November 15, 2016

Arkeno looks at some players off to unexpectedly hot starts in the 2016-17 NBA season. Follow RotoBaller for more fantasy basketball strategy, rankings, and waiver adds.

So here you are.  You are on top of your league with an unexpectedly hot start from a player you drafted in the 4th round or later -- or perhaps didn't draft at all.  Do you keep riding the wave or look to sell high?  Today we'll take a look at a group of players who weren't drafted in the top tier, but are putting up stats like it, and what to expect from them going forward.

Unexpected Early Season NBA Fantasy Stars

Myles Turner - Ranked 11th Overall / 14.6 Points / 7.0 Rebounds / 1.0 Assists / 1.0 Steals / 2.3 Blocks / 0.4 Threes

Simply put, Turner has been killing it.  With his ADP being around 75 his production is staggering.  Not only is he scoring high teens with great percents, he is also bringing in over two blocks while nearly averaging a steal a game.  The production is clearly top 25 worthy but can he sustain it?  My answer is yes!  If you have watched any of the Pacers games, you can clearly see how much this defense relies on him to protect the rim.  Guards funnel perimeter players to the middle so that Turner can start the block party.  His touches seem to be fairly regular and his touch is really special for a big man.  The only worry you could have is the fact that the Pacers have been so unpredictable.  This might lead to a change in style of player or rotation down the line, but from the looks of it this big man is ready to carry as must responsibility as the team is willing to give.

Rudy Gay – Ranked 18th Overall / 22.3 PPG / 6.5 Rebounds / 2.5 Assists / 1.4 Steals / 0.8 Blocks / 1.3 Threes

Rudy might be having the best start of his NBA career.  As a heavy offensive threat, he has found a way to expand his game this year and really give you some production across the board.  During the off season this summer Rudy did state that he will not be exercising his player option and will become a free agent in the summer of 2017.  His great start might be something that makes the Kings second guess putting Rudy on the trade market.  If they choose to stick it out they could lose him for nothing which makes his future uncertain.  The production has a great chance of maintaining throughout this season, but that is based on the assumption that he will stay in Sacramento or be traded to a team that needs his all-around input and not just his offense.

Avery Bradley – Ranked 20th Overall / 18.5 Points / 8.3 Rebounds / 3.6 Assists / 1.1 Steals / 0.4 Blocks / 2.4 Threes

This might be the biggest surprise of them all.  It isn’t the fact that Bradley is playing well, it’s the quality of the production.  With Al Horford and Jae Crowder out Bradley has seen minutes at Shooting Guard, and Small Forward.  Not only has this lead to an increase in minutes but Bradley is also averaging 8.3 rebounds which is second only to the ridiculous Russell Westbrook among guards.  Simply put, Bradley is playing out of his mind, but what will his production be once the team is back to full strength?  I am willing to believe that his numbers will go down across the board, but not by much.  You couldn’t complain much about a player putting up these numbers that you drafted in the second round.  Not only is Bradley as must own but he should be fetching a top 15 player at this point.

Otto Porter – Ranked 24th Overall / 15.2 Points / 7.8 Rebounds / 1.7 Assists / 1.1 Steals / 0.8 Blocks / 1.0 Threes

Porter started off playing pretty well, but as of late has been on fire.  Most of this can be attributed to the Wizards playing a pretty tight rotation with very little depth on the wings.  The Wizards need all the production they can get so they will keep going to Porter until the well runs dry.  Porter will have very steady numbers and every once in a while he might give you a great game with tons of counting stats as well as percents.

Steven Adams – Ranked 32nd Overall / 9.9 Points / 8.5 Rebounds / 0.8 Assists / 1.87 Steals / 1.0 Blocks / 0.0 Threes

Throw it down big fella throw it down.  This is what Adams does and is highly effective at.  While most of his dunks aren’t ally-ops the big man has great timing is almost always in perfect position for Russ to throw a great bounce pass for a dunk.  So far in the season Adams has found himself being one of Russell’s primary targets which is great news for his owners.  The one knock on Adams is that he doesn’t have much block upside, but the fact that he isn’t killing your FT% this year is HUGE!  Finding bigs that can give you a double double without hurting FT% is like finding a winning lottery ticket, it just doesn’t happen.  If you can get your hands on this big man, go for it, because the production will only get better.

Dwyane Wade – Ranked 45th Overall / 17.0 Points / 4.1 Rebounds / 2.9 Assist / 1.7 Steals / 0.5 Blocks / 1.2 Threes

Wade has shown some really impressive flashes so far this season.  He has been able to increase his shooting around the perimeter without taking too heavy of a dip in his FG%.  The 1.7 steals a game is a really big plus once you combine that with his 1.2 threes a game.  Wade provides grate scoring output while at the same time delivering great defensive stats.  In a perfect world, Wade could keep this up all season, but in reality it is more than likely that he will miss some time this year.  You should also take into consideration his career three point FG% being 28.6% in comparison to this year’s 35.3%.  The sample size is small but you are running the risk of Wade regressing to the mean which would also kill his FG% and total three-point output.  I would sell high.

Rodney Hood – Ranked 50th Overall / 17.4 Points / 4.4 Rebounds / 1.9 Assists / 0.9 Steals / 0.4 Blocks / 2.4 Threes

Hood is in a very interesting situation.  He has been playing far ahead of his 111 ADP and doesn’t look to be slowing down any time soon. Even with the highest usage player on the team coming back he seems to be pretty set in his role.  Hood might be the player on the team that benefits the most from Alec Burks injury as he has very little competition for minutes.  Hood has been shooting lights out at 48% from the field and I think he can keep this up.  If you drafted him this season, as long as he doesn’t get hurt, Hood can easily continue to be one of the pieces that pushes your team over the top.