X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xwOBA (Week 3)

Statcast batter risers and fallers for week 3 of the 2019 MLB season, sorted by xwOBA. Pierre Camus looks at hitters who could be buys or sells according to advanced sabermetrics.

Welcome back to our weekly Statcast Hitter Analysis series. Each week, I will select a different metric to evaluate surprising names at the top and bottom of the Statcast Leaderboards. Many fantasy baseball owners are starting to see the value of MLB's Statcast advanced stats in order to help identify potential risers and sleepers. Just as we do for pitchers, this weekly series will examine a handful of hitters who are performing surprisingly well or poorly according to sabermetrics.

One statistic that isn't likely to resonate with casual baseball fans, but fantasy owners and sabermetricians value greatly, is xwOBA. The x, you may know, stands for "expected" and looks at how batters should be performing according to Statcast. Not many fantasy leagues use on-base average to reward owners but it can foretell of a player's potential to score runs, steal bases, or maintain playing time. I won't tell you that Mike Trout is at the top of the list and don't need to mention Daniel Vogelbach's hot start again. Instead, we'll dig up some names of interest that you might not expect.

Aside from simply finding out who is performing well for their teams, fantasy owners can utilize this data to find risers and fallers to identify as buy, sell, add or drop possibilities. Connelly Doan examined the pitcher side of the leaderboard for this metric just last week. If you want to know who the xwOBA leaders from 2018 were, we've got that right here. Now, let's get into the hitters who are standing out in this regard as we head into Week 3 of the MLB season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Surprising Chart Toppers

All stats current as of April 14, 2019 and display leaders among hitters with at least 25 PA.

 

Gary Sanchez (C, NYY) .544 xwOBA

If this were a piece on Barrels or Exit Velocity, Sanchez wouldn't make the list. It's hardly shocking that he can rake when in the lineup. The headline here is that Sanchez is getting on base without depending solely on the long ball. Don't get it twisted - the 4.4% walk rate is still bad and a .268 batting average isn't astounding, but it's a lot better than last year's .186. Sanchez isn't just performing up to his ADP, he's underperforming his expected numbers. A .439 wOBA is 105 points behind the xwOBA, so we could be seeing better numbers.

That assumes he gets back on the field soon, of course. Sanchez just hit the Injured List with a calf strain, so now his owners are going from ecstatic to panicked as they must find a catcher that somehow is capable of producing fantasy value over the next two weeks. It seems getting injured is the new Yankee Way.

 

Franmil Reyes (OF, SD) .494 xwOBA

Reyes has mostly been a bust in the first two weeks of 2019, but he should be doing far better. Reyes is the single biggest underachiever, with a league-leading differential of -.187 on his xwOBA-wOBA. His plate discipline has made an astonishing turnaround, with a 4.5% K-BB% after last year's 19.7% K-BB%.

Reyes has found himself in the two-hole despite a low batting average because of his ability to draw walks and induce long counts as he did against Zack Greinke on a couple of occasions Sunday afternoon. Reyes may have been ditched by some impatient fantasy owners already, but the numbers show that he could be a player to add or buy-low in the coming week before positive regression comes.

 

Niko Goodrum (1B/2B/3B/SS/OF, DET) .482 xwOBA

If you own Goodrum, it's likely because he qualifies at almost every position and you like the flexibility. You should also like the fact he's slashing .293/.420/.512 and has drawn nine walks compared to 10 strikeouts in 13 games. The Tigers have proven to be more competitive than we expected and that's without Miggy getting hot yet (he will eventually, right?).

Goodrum is a sneaky value and realistically belongs on rosters in all leagues with 12 or more teams. The power and speed combo haven't shown up just yet but he could definitely put together a 20-15 season after last year's 16-HR, 12-SB output in 492 plate appearances as a utility player.

 

Colin Moran (3B, PIT) .448 xwOBA

This might seem irrelevant for fantasy purposes at first glance, but what if I told you that his main competition for playing time, Jung Ho Kang, is in the bottom 10 of this very metric? Kang is currently 285 out of 294 qualified batters with a .189 xwOBA, whereas Moran ranks 16th, just ahead of Ronald Acuna and Christian Yelich. Yes, small sample size, yadda yadda. The point is that Moran is vastly outperforming Kang so far and might force the Bucs into giving him the gig full-time if it keeps up.

Moran has always posted strong walk rates and can hit for average but his power is lacking compared to his peers at the hot corner. Moran hit 11 HR in 144 games last year and posted a ground ball rate 15% higher than his fly ball rate. He's improved in that area as well as his hard hit rate so far, but it remains to be seen whether it's sustainable. For now, Moran can be a speculative add in NL-only or deep points leagues. The bigger news is that Kang's once-promising return is at a halt.

 

Alarming Bottom Dwellers

All stats current as of April 14, 2019 and display leaders among hitters with at least 25 PA.

 

Matt Kemp (OF, CIN) .172 xwOBA

Not many fantasy owners kept faith in Kemp being an asset in 2019. He was the 300th overall pick according to NFBC preseason data, meaning he wasn't even drafted in many 10 and 12-team leagues. That was a good choice. Kemp is off to a bad start in his new city despite a more favorable park for right-handed hitters. GABP ranked #1 in HR Park Factor for righties, yet Kemp has just one bomb this season.

He's also shown a great aversion to drawing walks, declining to take a single free pass over his first 37 PA. His walk rate had rebounded to 7.1% last year, so it's not as if this is something we should have seen coming. His second-half decline last year could have been a sign but it's not as if he fell off a cliff either. Kemp could find his playing time decrease if things don't correct themselves soon, but that probably means more for the other players o Cincy's roster than Kemp himself.

 

Garrett Hampson (2B, COL) .177 xwOBA

From sleeper to bust in the blink of any eye. Such is life for a hyped-up rookie in a seemingly great situation. The door was wide open for Hampson to contribute once Daniel Murphy and Ryan McMahon both landed on the IL. Instead, he's gotten off to a .170/.184/.234 slash line with no steals.

The biggest concern is plate discipline naturally, as he's struck out 14 times compared to a single walk in 47 at-bats. Hampson hasn't found a way to get on base, which doesn't bode well for his ability to contribute in roto leagues under a conservative skipper. The Rockies are 27th in stolen base attempts per game at 0.40 and aren't likely to let Hampson loose until their bats start producing more quality contact.

If there's a silver lining, it's that Hampson does seem to be warming up as the season progresses. He singled Sunday to put together a modest five-game hitting streak. That's only eight hits in his last 21 at-bats, seven of which were singles, but at least it's something.

 

Jose Peraza (2B/SS, CIN) .229 xwOBA

Peraza hasn't taken a walk yet this year in 42 plate appearances. That's a problem for a guy who's also hitting .178 and relies on stolen base opportunities to provide fantasy value. He's not the only Reds player on the bottom of this list: Jose Iglesias, Yasiel Puig, and Scott Schebler all fall outside the top 200 batters for xwOBA in the early going.

The team has struggled with injuries, suspensions and cold bats in key places to conspire against fantasy owners who invested in what should have been a potent offense. They've picked up the pace lately, scoring exactly five runs in five of the last seven games, and throwing in a 14-run outburst in the middle (against the Marlins granted, but it still counts). Peraza hasn't been part of that resurgence, not picking up a hit since last Tuesday and going 0-for-4 on Sunday.

It may be too early to panic, but looking long-term there could be reason for concern. If Scooter Gennett comes back by mid-May, Nick Senzel finally gets healthy, and Derek Dietrich keeps hitting, Peraza could find himself in a crunch for playing time if he's still hovering around the Mendoza line. There won't be a market for him, so he's at best a player to stash for now. Don't hesitate to cut bait if he doesn't snap out of it soon though.

More Statcast & Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
MarShawn Lloyd

Vying for RB2 Role
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF