, it has largely been smoke and mirrors. He is not an overwhelming pitcher and does not bring the same level of deception that Montgomery has. Scouts foresee him as eventually filling an innings-eating role in the majors, but no one seems him as amounting to much more than a No. 4 or 5 starter at best with a possible bullpen position coming in the future. He does not figure to have much of an impact in 2017 leagues and is really only worth consideration in the very deepest of leagues.
Koda Glover (RP, WAS) - 7% owned
I’m not going to lie, I was a little bit to see his ownership rate so low. I would have figured all the early closer issues in Washington would have him stashed by just about everyone. Glover to this point in the season has been filthy, posting a minuscule FIP of 1.81 despite low strikeout totals that should be expected to go up as the season carries on.
Glover is not going to be the first choice for closer by Dusty Baker as evidenced by the recent announcement that Shawn Kelley will be taking over the role for the Nationals. But Kelley has been awful this season with a 5.14 ERA and 6.91 FIP. Glover has the stuff to be a lockdown closer and will likely take over the role at some point this season, and maintain for a couple years.
Cody Reed (SP/RP, CIN) - 4% owned
Reed’s been up in the majors the whole season, but he will make his first start out of the rotation on Saturday against the Chicago Cubs. Ouch. That’s a brutal matchup. Reed has looked better this season than last season, but Chicago is a rough matchup for any pitcher.
Reed has the stuff to succeed in the majors, and this might be the season he eventually turns it on. His velocity is way up so far (though he has been pitching entirely out of the bullpen so Saturday’s start will be the best indicator of velocity) and he has improved his swinging strike percentage by nearly 8 percent. It will be interesting to see how he does this Saturday. Needless to say, I wouldn’t start him against Chicago, but he might have some value this season once he makes the full-time transition into the starting rotation.
