Is Montgomery for Real? Week 14 Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Analysis

Happy Fourth of July weekend everybody. Hope you stuffed yourself with hot dogs, hamburgers, and light beer. More importantly, I hope you took the time to remember what the day is for and reflect on how great we have it here.

If you've been following along with this series all season, you know the drill. If not, this article is to help you uncover starting pitcher options that may have been overlooked in your league or dropped after a poor start. As always I include options for shallow and deeper leagues. I also add my list of pitchers discussed previously in at the end of the article with ownership levels to boot. Make sure to check them out, and grab any that are still out there.

Don’t forget to check out our Starting Pitcher Matchups & Streaming Tool for expert guidance during the week too, including what pitchers to start/sit for seasonal and DFS leagues. Let’s get to it.

Editor’s Note: to read about even more waiver wire options for starting pitchers, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily.

 

Starting Pitchers Waiver Wire - Shallow Leagues

Mike Montgomery (SEA, SP)

OWNED IN: 49% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in 10+ team leagues

Might as well start with the headliner. Montgomery has made waves with his back-to-back shutouts of KC and SD, good enough to rank #4 among SP in the past two weeks (Scherzer, Walker, Grienke, Montgomery). In 44.1 innings he has a 1.62 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a 29/12 K/BB ratio.

He was a highly-regarded prospect back with the Royals (drafted 36th overall in 2008), but safe to say no one saw this coming. Montgomery doesn't have dominating stuff; he uses five pitches including a sinker (31%), fourseam (26%), change (21%), curve (13%), and cutter (9%). Hitters were befuddled by his arsenal in June, mustering a .178 AVG and .213 BABIP. So can it last?

All the signs are pointing towards regression, and I fall in line with that train of thought.  His 83.7% LOB rate is well above anything he put up the past four years in the minors and his BABIP in the minors hovered around .300. The projections are particularly rough on him, anticipating an ERA closer in the 4.30+ range. Hitters have made good contact and as stated before his stuff doesn't blow away hitters.

The plus sides for Montgomery include a pitcher-friendly park and an above average defense behind him. It'd be easy to say add Montgomery and sell high, but who's buying? For now I'd grab Montgomery and ride the train while the coal's burning, including his start today at Oakland. But emotionally be ready to look elsewhere when he cools off.

 

Brett Anderson (LAD, SP)

OWNED IN: 24% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVER: Add in 10+ team leagues

Brett Anderson wants your attention. I've discussed Anderson in this section before but considering his ownership level is so small I feel required to reiterate my stance. Anderson has been a steady presence in the Dodger rotation, racking up a quality start in eight of his past nine starts including his strong outing at Chase Field on Wednesday. In that span he's allowed more than two runs only twice and hasn't allowed more than three walks in any of those outings.

One of the main concerns with Anderson has always been health, and it's a reasonable complaint; Anderson hasn't started 30 games since 2009.  He doesn't strike out a ton of batters either (6.47 K/9) but he does goes deep into outings and has a lineup behind him which will give him a chance to pick up a win every time out.  I wouldn't advise trading for Anderson because I'm not convinced his injury woes are behind him. That said if he's sitting on your FA list and you have the likes of Alfredo Simon, Mike Leake, or Bartolo Colon on your team, I'd make the move.

 

Starting Pitchers Waiver Wire - Deeper Leagues

Kendall Graveman (OAK, SP)

OWNED IN: 19% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues

Kendall Graveman was part of the package Oakland received for Josh Donaldson, and after one month it was looking rough for the youngster; he posted an 8.27 ERA in April and the advanced stats supported his rough start.

Flash forward to July and he's starting to make Billy Beane help forget about the MVP-candidate. His latest performance included outdueling King Felix on July 4th, pitching seven shutout innings in a 2-0 win. Since returning from a minor league stint on May 23rd, Graveman owns a 1.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with a 38/15 K/BB ratio over 53.2 innings.

One of the keys to Graveman's success has been his slider. Even though he only throws it eight percent of the time, it limited hitters to a .200 AVG and .250 SLG in June with a 2.4 Pitchf/x value. Another key factor is his control; he's only issued more than two free passes once in the past nine starts. This is key considering Graveman doesn't strike out a ton of hitters (5.66 K/9).

So is this legit? I have to think regression is due. The traditional ground-ball pitcher has seen a rise in his fly-ball rate and hard hit contact but neither has come back to bite him yet. In addition his LOB rate is 100% in five of his past six starts, an unattainable number for any pitcher. He just doesn't rack up the Ks required to maintain a spot in shallow leagues and no one is going to trade for Graveman. That said anything above 12 team fixtures should hold Graveman and hope he keeps things going.

 

Cody Anderson (CLE, SP)

OWNED IN: 18% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ team leagues

Someone get Cody Anderson some butter because he's on a roll (throws tomato). The Indians could not be more ecstatic with the results from Anderson; a 0.76/0.63 pitching line with a 10/1 K/BB ratio over 23.2 innings, which included a perfect game bid through six at Tampa.

Before getting called up Anderson was effective in both AA and AAA (13 GS, 2.03 ERA). This was a noticeable improvement from his previous two seasons, with the main improvement being Anderson limiting the long balls (17 in 2014, 3 this season). Anderson does not have a dominating arsenal but relies primarily on his fourseam fastball and change while mixing in a cutter.  While Anderson doesn't blow batters away, he's shown the qualities of a professional pitcher who can pound the zone and avoid free passes (1.05 WHIP over 90 innings in 2015).

The .181 BABIP and 95.6 LOB% mixed with batters making hard contact 26% of the time are signs that regression are on the horizon. However the advanced stats don't think the regression will be that far from what we're seeing (2.92 FIP). All things considered, an ERA around 3.40 seems reasonable for Anderson ROS, making Anderson a quality play for deep leagues.

 

Jonathan Niese (NYM, SP)

OWNED IN: 8% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Stream Worthy / Add in NL-Only Leagues

Imagine being the fifth member of a pick-up basketball game. You're good, but merely as that last piece to the puzzle. Now say LeBron James and Kevin Durant decide they'd like to play for your squad. Your spot is looking non-existent at this point.

That's how Jonathan Niese must feel in the Mets rotation. He's solid enough to be a 5th starter for most ballclubs, but most ballclubs don't call up top 20 prospects (Syndergaard, Matz) within the same month. Niese has found himself on the trading block, auditioning for teams every outing.

And audition he has. Niese recorded five straight quality starts in June with a 3.00 ERA (although he was winless in that span). He's still allowing more baserunners than you'd prefer (1.33 WHIP in June) but he's shown he can step in a deliver useful ratios in H2H formats. I would advise passing on his next start at San Francisco considering their successes vs LHP but keep Niese on your watch list for future outings.

 

Manny Banuelos (ATL, SP)

OWNED IN: 5% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Stream Worth / Add in NL-Only Leagues

Now that's how you kill an audition for a rotation spot. Banuelos was fantastic in his Atlanta debut vs Washington, spinning 5.2 innings of two-hit shutout ball with seven strikeouts until dehydration took him out of the game in the 6th. Not many pundits (including myself) thought Banuelos would dazzle as he did. Here's the video proof.

Banuelos was a big-time prospect for the Yankees at one point, with Mariano Rivera labeling him "the best prospect he's ever seen". Strong praise considering the Yankees farm system during Rivera's rise.  Tommy John surgery halted his career projection and after an offseason trade for David Carpenter (since released and signed by Washington) Banuelos found himself among a glutton of young pitching prospects. He's now the fourth rookie to start a game for Atlanta (Wisler, Perez, Foltynewitz) and he may be the most enticing.

He features an average fastball with a plus change and curve. Walks were always an issue in the minors (4.14 BB/9 for AAA-Gwinnett) so the no walks debut was surprising. Here's his usage versus the Nationals:

The curve was inconsistent early on but made Harper look foolish in the fourth inning, a hard task to do. One of the main drawbacks to Banuelos is the uncertainty regarding a rotation spot. If the Braves are smart they'll let him stay over Williams Perez or gauge the trade market for Julio Teheran. Worst case scenario they throw him in the bullpen and stunt his development. Regardless, he's earned a second start at Milwaukee, one of the worst teams vs LHP to this point. He's worth a stream in shallow leagues and an add in deeper leagues with the hopes he's earned the right to hang around.

 

Other Pitchers Previously Highlighted to Consider

In Order of Ownership %

Taijuan Walker (SEA, SP / 73%; up 7%); Yovani Gallardo (TEX, SP / 68%);  Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL, SP / 61% ; up 8%);  Jaime Garcia (STL, SP / 60%; down 3%) Noah Syndergaard (NYM, SP / 60% ; up 1%);  Wei-Yin Chen (BAL, SP / 54% ; up 3%);  Jesse Chavez (OAK, SP / 46% ; down 9%);      Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS, SP / 42% ; down 6%);  Jesse Hahn (OAK, SP / 39% ; down 1%);  James Paxton (DL) (SEA, SP / 36% ; down 2%);  Mike Leake (CIN, SP / 32% ; up 1%);  Matt Moore (DL) (TB, SP / 31% ; up 6%);  Brett Anderson (LAD, SP / 24% ; up 5%);  Chase Anderson (ARI, SP / 15% ; down 4%);   Wandy Rodriguez (TEX, SP / 6% ; down 1%); Matt Wisler (ATL, SP / 6%)

 

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