X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for SIERA (Week 7)

zac gallen fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. With just over a month of data, I think it's time to take a first look at one of my favorite advanced metrics; skill-interactive earned run average (SIERA).

SIERA is a great metric for capturing a pitcher's independent performance. It quantifies a pitcher's performance by trying to eliminate factors the pitcher can't control on their own. Fielding-independent pitching (FIP) is a stat that also attempts to do this, but unlike FIP, SIERA considers balls in play and adjusts for the type of ball in play. The formula can be found here for those who want to get into the nitty-gritty.

SIERA is a truer indicator of a pitcher's performance than ERA or FIP and can help predict future success or failure compared to a pitcher’s current ERA. It is one of a few great metrics for identifying potential buy-low and sell-high candidates, so this will hopefully be a helpful article for those of you taking a look!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

SIERA Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 7, 2023.

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

4-1, 2.53 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 2.47 SIERA

Zac Gallen showed in 2022 why fantasy baseball players had high hopes for him, and he has continued that success this season. He has led the hot Diamondbacks with a stellar 2.53 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 35.2% strikeout rate in seven starts. Further, his 2.47 SIERA backs up everything he has done. Let's dig into his success.

First, Gallen has mixed pitches well with a good location. His batted-ball profile is middle-of-the-road, but he has done a good job working in the top of the zone with his four-seamer and in the bottom of the zone with his other pitches. As such, he has frequently avoided damaging contact.

Gallen's curveball specifically has been a filthy pitch. It brings a 12-6 profile with an above-average drop and a 21.5% swinging-strike rate. He has gotten just a 52.4% contract rate on the pitch overall and has had great success using it as a chase pitch, with a swing rate outside the zone of 35.7% and just a 30.4% contact rate on those swings.

Overall, Gallen has continued to deliver as an above-average fantasy starter. His consistency has picked up right where it left off after 2022, and he should continue to see strikeout success thanks to his curveball. His ERA and SIERA align, further suggesting that he should continue to provide strong results.

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

2-5, 3.80 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.09 SIERA

Logan Webb did not have the cleanest start to the season, and while he has gotten things back on track, his  2-5 record and 3.80 ERA were not exactly what fantasy managers had hoped for. The good news is that his 3.09 SIERA is one of the lowest this season among qualified starters. Does this mean that fantasy managers should expect some positive regression?

Fortunately, there is one big identifiable outlier right off the bat for Webb; the high home run count. Webb's batted-ball profile is very similar to what it has been his entire career, with slightly harder contact allowed but on the ground with a 4.6-degree launch angle. However, Webb's fly-ball rate of 28.9% is higher than his career mark of 22.5% and his HR/FB rate of 22.9% is much higher than his career mark of 12.1%.

Webb is a sinker-heavy pitcher and his batted-ball results and SIERA suggest that he has done a successful job of that, even though the numbers have not fleshed out that way to this point. This should give fantasy managers hope that things will start to work out in Webb's favor as he pitches more innings. I don't think fantasy managers would necessarily be willing to trade Webb, but he can still be considered a buy-low candidate at this time.

 

SIERA Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 7, 2023.

Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays

1-2, 4.71 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 5.41 SIERA

Our duds this week will be a pair of rotation mates. Alek Manoah got off to a very slow start to the season and has a 4.71 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 18.1% strikeout rate to show for it. Even worse, his 5.41 SIERA is one of the highest among qualified starters and is a good deal higher than his ERA. What should fantasy managers make of this?

The thing that stands out to me is Manoah's poor pitch location. His fastballs and slider have been left up in the zone, leading to harder contact than he typically allows with a higher rate of line drives and fly balls. As I have mentioned in previous articles, allowing a combination of hard contact in the air is not a successful combination for pitchers, and Manoah's SIERA has reflected that.

Further, even though Manoah has managed a 2.12 ERA over his last three starts, he has still given up hard contact at an average of 89 MPH and has a 4.43 SIERA over those starts.

It is still early in the season with plenty of time left for Manoah to get things back on track. As such, I would look to buy low on him at this time, but I don't see a ton under the hood to give me confidence in him. The price would have to be pretty favorable for me to pull the trigger.

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays

4-2, 4.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5.20 SIERA

Chris Bassitt has found relatively more success than his teammate with a 4.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 19.6% strikeout rate. However, his 5.20 SIERA is only slightly better than Manoah's. Fantasy managers likely haven't been worrying given his overall results, but should they be?

This case is not as clear as Manoah's. Unlike Manoah, Bassitt has done a good job limiting hard contact this season, with an exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the 83rd and 82nd percentile of baseball. He has clearly gotten lucky to some extent, as his .217 BABIP is much lower than his career mark of .278. As such, it makes sense that his SIERA would be worse than his ERA, but it's hard to point to something that suggests he will regress.

Bassitt's SIERA is quite high and is higher than his ERA, but there isn't a blatant culprit. His Statcast profile in general is not great, but his batted-ball profile has been pretty good. He has definitely gotten lucky on balls in play, but there isn't anything to suggest that that good luck will stop. At this point, I am more confident in Bassitt producing decent results than Manoah.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kevin Huerter39 mins ago

Inactive For Wednesday's Game
Kevon Looney47 mins ago

Brandin Podziemski, Kevon Looney Starting On Wednesday
Scottie Barnes1 hour ago

To Play On Friday
Dante Exum1 hour ago

To Miss Three Months
Ja Morant1 hour ago

Should Play On Opening Night
2 hours ago

Moses Browns Signing With Knicks
Evan Engram2 hours ago

Limited To Start The Week
Freddie Freeman3 hours ago

Scratched From Game 4 Lineup
Christian Watson3 hours ago

Limited At Practice On Wednesday
Brian Robinson Jr.3 hours ago

Picks Up A DNP On Wednesday
Derek Carr3 hours ago

Has A Torn Oblique
Spencer Rattler3 hours ago

In Line To Start For The Saints In Week 6
Alvin Kamara4 hours ago

A DNP At Practice On Wednesday
Freddie Freeman4 hours ago

Starting, Miguel Rojas Out In Game 4
Rashid Shaheed4 hours ago

Listed As A DNP On Wednesday
Michael Pittman Jr.4 hours ago

Expected To Be Out Multiple Weeks
Matt Boldy5 hours ago

Will Be Available For Opening Night
Trey Sermon5 hours ago

Misses Practice On Wednesday
Juuse Saros5 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday's Season Opener
Michael Pittman Jr.5 hours ago

Picks Up A DNP On Wednesday
Joey Daccord5 hours ago

Inks Five-Year Extension With Kraken
George Kittle5 hours ago

Cleared To Play On Thursday
Linus Ullmark5 hours ago

Agrees To Four-Year Extension With Senators
Zack Moss5 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Bryan Rust5 hours ago

Out On Wednesday
Jaylen Warren5 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Erik Karlsson6 hours ago

Ready To Go Wednesday
Russell Wilson6 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Wednesday
Joseph Woll6 hours ago

Lands On Injured Reserve
Dameon Pierce6 hours ago

Expected To Play In Week 6
DeVonta Smith6 hours ago

Practicing On Wednesday
A.J. Brown6 hours ago

Seen Practicing On Wednesday
Devin Singletary6 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Malik Nabers6 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Josh Downs7 hours ago

Dealing With Toe Injury
Aidan O'Connell7 hours ago

Will Start In Week 6
Kurt Kitayama10 hours ago

Makes Season Debut At Black Desert Championship
Stephan Jaeger10 hours ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of Black Desert Championship
Patrick Rodgers10 hours ago

A Fade Candidate At Black Desert Championship
Patton Kizzire10 hours ago

On Fire Heading To Black Desert Course
Justin Lower13 hours ago

Is On A Consistent Run Going Into Black Desert Championship
Onyeka Okongwu13 hours ago

Remains Unavailable
Khris Middleton13 hours ago

Might Return To Action In Preseason
Bones Hyland13 hours ago

Battling Hip Soreness
Damion Lee13 hours ago

Avoids Serious Injury
Derrick Jones Jr.14 hours ago

"Fine" Despite Tuesday's Early Exit
Max Strus14 hours ago

Suffers Hip Injury In Preseason Game
Jordan Kyrou14 hours ago

Bags Two Goals As Blues Shock Kraken With Comeback
Dylan Guenther14 hours ago

Scores Twice In Utah's Inaugural Game
Connor Hellebuyck14 hours ago

Expected To Start On Wednesday
Kaiden Guhle14 hours ago

Ready For Opening Night
Conor Garland15 hours ago

Good To Go For Opening Night
Carter Verhaeghe15 hours ago

Lands Eight-Year, $56 Million Extension
Adam Boqvist15 hours ago

Exits Opening Night With Injury
Teoscar Hernández22 hours ago

Teoscar Hernandez Hits Grand Slam In NLDS Game 3 Loss
Fernando Tatis Jr.22 hours ago

Hits Fourth Homer Of Postseason Tuesday
Sean Manaea22 hours ago

Dominates In NLDS Game 3 Win
Malcolm Brogdon24 hours ago

Undergoes Surgery
Gary Trent Jr.1 day ago

Might Play On Thursday
Lonzo Ball1 day ago

Will Play During The Preseason
RJ Barrett1 day ago

Will Miss The Remainder Of The Preseason
Freddie Freeman1 day ago

In The Game 3 Lineup At Petco Park
Josh Giddey1 day ago

Available Tuesday
Kawhi Leonard1 day ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Mo Bamba1 day ago

Out Tuesday Versus Nets
Chris Paul1 day ago

Suiting Up Versus Orlando On Wednesday
Zach Collins1 day ago

Unavailable Wednesday Against Orlando
Xander Bogaerts1 day ago

In Game 3 Lineup Against Dodgers
Colorado Rockies1 day ago

Rockies Agree To One-Year Extension With Manager Bud Black
Jordan Binnington1 day ago

Takes On Kraken Tuesday
Philipp Grubauer1 day ago

Starts For Kraken On Tuesday
Nicolas Aube-Kubel1 day ago

Ruled Out For 3-6 Weeks
Jake Guentzel1 day ago

Expected To Play In Season Opener
Tomás Nosek1 day ago

Tomas Nosek Remains Week-To-Week
Sergei Bobrovsky1 day ago

Faces Bruins In Season Opener
Joonas Korpisalo1 day ago

To Start Season Opener
Rico Hoey2 days ago

Could Find Black Desert ChampionshIp Challenging
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Has Been OK But Not Great
Chris Kirk2 days ago

Getting Some Holes In At Black Desert
Harris English2 days ago

Still Trying To Improve Ranking In Utah
Chan Kim2 days ago

Needs A Few More Birdies In Utah
Maikel Garcia2 days ago

Collects Four Hits, Steal In ALDS Game 2 Win
Kerry Carpenter2 days ago

Hits Decisive ALDS Game 2 Homer
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Looks To Rediscover Putter Magic At Black Desert Championship
Michael Thorbjornsen2 days ago

Looks To Keep Momentum Going In Utah
Freddie Freeman2 days ago

Status For Game 3 Of NLDS Is Unclear
Patrick Fishburn2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Black Desert Championship
Keith Mitchell2 days ago

Looks To Shake Off Poor Sunday In Jackson At Black Desert Championship
Kodai Senga2 days ago

To Start Potential Game 5 For Mets?
Alex Pereira2 days ago

Remains Undefeated At Light Heavyweight
Khalil Rountree Jr.2 days ago

Gets TKO'd In UFC 307 Main Event
Ketlen Vieira2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 307
Roman Dolidze2 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kevin Holland2 days ago

Suffers Rib Injury In TKO Loss
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Struggles At Talladega But Leaves Above The Playoff Cut Line
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

Falls Short Of Victory By Inches At Talladega
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Despite Setbacks, Denny Hamlin Leaves Talladega With A Solid Top-10 Finish
Alex Bowman2 days ago

Survives Talladega With A Solid Points Cushion Against The Cutoff Line
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Pushes Through For A Talladega Top-10 Finish
NASCAR3 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Wins At Talladega To Salvage Lackluster Season
Joey Logano3 days ago

Triggers Big One At Talladega, Falls Below Cut Line
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Maintains Playoff Position Despite Talladega Crash
Austin Cindric3 days ago

Fights For The Win At Talladega Before Late-Race Crash
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Runs Decently But Crash Likely Eliminates Him From Round Of 8
Fernando Tatis Jr.3 days ago

Stays Red Hot, Collects Three Extra-Base Hits
Nick Castellanos3 days ago

Walks Off Mets In Game 2
Mark Vientos3 days ago

Hits Pair Of Homers In Game 2
Freddie Freeman3 days ago

Leaves Game Early After Feeling Renewed Pain In Ankle
Xander Bogaerts3 days ago

Leaves Game Early After Homering
Shohei Ohtani3 days ago

Hits Three-Run Shot In Game 1 Of NLDS
Alec Bohm3 days ago

Riding Pine In Game 2
José Aldo3 days ago

Jose Aldo Loses Split Decision At UFC 307
Mario Bautista3 days ago

Edges Out Decision Win At UFC 307
Kayla Harrison3 days ago

Picks Up Decision Win At UFC 307
Raquel Pennington3 days ago

Loses Title At UFC 307
Julianna Peña3 days ago

Julianna Pena Becomes New Champ At UFC 307
Zack Wheeler3 days ago

Dominant In Game 1
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

.'s Final Full-Time Talladega Race May End With A Favorable Result
Ricky Stenhouse Jr4 days ago

. Can Excel As A Top DFS Value Play With Upside For Talladega
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Looks To Sweep Talladega For The 2024 Cup Season
John Hunter Nemechek4 days ago

Is One Of The More Favorable DFS Value Options For Talladega
NASCAR4 days ago

B.J. McLeod Will Ride Around The Back, But Be A Solid Punt Play For Talladega
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Do Not Expect A Strong Result From Kyle Larson At Talladega
Brad Keselowski4 days ago

Is A Top DFS Recommendation For Talladega Lineups
Carson Hocevar4 days ago

Expect Carson Hocevar To Be A Pleasant DFS Surprise At Talladega
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Is Denny Hamlin Worth Rostering For Talladega Lineups?
NASCAR4 days ago

J.J. Yeley Too Slow to Be a Solid Underdog Play
Daniel Suarez4 days ago

Unlikely to Repeat Atlanta Triumph at Talladega
Clayton Kershaw4 days ago

Will Not Pitch Again In 2024
Alex Pereira5 days ago

Set For Third Light-Heavyweight Title Defense
Khalil Rountree Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Become UFC Middleweight Champion
Ketlen Vieira5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Roman Dolidze5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC 307
Kevin Holland5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Titans Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Harold Landry Fantasy Football IDP

IDP Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em for Week 6 - Streamers, Fades, Matchups for Defensive Players

In our IDP Rankings column this week, we considered one factor that can cloud the reading of fantasy rankings. Namely, we addressed how rankings can rob some fans of the nuisances they may need in specific leagues or situations. For example, if you're a team in need of a solid floor, sometimes going with a […]


Tank Bigsby - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Waiver Wire Express - Week 6 Lightning Round Including Tank Bigsby, Josh Downs, Darnell Mooney, Ladd McConkey, Caleb Williams, Alec Pierce

Week 5 brought plenty of highlights and heartbreak for fantasy teams as upsets and injuries continued to rattle the finest of organized plans. There are gems to be unearthed amidst the chaos, but you must identify your team's needs and know where to look. Stay one step ahead of the curve with our fantasy football […]


Houston Texans Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Derek Stingley Fantasy Football IDP

Top Fantasy Football D/ST Rankings (Weeks 6, 7, 8, 9) - Defense Streamers and Starts

Welcome, RotoBallers, to our fantasy football D/ST streamers and starts for Weeks 6, 7, 8, 9 -- looking at the next four weeks, and identifying the best D/ST matchups. Every week, I'll go through the best fantasy defensive options for the next four weeks. So, if you like to stream defenses or plan your defenses out in […]


Nico Collins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football WR Injury Reports: Week 6 Updates For Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, Malik Nabers, Christian Watson, Khalil Shakir

Fantasy football's top two wide receivers by weekly average should return to the field this week (yay!). The season's fourth- and fifth-best wideouts won't be on the field (boo!). To keep close tabs on all of the news across the NFL, make sure to favorite or bookmark the fantasy football player news page. Also, download […]


Jaymyr Gibbs - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

Fantasy Football Matchups We Love - Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 6 Include Jordan Love, Zach Ertz, Terry McLaurin, Dak Prescott, Breece Hall, more

Finally, the offensive explosion we have been waiting for manifested itself in Week 5. Certain games such as Bengals/Ravens or Jaguars/Colts provided a lot of fantasy fun. It seems as though teams have finally hit their stride as players and coaches get acclimated to the regular season. In an age where it is uncommon for […]


Tyler Lockett - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

PrizePicks NFL DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for 49ers vs. Seahawks Thursday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome to our PrizePicks NFL DFS prop picks for Week 6 Thursday Night Football -- 49ers vs. Seahawks! The 2024 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. Our partners at PrizePicks offer some […]


Travis Etienne Jr. fantasy football rankings draft sleepers running backs

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Week 6 Updates for Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne Jr., Zack Moss, Aaron Jones, Jaylen Warren, Cordarrelle Patterson

Below is our fantasy football injuries report for running backs in Week 6, as of October 9. The injury statuses for various NFL running backs are up in the air for Week 6, including Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne Jr., Zack Moss, and Aaron Jones. As the fantasy football season continues, every decision, transaction, and lineup […]


Rome Odunze - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injuries

Fantasy Football Trade Targets - Buy/Sell For Week 6 Including Rico Dowdle, Christian Kirk, Rome Odunze, Bijan Robinson

I wanted to start by celebrating the number of high-scoring games we got this past week, but I was surprised to learn that more contests hit the over in Week 4. Regardless, Week 5 did not disappoint, and many fantasy superstars reminded us why they were drafted so highly. We can only hope the trend […]


Tucker Kraft - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for Kirk Cousins, Kareem Hunt, Tucker Kraft, Tank Bigsby, Darnell Mooney

Week 5 of the NFL is behind us, and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the fifth week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players? Every week, I'll be looking at five NFL players whose numbers from […]


Zay Flowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Smash Starts for Week 6 Include Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, Chris Godwin, Jalen Tolbert

Week 5 was phenomenal. From incredible shootouts to last-second wins and even big upsets, it was hands down the best week so far. As we head toward a third of the season under our belts, we can only hope that there are more weeks like this.  In this article, I will highlight four wide receivers […]


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Matchups to Target, Avoid (Week 6) - Offensive Line Champs and Chumps

We finally witnessed some offensive football in Week 5 of the NFL season. Nine different teams had 30 or more points. Five of those games went for over 35. We also saw nine different quarterbacks exceed 300 passing yards. The previous high was five. Despite the strong offensive production, offensive lines across the NFL continue […]


TJ Watt - IDP, Pittsburgh Steelers, DST, Defense, Fantasy Football Def

Week 6 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2024 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to our Week 6 fantasy football defense streamers and D/ST rankings for the 2024 fantasy football season. Each week, I'll go through the best and worst fantasy defenses and rank them No. 1 through No. 32. With four teams on bye in Week 6 (Vikings, Dolphins, Rams, and Chiefs), there will be 28 […]


Tyrone Tracy - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 6

Week 5 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead. Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if […]