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Brandon Murchison gives you his top 5 fantasy football rookie avoids. These first-year players should be avoided in dynasty rookie drafts: Colston Loveland, Jaylin Noel, Matthew Golden, Devin Neal, and Cam Skattebo.
In the high-stakes world of dynasty fantasy football, rookie drafts are a critical opportunity to build a championship-caliber roster that thrives for years to come. While the allure of unproven talent can be tempting, selecting the wrong players can set your team back significantly, draining resources and roster spots that could have been better utilized. Avoiding overhyped or risky rookies is just as important as identifying breakout stars, as it preserves draft capital and maintains roster flexibility in a format where long-term planning is paramount. By steering clear of potential busts, managers can focus on acquiring players with higher floors and sustainable production, setting the stage for consistent success.
The key to thriving in dynasty leagues lies in understanding the pitfalls that certain rookies present, whether due to poor team fit, limited skill sets, or inflated draft stock driven by hype. Players who land in crowded depth charts, lack elite athletic traits, or face coaching schemes that don’t align with their strengths often fail to deliver on their promise, leaving managers scrambling to recover. By identifying and avoiding these red flags early, you can allocate your draft picks toward prospects with clearer paths to opportunity and long-term relevance, ensuring your roster remains competitive season after season.
This article will dive into five rookies to avoid in your upcoming dynasty drafts, highlighting the specific risks that make them poor investments. From wide receivers in unstable situations to running backs with limited upside, I'll break down why these players are likely to underperform relative to their draft cost. By sidestepping these traps, you’ll position your team to capitalize on value elsewhere, building a dynasty that balances immediate impact with future potential and avoids the costly mistakes that can derail even the most promising rosters.
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Cam Skattebo - RB, New York Giants
Skattebo, the Arizona State running back selected by the New York Giants in the fourth round (105th overall) of the 2025 NFL Draft, presents a compelling yet risky profile for dynasty fantasy football managers. His 2024 college season was undeniably impressive, with 1,712 rushing yards (second in the NCAA), 21 rushing touchdowns, and 605 receiving yards on 45 receptions, showcasing his dual-threat ability and earning him a fifth-place finish in Heisman voting.
His physicality is a standout trait, as he forced 183 missed tackles since 2022 and had the highest career avoided tackle rate against Power 4 defenses among running backs drafted in Round 4 or earlier since 2017. However, his lack of elite athleticism, evidenced by a 4.65-second 40-yard dash at his pro day -- one of the slowest among his peers -- raises significant concerns about his ability to translate this production to the NFL.
This limited speed, combined with his reliance on volume (26.04 touches per game in 2024), suggests he may struggle to create explosive plays against faster, stronger NFL defenses, capping his ceiling as a fantasy asset.
Skattebo’s landing spot with the Giants further complicates his dynasty outlook, making him a player to avoid in 2025 rookie drafts. He joins a backfield with Tyrone Tracy Jr., who dominated touches in 2024 (70% of rush attempts and 65% of receptions over the final seven weeks), and Devin Singletary, a veteran favored by head coach Brian Daboll.
This crowded depth chart, coupled with the Giants’ shaky offensive line, where four-fifths of the unit earned a PFF run-blocking grade of 67.0 or lower in 2024, limits Skattebo’s immediate path to significant volume, which is critical for his fantasy value given his non-elite athletic profile.
Additionally, his pass protection needs improvement, potentially hindering his three-down role. The Giants coaching staff also faces job security concerns, which could lead to a backfield reset in 2026. With an Average Draft Position (ADP) as the RB7 and 17th overall in rookie drafts, Skattebo’s draft cost outweighs his likely role as a high-end handcuff or committee back, making him a risky investment for dynasty managers seeking long-term starters.
Devin Neal - RB, New Orleans Saints
Neal, selected by the New Orleans Saints in the sixth round (184th overall) of the 2025 NFL Draft, carries a resume that might initially entice dynasty managers. Still, his profile reveals significant risks that make him a player to avoid in rookie drafts.
Over four seasons at Kansas, Neal amassed an impressive 4,343 rushing yards, 53 total touchdowns, and 20 games with 100+ rushing yards, becoming the program's all-time leader in rushing yards and touchdowns.
His consistent production, including three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, and his receiving ability (24 receptions for 254 yards in 2024) highlight a workhorse skill set. However, his 4.58-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine -- among the slower times for running backs -- signals a lack of elite speed and explosiveness, critical traits for breaking away in the NFL.
This limitation was evident in college, where he was often caught from behind, with only 9% of his carries (38 of 420 over two years) resulting in 15+ yard gains, suggesting his chunk plays may not translate against faster NFL defenses.
Neal’s landing spot with the Saints further diminishes his dynasty appeal, as he faces a crowded backfield and uncertain role. Behind Alvin Kamara, who remains the primary back at age 30 with a contract through 2026, Neal must compete with Kendre Miller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire for backup touches, with no guarantee of a roster spot given his late-round draft capital.
The Saints offensive line, ranked seventh in run-blocking by PFF in 2024, is a positive, but Neal’s average burst and acceleration limit his ability to capitalize on open lanes compared to more dynamic backs. His pass protection improved in 2024 (76.2+ PFF grade in seven games), but occasional drops and a lack of elite receiving traits cap his three-down potential.
With an ADP in the third round of rookie drafts, Neal’s limited upside as a likely handcuff in a committee backfield makes him an overpriced gamble for dynasty managers seeking high-impact starters.
Matthew Golden - WR, Green Bay Packers
Golden, drafted by the Green Bay Packers with the 23rd overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, presents a high-risk profile for dynasty fantasy football managers due to his inconsistent production and crowded landing spot. Despite a blazing 4.29-second 40-yard dash and a productive 2024 season at Texas (58 receptions, 987 yards, nine touchdowns, 17.0 yards per catch), his career analytics raise red flags.
Golden’s career yards per route run (YPRR) of 1.85 and a peak of 2.10 in his final season are underwhelming for a first-round prospect, ranking him poorly among draft-eligible receivers.
His 18.8% targets per route run (TPRR) was the lowest among notable 2025 draft prospects, and he managed only four 100+ yard games in 36 college contests, indicating limited dominance despite favorable draft capital.
These metrics suggest Golden’s efficiency relies heavily on his speed rather than consistent target-earning ability, making him a boom-or-bust prospect who may struggle to deliver reliable fantasy production.
The Packers receiver room further complicates Golden’s dynasty outlook, as he enters a crowded rotation with Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and tight end Tucker Kraft, while Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs face uncertain futures due to injuries and contract status.
Green Bay’s scheme under Matt LaFleur spreads targets widely, with no receiver exceeding 80 targets in 2024, and Golden’s 1.6 YPRR at Texas (fifth among the team’s top receivers) suggests he may not command a high target share.
His slight frame (5-foot-11, 191 pounds) and struggles against physical coverage limit his ability to win consistently in contested situations, reducing his appeal in a system that doesn’t funnel volume to one player.
With an ADP in the late first to early second round of rookie drafts, Golden’s draft cost outweighs his likely role as a situational deep threat with sporadic production, making him a risky pick for dynasty managers seeking dependable contributors.
Jaylin Noel - WR, Houston Texans
Noel, selected by the Houston Texans in the third round (79th overall) of the 2025 NFL Draft, brings an enticing athletic profile, but significant risks that make him a player to avoid in dynasty rookie drafts.
His 2024 season at Iowa State was impressive, with 80 receptions for 1,194 yards and eight touchdowns, earning him honorable mention All-Big 12 honors, while his NFL Combine performance -- a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, 41.5-inch vertical, and 11-foot 2-inch broad jump -- highlighted elite athleticism.
However, his 5-foot-10, 194-pound frame and 29½-inch arm length limit his catch radius and ability to win contested catches (52% contested catch rate in 2024), critical for a slot receiver facing physical NFL defenses.
His 1.98 YPRR and 33% dominator rating are solid, but not elite. His production was inflated by a high target share (27.3%) due to poor quarterback play from Rocco Becht (61.3% completion rate), suggesting he may struggle to replicate this efficiency with less volume in the pros.
Noel’s landing spot in Houston further dampens his dynasty appeal, as he joins a crowded and talented receiver room that stifles his path to immediate relevance.
With Nico Collins established as the WR1, Christian Kirk (returning from a 2024 collarbone injury) commanding slot targets, and fellow rookie Jayden Higgins (a second-round pick) likely ahead of him, Noel faces stiff competition for touches.
The Texans’ 2024 offense spread targets thinly, with no receiver outside Collins exceeding 70 targets, and Tank Dell’s potential return from a 2024 knee injury adds another layer of uncertainty.
Noel’s special-teams experience as a punt and kick returner (Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Year in 2024) may keep him active, but his ADP as an early second-round rookie pick overvalues his likely role as a WR3 or WR4 with limited target share.
Dynasty managers should avoid Noel’s high draft cost, as his ceiling is capped by situation and physical limitations, making him a risky investment for long-term production.
Colston Loveland - TE, Chicago Bears
Loveland, selected by the Chicago Bears with the 10th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, enters the NFL with significant hype as a dynamic tight-end prospect. However, his fantasy outlook for dynasty leagues is fraught with risks that make him a player to avoid in rookie drafts.
His college production at Michigan was solid, with 117 receptions for 1,466 yards and 11 touchdowns over three seasons, including a 2024 campaign where he led the Wolverines with 56 receptions for 582 yards and five touchdowns in 10 games despite a shoulder injury.
However, his per-play efficiency raises concerns, as his 2.22 YPRR and 5.4 yards after catch per reception are modest compared to elite tight-end prospects. He forced only eight missed tackles in his career, indicating limited explosiveness after the catch.
Additionally, his 7.1% career drop rate and poor contested catch performance (2-of-10 targets in 2024) suggest reliability issues, especially in a Bears offense that struggled with quarterback accuracy in 2024, where Caleb Williams posted a 62.5% completion rate and 15.3% inaccurate throw rate.
The Bears’ crowded receiving corps and Loveland’s situational challenges further diminish his dynasty appeal. He joins a team with established targets like DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and rookie Luther Burden III, plus a resurgent Cole Kmet, who is under contract through 2027 and posted a 47/474/4 line in 2024.
Kmet’s presence, particularly as a superior blocker (PFF run-blocking grade of 72.3 vs. Loveland’s 65.1), could limit Loveland’s early down snaps, as he lacks the size and strength to consistently handle in-line blocking duties against NFL defensive ends.
The Bears' passing game, hampered by Williams’ inconsistent rookie season and a conservative offensive scheme, may not generate enough volume to support multiple fantasy-relevant pass-catchers.
With an ADP in the mid-to-late first round of rookie drafts, Loveland’s draft cost assumes immediate TE1 production, but his likely role as a rotational pass-catcher with limited red-zone upside (only five college touchdowns in 2024) and competition for targets makes him a risky investment for dynasty managers seeking reliable starters.
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