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The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 24

matt olson fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers mlb injury news

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

The end (of the season) is near and for many, this weekend is the penultimate chance you have of making changes in a bid to edge towards glory in your fantasy leagues. It's now more crucial than ever to monitor the news and check schedules as an IL stint at this stage can end a player's season or a tough set of games can effectively make a player not worth rostering.

As we near the end of the season, we need to consider making moves with specific targets in mind, whether it's to make up ground or to hold on to the top spot. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates are taken from Yahoo! and reflect when this piece was written, while ADP is taken from NFBC.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Michael Kopech – SP/RP, Chicago White Sox – 77% rostered

As I was finishing off this week's Cut List on Saturday evening, news broke that Kopech was heading to the IL with shoulder inflammation. It's retroactive to Tuesday meaning he can return this month, but it's just as likely that he could miss the remainder of the regular season.

Until we hear more, we assume Kopech is going to return but if you're wondering why there are four players in the Worth Dropping and Replacing section and only two in the Hold For Now portion, it's because I downgraded Kopech this morning.

When healthy, Kopech has impressed in his first full season as a part of the White Sox starting rotation. In 25 starts, Kopech has a 5-9 W-L record, 3.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 105 Ks (119.1 IP). His underlying numbers do suggest he's been a tad fortunate, with a 3.93 xERA, 4.84 xFIP, and 4.73 SIERA.

Kopech's .226 BABIP is the second lowest among the 116 pitchers with at least 100.0 IP this year. And the results have been faltering of late, with a 7.98 ERA over his last four starts (14.2 IP). He did hit the IL with a knee strain and may have been pitching through the shoulder issue so I'm not putting too much into the last few outings.

We can see from his rolling xwOBA that he hasn't gradually declined as the season has progressed and the recent spike over the past 50 PA was caused by the outings prior to and immediately after his IL stint with the knee problem (totaled eight earned runs in 3.2 IP).

Averaging less than five innings per start has really handcuffed Kopech's ability to pick up wins and he has only eight quality starts (all eight occasions in which Kopech has completed six innings). But the White Sox are in a scrap for a playoff berth so if Kopech is healthy, they will likely ensure he's on the mound in some role.

Verdict: Even if Kopech misses the minimum 15 days, he'll still only be looking at two starts, assuming the White Sox don't use him out of the bullpen and whatever his role is, it's unlikely Kopech goes multiple innings. If you have an empty IL spot, use it but I'm not sure we see Kopech pitch again in 2022 and certainly don't foresee double-digit innings from him, making Kopech droppable.

Noah Syndergaard – SP, Philadelphia Phillies – 66% rostered

Syndergaard hasn't been the same pitcher for the Phillies as he was for the Angels prior to the trade. It's had a similar vibe to when the Phillies traded for Kyle Gibson last year after he put up a 2.87 ERA with the Rangers, only to have a 5.09 ERA in Philadelphia.

Prior to the trade, Syndergaard had a 3.83 ERA (80.0 IP) but with the Phillies, he has a 4.79 ERA (47.0 IP). Across the entire season, Syndergaard has a 9-10 W-L record, 4.18 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 90 Ks (127.0 IP). Given he missed the 2020 season and only pitched two innings last year following Tommy John Surgery, he's not performed too badly.

The most noticeable thing with Syndergaard has been the fall in strikeouts. After entering the year with a 26.4% K% in the Majors, he only has a 16.8% K% this year, which ranks in the 13th percentile. His 5.4% BB% (86th percentile) is more in line with his career 5.6% BB% but the strikeouts have impacted his fantasy value significantly.

And since joining the Phillies, the strikeouts have declined even further. He currently has a 13.1% K% in his eight starts with the Phillies and a look at his pitch usage will help explain why.

The dramatic increase in his sinker, which has a 10.4% whiff% has been the main contributing factor to Syndergaard's lower strikeout rate with the Phillies. His fastball has a 20.4% whiff%, nothing remarkable but still considerably better than his sinker.

The Phillies have been a disaster defensively this year, especially in the outfield. Their infield ranks 25th in Outs Above Average (OAA) with -11 but the outfield ranks 29th (-19 OAA). So trying to keep the ball on the infield makes sense as they are only bad defensively there and not a complete dumpster fire, like the outfield.

That will help explain why the Phillies want Syndergaard throwing his sinker more and given it has a .408 SLG against it, he should be getting better results than he has been. His 4.44 xFIP and 4.77 SIERA with the Phillies are similar to his 4.79 ERA but his .331 BABIP will go some way to explain why the ERA has crept up since the trade.

Verdict: Syndergaard is scheduled to make three more starts, likely to be against the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Nationals. While two of those starts are good matchups, he's allowed three or more runs in six of his eight starts with the Phillies which will limit his chances of getting a win. Coupled with the lack of strikeouts means I'm fine dropping Sundergaard in all but the deeper leagues.

Brandon Lowe – 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays – 60% rostered

Lowe will end the season as one of the biggest draft day busts of the year. After a 39-homer season in 2021, he entered this season with an ADP of ~75 (eighth among second basemen). As of now, he ranks as the 78th-second baseman on Yahoo! this year (891st overall).

That's largely been down to injury and he's currently on the IL for a third time this season, the second time with a back issue. I've alluded to this before but anyone reading this over the age of 30 will be able to attest to back issues and how difficult they can be to overcome.

Given Lowe's first IL stint came back in mid-May, it's fair to assume it's been hampering him throughout the season and will go a long way to explaining his .221/.308/.383 slash line, with eight homers, 25 RBI, 31 runs, and one stolen base (65 games).

All we know is an MRI showed some inflammation in Lowe's lower back and he's first eligible to return next week. But considering this has been an ongoing issue throughout 2022, it's safe to believe we don't see Lowe again this year.

Verdict: If you have an unoccupied IL spot, you can put Lowe on in the hope he might return healthy for a few games, then by all means use it. But there's little reason to believe he'll return this year let alone provide any fantasy value so he's droppable in any redraft league.

Austin Hays – OF, Baltimore Orioles – 51% rostered

Hays has had a perfectly good season. As well as providing some pleasing alliteration, he's outperformed his ADP of ~239 (66th outfielder) as he currently ranks 217th overall on Yahoo! (65th outfielder) with a .249/.306/.414 slash line, 15 homers, 55 RBI, 59 runs, and two stolen bases (128 games).

Hays looks like he will fall short of having a second consecutive 20-homer season, after his 21 home run campaign last year (coming in just 131 games). And a big reason for that can be attributed to the Orioles deciding to move back and heightened their left field fences.

If we look at Hays' hit chart this year, you can see where he hits the large majority of his home runs.

To give you an idea of how badly Hays has been impacted by the left-field changes, we can look at his expected home runs per ballpark. At Oriole Park, Hays has an expected home run total of 11, which is the least of any ballpark. The highest is 20 expected home runs at Minute Maid Park and Great American Ballpark.

It's pretty obvious by now that the left-field changes have caused a significant drop-off in home runs for the Orioles lineup, but Hays has still been able to contribute to fantasy teams as we have shown. So why am I advocating dropping him now?

Part of it is the Orioles' remaining schedule, with 10 games at home and seven on the road. If your league ends after next week, you only have seven home games left for Orioles hitters and although Hays has a better slash line at home (.263/.336/.417) than on the road (.236/.277/.412), only six of his 15 homers have come at home.

The other reason I'm condoning dropping Hays now is due to the Orioles' offense slowing down and a pretty dramatic decline in Hays' runs and RBI totals. In September, the Orioles scored 56 runs in 15 games, which is an average of 3.73 runs per game.

Hays has scored just one of those 56 runs and driven in just one while hitting .211/.286/.289. If we go back over the last 30 days, Hays is hitting .231/.294/.385 with two homers, six RBI, six runs, and no stolen bases. That ranks him 125th among outfielders on Yahoo! over that period.

Verdict: Hays has been a solid fourth/fifth outfielder in deeper fantasy leagues this year but has only been a fringe option in shallower leagues. Given what he and the Orioles have done in recent weeks plus the majority of remaining games being at home, Hays is droppable in all but the deepest of leagues. Especially if the upcoming week is the last one in your fantasy leagues.


Hold For Now

Matt Olson – 1B, Atlanta Braves – 98% rostered

Replacing Freddie Freeman was never going to be an easy task but Olson has done so admirably, for the most part, hitting .235/.321/.460 with 28 homers, 91 RBI, 75 runs, and no stolen bases. He also ranks tied third in Defensive Runs Saved and tied second in Outs Above Average at first base.

We can see from his Statcast profile that Olson hits the ball harder than almost everyone else in baseball but after having a career-low (over a full season) 16.8% K% in 2021, his 23.6% K% this year is higher than his career mark (23.4% K%).

And while Olson has been a consistent performer throughout the season, hitting between .234 and .252 every month since May, September is proving to be a real struggle. Olson is hitting just .080/.193/.140 this month with just four hits in 14 games. One of the hits was a homer that also accounted for 75% of his RBI in September.

This all came after an August in which Olson hit six homers with a .216 ISO and .243/.315/.459 slash line. It's hard to understand how his numbers could fall off so badly in the space of 2-3 weeks and any other time in the season, I wouldn't even give it a second thought.

But with less than three weeks until the end of the regular season, it's worth noting and while it's unlikely you'll be able to find a suitable replacement on waivers, I would consider picking up someone like Michael Toglia for the seven Coors Field games coming up and benching Olson rather than dropping him.

I expect he does turn his month around and I doubt he hits under .100 much longer. Given his history and track record, I can't bring myself to flat-out drop Olson but it's difficult starting him right now so benching him until he can get going again seems like the best course of action.

Brendan Rodgers – 2B/SS, Colorado Rockies – 63% rostered

You may have noticed that schedules play a much bigger part in my decision-making at this time of the season. You may also remember that last week, I was fine with dropping Charlie Blackmon due to the fact the Rockies had many more road games than home games.

They finish up their five-game road trip in Chicago today before heading home for seven games against the Giants and Padres. They then end the season with nine road games, at the Giants (three) and the Dodgers (six). If you held on to your Rockies hitters through the last week, you're starting them this coming week or there's no point rostering them.

If you haven't worked it out, it's down to the home/road splits most Rockies hitters have and Rodgers' splits are possibly the widest on the roster, as we can see below.

Home 297 10 46 46 .313 .377 .498 .185 116
Road 254 1 14 22 .203 .252 .284 .081 49

In September alone, the Rockies have scored 45 runs in their six home games (averaging 7.5 per game) while they have scored just 19 runs in their eight road games (averaging 2.4 runs per game). The Rockies are just a completely different animal at home than on the road.

So it's not just Rodgers who struggles on the road. Even if he hit well away from Coors Field, he wouldn't get the support in the lineup to score enough runs or tally RBI to be worth rostering after next week. But as we've shown, Rodgers has been dreadful outside of Colorado.

If I still have Rodgers (or any Rockies hitter) on my roster, I'm starting them next week and then wouldn't think twice about dropping them for the final week and a half. Considering his road numbers, there will probably be at least a handful of better options in any league size.


On the Hot Seat

Joe Musgrove – SP, San Diego Padres – 97% rostered

Since joining the Padres, Musgrove has emerged as an ace for the team, building on last year by putting up a 10-7 W-L record, 3.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 165 Ks (165.0 IP) this year. And prior to his last five starts, Musgrove was boasting a sub-3.00 ERA. We can see how much regression there has been in his recent outings.

The only slight you can have on Musgrove this year is a drop in strikeouts. After putting up a 27.1% K% in 2021, he's down to a 24.5% K% this year (59th percentile). Given his ERA and the fact he has 20 quality starts (27 starts total), just picking up 10 wins has been a letdown. But at least Musgrove has kept up his end of the bargain!

So what of his last five starts? They've combined for a 4.50 ERA, so it's not like Musgrove has been completely blown up in any outing, with four earned runs being the most he's allowed in any of the starts. But they still don't all make for pretty viewing.

Date Opponent W/L IP R ER K BB
26-Aug Royals ND 3.2 5 2 2 1
31-Aug Giants W 6.2 3 3 11 2
06-Sep Diamondbacks ND 4.1 5 4 3 2
11-Sep Dodgers L 5.1 4 4 5 1
17-Sep Diamondbacks W 6.0 0 0 8 0

Any fantasy manager with concerns about Musgrove will hopefully be much more comfortable about rostering him this morning. If we look at his previous four starts, they combined for a 5.85 ERA so it shows how much one outing can impact a small sample.

The difficulty comes with Musgrove's three remaining starts. As things currently stand, he is scheduled to face the Rockies at Coors Field, followed by the Dodgers, and then finishing his season against the Giants. So you'd be forgiven for benching Musgrove for his next two starts.

And if you do that, how much value is there in rostering Musgrove for one start against the Giants, in what could be a meaningless game and one the Padres choose to limit or skip Musgrove with a wildcard series looming?

That's entirely dependent on your team, what you're playing for and what your needs are. If your fantasy league ends before the last few days of the regular season, are you even going to start Musgrove again? Unless you're chasing and need help with strikeouts and wins, probably not.

Even if yesterday's start has you confident that Musgrove is back to his best, you'd still have a decision to make on him. But given some of his recent shaky starts, the next two scheduled outings are scary and I totally understand if you choose to drop Musgrove rather than risk starting him.

The one important thing to remember is at this stage of the season, in roto leagues, a pitcher giving up six earned runs in five innings does far less to your overall ERA than it would have in May. In head-to-head leagues of course, that sort of start is much more damaging. It's pretty much a 50/50 call with what you do with Musgrove right now.


Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Yordan Alvarez – OF, Houston Astros – 99% rostered

Remember, the requests come in on Sunday so before you wonder why someone asked about Alvarez and why I included him, the write-up was commenced earlier in the week and long before he did this on Friday.

I remember including Ty France not so long ago after being requested to do so and he had been homerless for weeks following his return from injury. In the following week, he homered multiple times. Alvarez followed suit this week and even before his three home run game on Friday, he had hit two homers earlier in the week.

I didn't know with France and I don't know with Alvarez; whether this is because he's getting healthy? Is it due to finding a way to deal with the issue? Or is the mindset one of "screw it, the wrist isn't getting better so I'm just going to deal with it and power through the pain?"

From a fantasy standpoint, it doesn't matter. As long Alvarez is playing and playing well. In 12 games this month, he's hitting .378/.481/.889 with six homers, nine RBI, 11 runs, and no steals. Alvarez continues to hit third in the lineup and the Astros offense has been pretty potent in September (69 runs scored ranks tied seventh).

The only nagging doubt I have in my mind is that Alvarez could find himself on the IL at any point. How healthy is the wrist and is there a chance of re-aggravating things? There's always that possibility. And the Astros might wind up putting him on the IL given their current situation.

Despite the Yankees' recent resurgence, the Astros are still heavy favorites to clinch the number one seed in the AL so could opt to put Alvarez on the IL rather than have him play through any flare-up of the issue. That could leave enough time for him to return and play a few games before the playoffs begin.

But that's all conjecture and possibilities. I'm not going to drop one of the best hitters in the game unless I'm forced to and his recent resurgence suggests he's as healthy as he needs to be. If it does come to it and Alvarez hits the IL, then our decision has been made for us. But until such time, I'm holding and hoping the wrist holds up too.

Adam Wainwright – SP, St Louis Cardinals – 89% rostered

I'm a regular at saying "Father Time remains undefeated." And whilst that statement remains true, Wainwright is certainly pushing back against it. In his 17th season in the Majors, Wainwright has an 11-9 W-L record, 3.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 137 Ks (178.0 IP).

Wainwright has a chance to make it back-to-back seasons of 200+ IP and has a 3.16 ERA over the last three seasons (450.0 IP). Just as we thought he was beginning to slow down with a pair of 'four runs in five innings' starts, he and Yadier Molina gave us an iconic moment on Wednesday.

Wainwright and Molina broke the record for starts as a battery, their 325th. Wainwright went on to pick up the win, pitching five innings and allowing just one earned run.

It wasn't the prettiest win of Wainwright's career and was the fourth consecutive start of giving up eight or more hits. But at least he managed to limit the damage this time. And if we go back to his complete game against the Brewers seven starts ago, Wainwright has a 2.89 ERA in his last 43.2 IP.

Wainwright hasn't reached 100 pitches in his last three starts, which may be the Cardinals trying to keep him as fresh as possible for a likely postseason run. They are odds on to win the division but unlikely to avoid a Wild Card series so face the prospect of four playoff series if they are to win it all.

Wainwright's strikeout numbers aren't great (18.6% which ranks in the 24th percentile) but he has picked up two wins in his last three starts, despite only going five innings in each of them. As long as the Cardinals' offense keeps clicking, Wainwright can still pick you up a couple more wins this year while he won't blow up your ratios, even if he struggles.

Pablo Lopez – SP, Miami Marlins – 84% rostered

It's been a rough ending to the 2022 season for Lopez. In his first 20 starts of the season, Lopez had a 3.30 ERA (116.0 IP) but in his last nine outings, he's put up a 6.50 ERA which has seen his current line look far uglier than it did six weeks ago.

Lopez is now sitting on a 9-10 W-L record, 3.99 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 156 Ks (160.1 IP). He's not been able to build on last year when he posted a 3.07 ERA (102.2 IP) which has largely been down to an increase in walks and decline in strikeouts.

As we can see from his Statcast profile, Lopez's 23.5% K% and 7.5% BB% have both regressed to around league average and while he still has good swing-and-miss stuff, hitters are making solid contact more regularly too.

Outside of Sandy Alcantara, there has been very little to get excited about if you're a Marlins fan this year. Lopez did offer a glimpse into his potential earlier in the season, but his recent struggles have summed up the team's season, and only Oakland (511) and Detroit (477) have scored fewer runs than Miami (520).

There is a slither of optimism for Lopez as in his last six starts, he's been able to bounce back effectively from his disastrous outings. Following a six earned runs start against the Padres on August 17th, he threw six shutout innings against the Athletics six days later.

And after his worst start of the season last Saturday (eight earned runs in 3.2 IP against the Mets), he picked up the win on Thursday against the Phillies, allowing just two earned runs (6.2 IP). Lopez likely will face the Mets again as one of his final three starts he's set to make.

In shallower leagues, I'm fine dropping Lopez at this stage of the season, although he's set to face the Cubs and Brewers on either side of the Mets so it's not like he has a difficult schedule to finish the season. Outside of the Mets game, I wouldn't have too many fears about starting Lopez.

But he doesn't offer enough of anything in standard 5x5 leagues to warrant being an absolute hold and even in leagues counting quality starts, after having eight in his first 20 starts, he's only managed three in his last nine appearances.

In deeper leagues, I'd be more tempted to hold on to Lopez rather than taking a dart throw from waivers to replace him. In his last nine starts, Lopez has a 4.09 xFIP and 4.36 SIERA. Not very good but considerably better than his 6.50 ERA in that time and enough to justify holding him in deep leagues.

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