The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who to Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 17)

July 21, 2025

The Cut List for Week 17 of 2025. Jamie analyzes potential fantasy baseball busts, overvalued players, and injured players who you may want to consider dropping.

Welcome back to The Cut List as we head into Week 17 of the 2025 season. Given that each MLB team has only played two games since last week's edition, there isn't much to cover regarding their numbers. Instead, this week, we'll be focusing on players currently on the Injured List (IL).

We'll examine players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for potential replacements, and individuals on the hot seat who are worth holding onto ... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms, or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo). Maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Introduction

As I say for normal Cut Lists, dropping someone is entirely league-dependent. That is even more so the case when it comes to injured players. For almost all players on the IL, if you can stash them, then do so. But every league has a different number of IL and bench spots.

We're at a time of the year when streaming pitchers may be required to make up ground. If so, do you want to use a bench spot on an injured player we might not see again until September, or use it to pick up good streaming options you can rotate over the next few weeks?

Perhaps you're in a league with only one IL spot available and need to decide who is worthy of holding onto. Will the late-season boost to your pitching staff be more beneficial than whatever the injured hitter you're holding will do to end the season? These are the decisions you'll need to make.

Next week, we will be returning to our usual Cut List. Without further ado, let's look at eight players currently residing on the IL and what we should be doing with them.

Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Roki Sasaki - SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - 69% rostered

Few overseas rookies have come into the league with as much hype as Sasaki did. Unfortunately, he failed to live up to the hype before a shoulder injury led to Sasaki being placed on the IL. Although he's eligible to return now, it appears we're a few weeks away from seeing Sasaki with the Dodgers.

Dave Roberts said Roki Sasaki has started throwing bullpen sessions and is feeling pain-free. Brought up a late August timetable for him.

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) July 13, 2025

After Sasaki put up disappointing numbers to begin his Major League career, it's difficult to believe we'll get fantasy value from him when he returns. In eight starts, Sasaki had a 1-1 W-L record, 4.72 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and 24 Ks (34 1/3 innings).

There isn't much to be optimistic about with any of Sasaki's numbers. His 5.73 xFIP and 5.75 SIERA indicate that his ERA was somewhat lucky not to be higher, and Sasaki's 14.3% BB% is the fifth-highest among the 347 pitchers to have thrown at least 30 innings.

What can we expect from Sasaki when he returns? Given how careful the Dodgers were with Sasaki's workload to begin the season, it's fair to assume we see something similar. He only completed six innings in one of his eight starts, and five innings four times.

Some of Sasaki's struggles could have been due to having a shoulder issue before landing on the IL. If he is fully healthy, we may see something resembling the real Sasaki. The one that led to so many fantasy managers using a top-100 pick on drafting him.

Given Sasaki's innings total in the six weeks to begin the season, he likely won't even double that after he's back. If we do see Sasaki pitching for the Dodgers in late August, six weeks is the most we'll get. That's simply not going to be enough to get any fantasy value from someone with a limited workload.

Verdict: Sasaki still has to avoid any setbacks in the coming weeks. Even if he does and performs like many hoped he would, the amount of innings we'll get won't be enough for Sasaki to help us. The early-season struggles and lack of innings we'll get from Sasaki make him a drop in redraft leagues. 

Rhys Hoskins - 1B, Milwaukee Brewers - 28% rostered

Hoskins suffered one of the more freakish injuries we've seen this year. He sprained his thumb while tagging out a runner at first base following a wide throw from shortstop Joey Ortiz. After an MRI, it was confirmed that Hoskins suffered a UCL thumb sprain.

Rhys Hoskins said the MRI revealed a UCL left thumb sprain. He will be in a splint and will miss approximately six weeks.

— Sophia Minnaert (@SophiaMinnaert) July 8, 2025

A six-week absence may be a little misleading. Following the diagnosis, Hoskins stated:

"I was told about six weeks. Some are eight, some are four. So I think pretty conservative is at that six-week mark, so that’s what I’m going to have in my head as when I can hopefully rejoin this team.”

As a result, six weeks seems to be the common belief as to when he'll return. We could end up seeing Hoskins back in early August. We may not see him back in August at all. Even if we're going to be more optimistic on a quick return, Hoskins wasn't exactly a solid fantasy option.

Hoskins missed a week, but still only ranked 35th among first basemen at the time of the All-Star break (standard 5x5 rotisserie scoring). With first base a position of depth, the loss of Hoskins should have impacted your fantasy teams less than most other players would.

There's a good chance you replaced Hoskins with a better option already. He was only hitting .242/.340/.428 with 12 homers, 42 RBI, 30 runs, and two steals (82 games) before getting injured. That's something which is generally replaceable off waivers in all but very deep leagues.

Verdict: If Hoskins returns and plays 40 more games, his early-season pace means we can only expect around six home runs, 20 RBI, and 15 runs. That is likely the best-case scenario. Hoskins is borderline rosterable in 15-team leagues. Anything shallower and you move on.

Hold For Now

Austin Riley - 3B, Atlanta Braves - 99% rostered

Riley's injury came out of the blue for many fantasy managers heading into the All-Star Break. He was removed from last Friday's game following some discomfort after fielding a ball. What was later described as being precautionary, Riley's removal resulted in an IL stint.

Austin Riley is headed to the Injured List with a strained right abdomen pic.twitter.com/JYiKY5yEPH

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 12, 2025

At present, we do not have a timeline. Abdominal strains can have varying recovery periods. We did hear on Friday that Riley participated in batting practice, suggesting his absence won't be a long one. If it turns out to be a more severe strain, Riley might be out until late August.

Providing we don't get news that it's an extended absence for Riley, he's someone well worth holding. While the three consecutive seasons of 30+ home runs look to be a mirage, Riley is still a very productive third baseman.

In 93 games, Riley has 14 homers, 48 RBI, 51 runs, and two steals with a .274/.324/.441 slash line. That was enough for Riley to rank eighth among third basemen at the All-Star break. Riley had also started July on fire, hitting .317/.333/.585 with a 154 wRC+ (10 games).

The lack of clarity so far will be frustrating for fantasy managers. At this stage, no news is good news. A severe strain would probably be in the public domain. For now, Riley is one of the most obvious players to use an IL spot on. If we get news that he will miss a lengthy period, then that would change.

Adley Rutschman - C, Baltimore Orioles - 91% rostered

Rutschman has been sidelined since mid-June with an oblique strain. There hadn't been much information about his recovery until recently. It appears that Rutschman has been working out on the field and began playing catch this week.

On Friday, we received information that Rutschman is expected to go on a rehab assignment this coming week. It wasn't confirmed if he'll begin catching right away, so it's worth seeing what role Rutschman has while out on the rehab assignment. We should get more clarity in the coming days.

Adley Rutschman expected to join AAA Norfolk Tuesday #orioles

— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) July 18, 2025

Fantasy managers will be quick to point out that Rutschman didn't do much when healthy. In 68 games, he had eight homers, 20 RBI, 31 runs, and no stolen bases. Rutschman's .227/.319/.372 slash line is the worst of his career since debuting in 2022.

The reason why Rutschman is worth holding is due to the dearth of talent at the catcher position. While Rutschman hasn't shown much this year, he ranked second in 2023 and sixth in 2024 among catchers. There may be decent options on waivers, but none will carry the upside that Rutschman has.

Rutschman isn't a lock to return to pre-2025 form. But he had better underlying numbers than his stat line would suggest. If he can come close to being the sort of hitter we've seen before, Rutschman would be a top-10 catcher for the remainder of his season following his return.

On the Hot Seat

Chris Sale - SP, Atlanta Braves - 96% rostered

If we were to base this solely on numbers, then Sale is easily a must-hold. After 15 starts, he had a 5-4 W-L record, 2.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 114 Ks (89 1/3 innings). If it wasn't for a freakish injury, Sale would be in the running for back-to-back Cy Young Awards.

Sale suffered a fractured rib, and while he has begun playing catch already, being on the 60-day IL means we won't see Sale until August 19th, at the earliest.

Chris Sale played catch yesterday. He won’t be eligible to be activated until after Aug. 19. But he’s at least progressing toward his return to the Braves rotation

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) July 16, 2025

The concern is that with the Braves being so far off a playoff spot, they hold Sale back even more. It is, of course, promising that he is already working out. But Sale will still need to build up to pitching and will require a rehab stint. That could take us into late August.

We then need to hope Sale suffers no setbacks. He's no stranger to injuries in recent seasons. Sale hasn't made 30 starts in a year since 2017, and this is his fifth IL stint since he returned from Tommy John Surgery (TJS) in 2021.

Sale could be a free agent this offseason. The Braves will likely take up the club option to keep Sale in Atlanta next year. That means it would make more sense that they take things a bit more cautiously with Sale than perhaps they would if he were going to be a free agent this offseason.

If Sale does manage to return when eligible, or soon after, he's a certain hold. If we just get a month of him, we should still see Sale start five or six games. Even with fewer wins than hoped, Sale was and will be a top-20 starting pitcher when healthy.

If we get news about setbacks or the Braves shutting down Sale from his recovery, then we may not see Sale again in 2025. That doesn't look likely as of now. But given his injury history, it shouldn't be dismissed. The news coming out of Atlanta should be closely monitored.

Reader Requests

As always, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone you want to include on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or in the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover some requests each week.

Cole Ragans - SP, Kansas City Royals - 91% rostered

Like Sale, Ragans was a top-10 starting pitcher in drafts. Like Sale, Ragans is on the 60-day IL and can't return until August. Ragans could return in early August, but following Royal's GM J.J. Picollo's comments, it'll likely be later in August.

Royals' Opening Day starter Cole Ragans began throwing today after dealing with injuries (rotator cuff, groin) this season.

GM J.J. Picollo provided an update on Ragans: "It’s going to take a little bit of time ... We’re hopeful that it’s sometime in August." pic.twitter.com/wQDSYkhAW1

— Mark Poulose (@MarkPoulose) July 8, 2025

The next couple of weeks may determine when we see Ragans. If the Royals fall back further in the wildcard race, their urgency to get Ragans back disappears. That likely pushes back his return date. With this being Ragans' second IL stint of the season, that may not be such a bad idea.

The main reason fantasy managers have been wondering if Ragans is worth holding is his numbers. When he returns, Ragans will be looking to improve his 2-3 W-L record, 5.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 76 Ks (48 2/3 innings). His underlying numbers suggest he will improve them.

Ragans had a 2.47 xFIP, 2.53 SIERA, and .382 BABIP. Of the 242 pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings, only two have a bigger difference between their xFIP and ERA. The same is true for his SIERA and ERA. Only one of those pitchers has a higher BABIP than Ragans.

Despite his disappointing numbers, Ragans still put up elite strikeout numbers. His 36.4% K% ranks in the 98th percentile. Even though he's only made one start since May 17, Ragans still ranks tied-76th in total strikeouts.

That alone makes Ragans a worthwhile stash. If his luck improves when he returns, Ragans could end up as a top-10 starting pitcher over the final few weeks of the season.

Anthony Santander - OF, Toronto Blue Jays - 59% rostered

Santander has been a relatively cheap source of power in fantasy drafts for the last few years. That was no different this year. The problem is, Santander hasn't shown much power in 2025. Santander's first season in Toronto has been one of significant regression.

In 50 games, Santander had six home runs, 18 RBI, 14 runs, and no steals while hitting .179/.273/.304. In late May, Santander was placed on the IL with a shoulder injury after crashing into the outfield wall. Being on the 60-day IL, Santander isn't eligible to return until the last few days of July.

However, it doesn't seem like he'll be returning when first eligible. On Friday, the Blue Jays confirmed that Santander has yet to swing a bat and will be evaluated by Toronto's medical staff.

Anthony Santander (shoulder) has yet to resume swinging and is heading to Toronto this weekend to be evaluated by Blue Jays medical staff

— Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) July 18, 2025

Even if he is cleared to start ramping up towards a return, Santander still has more hurdles to overcome. It's difficult to see a scenario in which we see him playing for the Blue Jays before mid-August. That seems about the most optimistic we should be.

Given how badly Santander struggled before the injury, making a case for him to be worth holding isn't easy. If we compare his Statcast Profiles in 2024 and 2025, there's nothing to suggest Santander will produce numbers resembling last year, over the final few weeks of the season.

We can't blame the shoulder injury for his early-season struggles, seeing as it was caused by an impact with the outfield wall. There is a possibility that Santander has been able to work on things during his absence. But Santander has not been able to swing a bat and put anything into practice.

Provided you have an available IL spot, you can hold Santander and see what he does when he returns. But it should be a short leash, and we're still none the wiser as to when we can expect to see Santander back with the Blue Jays. I'd have no issue moving on in all but the deepest leagues.

Tyler Mahle - SP, Texas Rangers - 48% rostered

Mahle was in the middle of what appeared to be a career year before a shoulder injury halted things in early June. Being on the 60-day IL means we won't see Mahle until early August. Even that appears to be a bit optimistic.

We heard last week that Mahle will start throwing in a week. Provided that was the case and Mahle did start throwing in recent days, he still needs some bullpen sessions and some rehab starts. Mahle will probably need a few rehab outings before the Rangers activate him.

Injury notes from Bruce Bochy:

• Jon Gray next rehab start Sunday
• Tyler Mahle will start throwing in a week
• Joc Pederson 2-3 weeks from BP
• Sborz’ next step is being discussed

— Shawn McFarland (@McFarland_Shawn) July 11, 2025

If he comes through unscathed, Mahle will return to Texas with a 6-3 W-L record, 2.34 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 56 Ks (77 innings). Before the injury, he was someone primed for regression. In Mahle's 14 starts, he had a 4.36 xFIP and 4.63 SIERA. Both were similar to last year, when Mahle had a 4.97 ERA.

The lack of strikeouts will be a factor in his elevated xFIP and SIERA. It's also a reason why Mahle's fantasy value is limited. His 18.2% K% only ranked in the 21st percentile. With an 8.8% BB% (40th percentile), a lack of strikeouts will likely lead to problems.

Mahle does limit hard contact. His 37.8% hard-hit% ranks in the 72nd percentile. It was a similar story last year when Mahle had a 34.1% hard-hit%. That still didn't yield good results.

Mahle is worth holding onto in deeper leagues, assuming he does return in mid-August. That's provided we get a clearer timetable soon, and we find out that Mahle will be back in August. The only way he retains fantasy value is if his luck maintains, and that's not normally a recipe for success.

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