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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Sunday Night Football - Buccaneers vs Patriots. Here are his Week 4 SNF daily fantasy football advice and value plays.
Happy Sunday and welcome to Week 4 RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far, and hopefully, that trend continues through this afternoon and tonight with SNF. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football slate on October 3. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Tom Brady ($16,000 FD, $11,800 DK)
Are you surprised? The GOAT returns to New England for the first time since he left to join the Bucs. He's coming in guns blazin' with 1,087 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Patriots' pass defense is solid at a -8.3% DVOA, but there's no reason to think Tom won't be able to move the ball down the field. I could also see him sneaking one into the end zone as well. He's surely going to be popular, but for good reason.
Leonard Fournette ($13,000 FD, $10,200 DK)
Fournette will be my second option at the captain position tonight for a multitude of reasons. For starters, I expect the Bucs to take care of this one rather handily. I don't think Mac Jones will have enough firepower against the staunch Bucs defense to duel it out with Brady, so I'm not keen on having a ton of shares of him as captain. Lastly, the Bucs have a 14.4% DVOA against running backs and a 56.5% DVOA against running backs in the passing game. Fournette has 12 catches for 77 yards on 14 targets in the first three games. I also think he finds the end zone for the first time tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jakobi Meyers, Mike Evans
DFS Flex Plays
This slate is a tough one because of positional groups on both teams having a bunch "1A and 1B" guys. Take Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for example. While Godwin has edged Evans slightly, coming into this one with 19 receptions for 241 yards and three touchdowns, both he and Evans have seen 25 targets each through the first three weeks of the season. I like them both tonight, but I give the edge to Godwin due to him getting more work in the slot, and I feel like he's the "safer" play tonight while Evans has the higher ceiling. I'll likely be pretty close to 50/50 between them, though.
Jakobi Meyers
Jakobi Meyers seems to have emerged as the number one receiver for the Patriots this season. He's caught 19 passes on 29 targets this season, with 14 of those targets coming last week. He hasn't found the end zone yet this season, and it's unclear if he will tonight, but he's in a good matchup as the Bucs have a 20.3% DVOA against the 'WR1' position this season. I expect him to be targeted heavily as the Pats try to make a comeback late, racking up a bunch of garbage time points. I'll have the most shares of Myers as well as Kendrick Bourne, pairing them in my lineups with Mac Jones and Fournette as captain.
Other Flex Options: Antonio Brown, Buccaneers D/ST, Kendrick Bourne
DFS Value Plays
I mentioned previously how each team seems to have "1A and 1B" guys, and the tight end position in New England is no exception. Jonnu Smith has seen slightly more targets than Henry (16 to 13, respectively), while Henry has the edge in production and snaps. Henry has 10 receptions for 109 yards, but hasn't found the end zone yet on the year. The Bucs have a DVOA of 23.6% against the TE position, so I do like both Henry and Smith and will likely split shares of them tonight.
We stay at the tight end position for our other value play, with Cameron Brate likely taking over the receiving end of the tight end position while O.J. Howard steps up on blocking duties. I will have shares of Howard just in case he gets that one reception for six yards and a touchdown line, but Brate is the guy I'll be going with. Brate has run routes on 94.6% of his pass-play snaps, and saw five targets last week while Rob Gronkowski was dealing with his rib injury. The matchup isn't great, but Brady loves his tight ends, so I could see Brate having himself a night and hitting 2-3x value at his price.
Other Value Plays: Jonnu Smith, Ronald Jones II, Brandon Bolden
Happy Football Season, Everyone!
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