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Matt's tight end (TE) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 16 of 2024. His TE lineups advice for Week 16 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Another week is in the books, and we continue to inch closer to a Laquan Jones blonde dye job. That's right, Jonnu Smith dropped another 19 fantasy points and another top-5 fantasy week. The Miami tight end is currently sitting at 179.9 fantasy points (12.9 FPPG), which has him 15 points clear of TE5 Travis Kelce and 35 fantasy points ahead of Mark Andrews, who is TE6 through 15 weeks.
.@RealDealFantasy said he would dye his hair blond if Jonnu Smith finished as a top 5 TE and he is currently the TE5 👀 pic.twitter.com/s410Fv8DAl
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 29, 2024
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The tight-end position has been a fantasy roller coaster all season. If you want to talk about being stuck in a glass case of emotion, remember it wasn't that long ago when we were fading Mark Andrews and Sam LaPorta. Now, with championship births on the line, we are looking to familiar faces once again to help us reach the promised land.
Which tight ends are poised to produce when it matters the most, and which tight ends will lead fantasy managers astray? Here are your RotoBaller starts and sits at the tight end position for Week 16.
Week 16 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
George Kittle - TE, San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
The only 49er worth a lick last Thursday was George Kittle, who produced 61 receiving yards on his four receptions. I get it, the weather sucked, time to get over it. Kittle sits first in fantasy in standard scoring and is third in PPR formats with 194.1 fantasy points to date. The overall TE1 is within reach, thanks to Kittle's seasonal average of 16.2 fantasy points per game.
In the 12 games that Kittle has suited up this season, he has only failed to record double-digit fantasy production in two of those contests and has recorded 10 or more fantasy points in 10 of the last 11 games. Heading into Week 16, Kittle is 139 yards shy of 1000. He may get there this week against the Miami Dolphins; it isn't out of the realm of possibilities.
Over the last four weeks, Miami has allowed a league-high 345 receiving yards to the tight end position. The Dolphins are also allowing 19.55 fantasy points per game to the tight end position, which is the second-most trailing only the Cleveland Browns over that period.
David Njoku - TE, vs. Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Word around the water cooler is that David Njoku made a strong push to activate himself for that Week 15 contest against the Chiefs before ultimately being ruled out. Whether weather played a small part in that final decision, I am not privileged to that information. This week, I fully expect him to play and contribute for fantasy managers looking to punch their ticket to the fantasy Championship.
Last week's matchup against the Chiefs was a great opportunity; it may be even better this week. Cincinnati allows a league-worst 17.09 fantasy points per game to the tight ends. The Bengals have allowed 940 receiving yards to the position, not to mention nine receiving touchdowns, both ranking among the three highest. Even over the previous four weeks, the Bengals haven't been any better, as they have allowed 18.30 fantasy points against them over that period.
Njoku has produced 17 or more fantasy points in three of his previous four contests and five of the last seven. If Njoku suits up, another 17-point performance could also hit fantasy managers' lineups.
Brenton Strange - TE, Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
Brenton Strange came to the rescue if you needed a streaming option last week. With news that Evan Engram had been lost for the season, Strange casually hung 18.3 fantasy points on the New York Jets thanks to 11 receptions and 73 receiving yards.
Strangely, Strange has hit nine fantasy points or more on five occasions this season, filling in admirably for Evan Engram when the Pro Bowl tight end has missed time. Engram has been ruled out for the season, meaning Strange will see plenty of opportunities over the next few weeks.
2. Jaguars TE Brenton Strange also commanded a 26.1% target share in Evan Engram’s absence.
In five games without Engram this year, Strange now averages 6.2 targets/g (~TE7) and 10.9 FPG (~TE8)
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) December 16, 2024
Fantasy football is unpredictable. We analyze every matchup, break down the data, and do everything short of tracking player meals. Then again, there is probably a website dedicated to that. One thing that is tried and true is to start tight ends against the Raiders. Before the Falcons took on the Raiders to close out Week 15, the Raiders had been allowing 17.28 fantasy points per game to the position over the last four weeks, as well as the fifth-most points per game over the entirety of the season (15.87).
Week 16 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Pat Freiermuth - TE, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
I, for one, have been riding Freiermuth over each of the previous two weeks. Sometimes, you need to know when to hold them and when to fold them. Now is the time to run away. Sure, Freiermuth is second on the Steelers in receiving yards, but let's be honest, that is like placing second in a one-legged butt-kicking contest.
When the Ravens and Steelers had previously locked up, Freiermuth was held to two catches and 14 yards. That's 3.4 fantasy points. I get that three consecutive weeks with a touchdown looks attractive. However, Baltimore has allowed just 145 receiving yards to the position over the last four weeks. Over that period, they are also only allowing 10.83 fantasy points against, the sixth-fewest.
We have the sixth-best defense in fantasy, facing the TE3 in fantasy over the last four weeks. Something has to give. I hope it's not your birth in the fantasy finals if you roll with the Steelers' tight end again.
Hunter Henry - TE, New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
I've been fading Hunter Henry for a few weeks now. Henry has just one double-digit fantasy outcome over his last four games and is coming off a 6.5-point outing against the Cardinals, where he caught four receptions for just 25 yards. Now credit the Cardinals' defense; they have been a top-10 unit over the last four weeks. However, so has Henry's opponent for Week 16.
Over the last four weeks, no team has allowed fewer receiving yards to the position than the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo has yielded 60 receiving yards and allowed 9.00 fantasy points against the position over the previous four weeks. Meanwhile, on the season, Buffalo has allowed just 10.79 fantasy points per game to the position.
Cade Otton - TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
If Mike Evans is healthy and playing, you have to sit Cade Otton. Once Evans returned to the lineup, Otton slipped to the TE21 in fantasy. Since Week 12, Otton has averaged 6.1 fantasy points per game, which puts him in the same tier as Cole Kmet, Isaiah Likely, and Michael Mayer. I don't know about you, but that is pretty damning.
Last week, Otton faced a Chargers team that was allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points against the position this season and performed as expected, registering 4.4 fantasy points on two receptions and 24 yards. This week, Otton faces another less-than-favorable matchup: the Dallas Cowboys are allowing 10.57 fantasy points per game against, the eighth fewest.
Otton has seen his role in this offense shrink. Over the last four weeks, we often see Evans, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and even the running back duo of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White as featured targets in the passing game. Once again, with a diminished role and a tough matchup, count me out on Otton during the fantasy playoffs.
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