X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for SIERA (Week 7)

zac gallen fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. With just over a month of data, I think it's time to take a first look at one of my favorite advanced metrics; skill-interactive earned run average (SIERA).

SIERA is a great metric for capturing a pitcher's independent performance. It quantifies a pitcher's performance by trying to eliminate factors the pitcher can't control on their own. Fielding-independent pitching (FIP) is a stat that also attempts to do this, but unlike FIP, SIERA considers balls in play and adjusts for the type of ball in play. The formula can be found here for those who want to get into the nitty-gritty.

SIERA is a truer indicator of a pitcher's performance than ERA or FIP and can help predict future success or failure compared to a pitcher’s current ERA. It is one of a few great metrics for identifying potential buy-low and sell-high candidates, so this will hopefully be a helpful article for those of you taking a look!

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association including Baseball Writer of the Year, Football Writers of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year and many more! Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

SIERA Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 7, 2023.

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

4-1, 2.53 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 2.47 SIERA

Zac Gallen showed in 2022 why fantasy baseball players had high hopes for him, and he has continued that success this season. He has led the hot Diamondbacks with a stellar 2.53 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 35.2% strikeout rate in seven starts. Further, his 2.47 SIERA backs up everything he has done. Let's dig into his success.

First, Gallen has mixed pitches well with a good location. His batted-ball profile is middle-of-the-road, but he has done a good job working in the top of the zone with his four-seamer and in the bottom of the zone with his other pitches. As such, he has frequently avoided damaging contact.

Gallen's curveball specifically has been a filthy pitch. It brings a 12-6 profile with an above-average drop and a 21.5% swinging-strike rate. He has gotten just a 52.4% contract rate on the pitch overall and has had great success using it as a chase pitch, with a swing rate outside the zone of 35.7% and just a 30.4% contact rate on those swings.

Overall, Gallen has continued to deliver as an above-average fantasy starter. His consistency has picked up right where it left off after 2022, and he should continue to see strikeout success thanks to his curveball. His ERA and SIERA align, further suggesting that he should continue to provide strong results.

Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

2-5, 3.80 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.09 SIERA

Logan Webb did not have the cleanest start to the season, and while he has gotten things back on track, his  2-5 record and 3.80 ERA were not exactly what fantasy managers had hoped for. The good news is that his 3.09 SIERA is one of the lowest this season among qualified starters. Does this mean that fantasy managers should expect some positive regression?

Fortunately, there is one big identifiable outlier right off the bat for Webb; the high home run count. Webb's batted-ball profile is very similar to what it has been his entire career, with slightly harder contact allowed but on the ground with a 4.6-degree launch angle. However, Webb's fly-ball rate of 28.9% is higher than his career mark of 22.5% and his HR/FB rate of 22.9% is much higher than his career mark of 12.1%.

Webb is a sinker-heavy pitcher and his batted-ball results and SIERA suggest that he has done a successful job of that, even though the numbers have not fleshed out that way to this point. This should give fantasy managers hope that things will start to work out in Webb's favor as he pitches more innings. I don't think fantasy managers would necessarily be willing to trade Webb, but he can still be considered a buy-low candidate at this time.

 

SIERA Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 7, 2023.

Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays

1-2, 4.71 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 5.41 SIERA

Our duds this week will be a pair of rotation mates. Alek Manoah got off to a very slow start to the season and has a 4.71 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 18.1% strikeout rate to show for it. Even worse, his 5.41 SIERA is one of the highest among qualified starters and is a good deal higher than his ERA. What should fantasy managers make of this?

The thing that stands out to me is Manoah's poor pitch location. His fastballs and slider have been left up in the zone, leading to harder contact than he typically allows with a higher rate of line drives and fly balls. As I have mentioned in previous articles, allowing a combination of hard contact in the air is not a successful combination for pitchers, and Manoah's SIERA has reflected that.

Further, even though Manoah has managed a 2.12 ERA over his last three starts, he has still given up hard contact at an average of 89 MPH and has a 4.43 SIERA over those starts.

It is still early in the season with plenty of time left for Manoah to get things back on track. As such, I would look to buy low on him at this time, but I don't see a ton under the hood to give me confidence in him. The price would have to be pretty favorable for me to pull the trigger.

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays

4-2, 4.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 5.20 SIERA

Chris Bassitt has found relatively more success than his teammate with a 4.28 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 19.6% strikeout rate. However, his 5.20 SIERA is only slightly better than Manoah's. Fantasy managers likely haven't been worrying given his overall results, but should they be?

This case is not as clear as Manoah's. Unlike Manoah, Bassitt has done a good job limiting hard contact this season, with an exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the 83rd and 82nd percentile of baseball. He has clearly gotten lucky to some extent, as his .217 BABIP is much lower than his career mark of .278. As such, it makes sense that his SIERA would be worse than his ERA, but it's hard to point to something that suggests he will regress.

Bassitt's SIERA is quite high and is higher than his ERA, but there isn't a blatant culprit. His Statcast profile in general is not great, but his batted-ball profile has been pretty good. He has definitely gotten lucky on balls in play, but there isn't anything to suggest that that good luck will stop. At this point, I am more confident in Bassitt producing decent results than Manoah.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jaylen Waddle35 mins ago

Clears Concussion Protocol
Saquon Barkley45 mins ago

To Do Individual Work Thursday
Pablo LĂłpez56 mins ago

Pablo Lopez To Start Game 1 Of Wild-Card Series
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.2 hours ago

Returns For Diamondbacks
Gus Edwards3 hours ago

No Longer In Concussion Protocol
Aaron Jones4 hours ago

Trending Toward Playing, May Be On A Snap Count
Christian Watson4 hours ago

Likely To Play, May Be Limited
David Montgomery4 hours ago

Expected To Play Thursday Night
John Klingberg5 hours ago

Forced To Exit Early Wednesday
Cole Perfetti5 hours ago

Under Evaluation After Taking Hit To The Head
Filip Zadina5 hours ago

Exits With Injury Wednesday
Mike Matheson5 hours ago

Misses Wednesday's Preseason Game With Injury
Roope Hintz6 hours ago

Unavailable Due To An Upper-Body Injury
Zach Whitecloud6 hours ago

Nursing Unspecified Injury
Christian Watson15 hours ago

Expected To Play Thursday Night
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.15 hours ago

Could Return Thursday
Aaron Nola15 hours ago

Won't Pitch Again In Regular Season
Ronald Acuña Jr.15 hours ago

Ronald Acuna Jr. Swipes 70th Bag Wednesday
Max Scherzer17 hours ago

Throws Light Bullpen
Derek Carr18 hours ago

No Practice For Derek Carr On Wednesday
Jerry Jeudy18 hours ago

Limited With Knee Injury
Golden State Warriors18 hours ago

Rudy Gay Signs Deal With Warriors
18 hours ago

Kobe Brown Healthy To Begin Training Camp
Bryce Young18 hours ago

On Track To Start In Week 4
Victor Oladipo18 hours ago

Won't Be Ready For Training Camp
Jerome Ford18 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Puka Nacua18 hours ago

Still Dealing With Oblique Injury
Miami Heat18 hours ago

R.J. Hampton Joins Heat On Two-Way Deal
James Conner18 hours ago

Dealing With Back Injury
Joe Burrow18 hours ago

Listed As Full Practice Participant
Kawhi Leonard18 hours ago

Paul George Healthy For Training Camp
Cooper Kupp19 hours ago

Rams Hoping Cooper Kupp Can Return In Week 5
Austin Ekeler19 hours ago

Returns To Practice
Christian Watson19 hours ago

Is Questionable For TNF
Corey Seager19 hours ago

To Play On Wednesday
Aaron Jones19 hours ago

Officially Questionable For TNF
Chas McCormick19 hours ago

Out Of The Lineup On Wednesday
David Montgomery19 hours ago

Listed As Questionable Ahead Of TNF
Brandon Aiyuk20 hours ago

Logs A Limited Practice On Wednesday
Deebo Samuel20 hours ago

Does Not Practice Wednesday
Joel Edmundson21 hours ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Hand Injury
Jordan Kyrou21 hours ago

Misses Practice Wednesday
Justin Faulk21 hours ago

Expected To Return To Practice Thursday
Josh Norris21 hours ago

Inching Towards Return
Ryan Mountcastle21 hours ago

Back From Injured List
Jakob Pelletier21 hours ago

To Undergo Shoulder Surgery
Randy Arozarena21 hours ago

Back In Rays Lineup
Nassir Little22 hours ago

Keon Johnson Shipped To Suns
Dylan Gambrell22 hours ago

Suffers Concussion
Yandy DĂ­az22 hours ago

Yandy Diaz Still Out Wednesday
Mikael Backlund22 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Extension With Flames
Starling Marte22 hours ago

Won't Play Again This Year
Grayson Allen22 hours ago

Headed To Phoenix
Jrue Holiday22 hours ago

Moved To Portland In Massive Swap
Jusuf Nurkic22 hours ago

Joining Suns In Three-Team Deal
Deandre Ayton23 hours ago

Portland Obtains Deandre Ayton In Huge Trade
Damian Lillard23 hours ago

Bucks Acquiring Damian Lillard In Blockbuster Trade
Luis Arraez24 hours ago

Remains Out For Game 1 Of Twin Bill Wednesday
Blake Wheeler1 day ago

Makes Scoring Debut For Rangers
Alex DeBrincat1 day ago

Debuts For Red Wings With Two Assists
Kasperi Kapanen1 day ago

Battling Minor Upper-Body Injury
Justin Faulk1 day ago

Exits Preseason Contest With Injury
Cam Atkinson1 day ago

Dealing With A Lower-Body Problem
Joel Edmundson1 day ago

In Danger Of Missing Start Of Season
Chas McCormick2 days ago

Injured Tuesday
Tanner Scott2 days ago

Goes On Paternity List
Corey Seager2 days ago

Says He's Fine After Suffering Forearm Bruise
Corey Seager2 days ago

Exits Early With Right Forearm Contusion
Damian Lillard2 days ago

Joining Heat Becoming "Unlikely"
Scottie Barnes2 days ago

"Not Available" In Trade Talks
Buddy Hield2 days ago

Pacers Want To Keep Buddy Hield
Chris Paul2 days ago

Steve Kerr Still Undecided On Chris Paul's Role
Rhys Hoskins2 days ago

Likely Won't Play This Year
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Will Remain With Stewart-Haas Racing In 2024
Los Angeles Clippers2 days ago

Clippers, Brodric Thomas Agree To Exhibit 10 Deal
Tyler Herro2 days ago

Jazz, Bulls, Hornets, Nets All Interested In Tyler Herro
MLB2 days ago

Mets-Marlins Postponed On Tuesday
Ben Simmons2 days ago

Is '100 Percent Healthy' Entering Training Camp
2 days ago

Dereck Lively II Will Get The Chance To Start
Matt Ryan2 days ago

Timberwolves Ink Matt Ryan To Two-Way Deal
Garrett Mitchell2 days ago

Unlikely To Be Activated
Carlos Correa2 days ago

Could Return This Weekend
Torey Krug2 days ago

Expects To Be Ready For Season Opener
Filip Chytil2 days ago

Day-To-Day With Upper-Body Injury
Minnesota Timberwolves3 days ago

Trevor Keels Signs With Timberwolves
Rafael Fiziev3 days ago

Suffers Knee Injury To Cut Main Event Short
Rafael Fiziev3 days ago

Mateusz Gamrot Victorious After Rafael Fiziev Suffers Knee Injury
Michelle Waterson-Gomez3 days ago

Dominated In TKO Loss
AJ Fletcher3 days ago

Drops To 1-3 In The UFC
AJ Fletcher3 days ago

Bryan Battle Submits AJ Fletcher For Second Straight Finishing Win
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Speeding Penalty Costs Him Big At Texas
William Byron3 days ago

Earns Sixth Win Of Season At Texas
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Secures Third Straight Top-Five Finish At Texas
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Late Wreck Ruins Tyler Reddick's Race At Texas
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Delivers Big Value At Texas
Kyle Busch3 days ago

Championship Hopes Take Big Hit After Texas Wreck
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Overcomes Throttle Issue To Finish Second At Texas
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace "Gave it Away" At Texas, Finishes Third
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Has Another Strong Points Day At Texas
Kyle Larson3 days ago

On Playoff Hot Seat After Wrecking At Texas
Ricardo Ramos4 days ago

Submitted Early At UFC Vegas 79
Charles Jourdain4 days ago

Extends Win Streak To Two
Marina Rodriguez4 days ago

Scores One-Sided TKO Win At UFC Vegas 79
Dan Ige4 days ago

Falls Short Against Another Top-10 Opponent
Bryce Mitchell4 days ago

Returns To Win Column At UFC Vegas 79
Brad Keselowski4 days ago

Feels Good About His Car at Texas
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

a Very Strong Option at Texas
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Pegged as Favorite to Win at Texas
Carson Hocevar5 days ago

Looks Impressive Again at Texas
Zane Smith5 days ago

Slow In Practice and Qualifying at Texas
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

in Downgraded Equipment for Texas
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Will Start 25th At Texas
Chase Briscoe5 days ago

The Top Value Play On Sunday At Texas
Ricky Stenhouse Jr5 days ago

.'s Struggles At Texas To Continue This Weekend
Joey Logano5 days ago

Makes For A Nice Bounce Back Play At Texas
Mateusz Gamrot6 days ago

Seeking Victory In Seventh UFC Appearance
Rafael Fiziev6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Michelle Waterson-Gomez6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP