X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

xBA-BA Leaders - Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds (Week 6)

Statcast batter risers and fallers for week 6 of the 2019 MLB season, sorted by xBA - BA (batting average). Pierre Camus looks at hitters who could be buys or sells according to advanced sabermetrics.

This week, we're going back to the basics to look at batting average. Of course, with Statcast we are able to dig deeper than that and look at how hitters are either underperforming or overperforming by comparing their averages to expected stats, or xBA in this case.

Expected stats for an all-encompassing stat like average will analyze how a hitter should be performing based on a variety of factors such as exit velocity, launch angle, plate discipline and more. Keep in mind that xstats are not meant to be predictive, so while those who are seeing the biggest differences between expectation and performance certainly could be risers or fallers in the near future, it's not guaranteed.

As always, I will omit the names of players that will do no good to analyze to the typical fantasy owner. Instead, I will mention some surprising players who might be worth your attention on the waiver wire, trade block, or chopping block. Now, let's see who could be due for regression, either positive or negative, as we head to Week 6 of the MLB season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

xBA Overachievers

These players are overperforming on their xBA and represent the biggest positive differences. They could see negative regression and a decrease in batting average in the near future. All stats current as of May 5, 2019 and display leaders among hitters with at least 50 Plate Appearances (PA).

The top 10 contains a slew of catchers, many of whom are part-timers and not fantasy-relevant outside of two-catcher leagues (which should be banned btw). Mitch Garver leads the pack with a +.118 differential, while Robinson Chirinos comes in second as the only other player over .100 points in the positive differential category. Omar Narvaez (.074) should be starting in most 12+ team leagues but Tony Wolters (+.073) and James McCann (+.071) just don't have enough pop to warrant consideration.

 

Tyler White (1B, HOU)

.283 BA-.207 xBA= +.076 difference

I recently highlighted White in an article proclaiming Yordan Alvarez as an AL Rookie of the Year candidate, even though he hasn't been called up yet. This is mostly predicated on the fact that White has provided zero power at the DH spot for Houston, whereas Alvarez is tearing the cover off the ball in Triple-A Round Rock. White's .281 average is decent enough but now we see that it's mostly a mirage too. He should be batting closer to the Mendoza line and has a .293 xwOBA.

The team would prefer to keep White around and it's a problem that Alvarez isn't on the 40-man roster right now, so a move isn't imminent. That said, White has no business being on fantasy rosters when he doesn't have a single homer and just two RBI despite playing in a favorable park with a stacked lineup. Ignore White but also keep an eye on Alvarez down the stretch in case the team tires of White's non-productivity.

 

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS, SD)

.300 BA-.225 xBA= +.075 difference

The rookie sensation made a splash early before an unfortunate hamstring strain landed him on the IL. He's batting .300 with six homers, six steals, and flashy defense to boot. What's not to love? Well, Statcast doesn't care much for his exit velocity that ranks in the 30th percentile or his .326 xwOBA. Perhaps he should get the benefit of the doubt since an elite Sprint Speed in the 94th percentile can help him leg out some weak grounders and add value through the basepaths.

It should be a bit worrisome that there is such a large gap between the xBA and actual average though. You should be holding Tatis anywhere he's owned based on his power/speed potential, so don't worry too much even if he does wind up hitting closer to .250 by year's end. His sell-high window is probably closed anyway now that he's hurt.

 

Michael Chavis (2B/3B, BOS)

.354 BA-.281 xBA= +.073 difference

Now that the Vlad Jr. hype is dying down a bit, Chavis is the latest toast of Prospect Town. He's off to a blazing start, slashing .333/.460/.725 with a .439 xwOBA that is 10th-highest in all of baseball. He's already smashed six HR in 15 games and doesn't appear ready to head back to the minors any time soon. Now, time for some cold water.

He isn't going to hit .354 forever and it's a safe bet he won't end up with 50 home runs either. Chavis will fall down closer to the .300 mark, if not below it, at some point this season. His batting average fluctuated quite a bit throughout his brief minor league career. He did hit .303 in 33 Double-A games last year and has really just taken off in the last two years. Even if he matches his xBA of .281, Chavis should be held unless someone is willing to pay for his peak performance price and exchange a struggling star player like some of the sluggers we'll mention below.

 

xBA Underachievers

These players are underperforming on their xBA and represent the biggest negative differences. They could see positive regression and an increase in batting average in the near future. All stats current as of May 5, 2019 and display leaders among hitters with at least 50 Plate Appearances (PA).

At the bottom of the stat sheet, we see that some household names (Starling Marte, Jesus Aguilar, Kendrys Morales) that we already knew were struggling. For some reason, Jordy Mercer insists on making an appearance again (I'm not buying it Jordy!) and it appears Gary Sanchez (-.060) should be doing even better than he is! But who are the real buy-low candidates according to xBA?

 

Niko Goodrum (1B/2B/3B/SS/OF, DET)

.226 BA-.294 xBA= -.068 difference

The Swiss Army Knife of fantasy leagues, Goodrum should be universally owned just because he's the only bench player you'll need. Goodrum doesn't just help at every position, he contributes in pretty much every category too. Goodrum has three HR, three SB, 13 R, 11 RBI so far but is being held back by a .224 average. The good news - he's hitting the ball well enough that he deserves a better fate. His .294 xBA is 43rd among qualified hitters, leaving a huge gap from his performance. Goodrum is above league average is every major Statcast category, including Sprint Speed and has an xSLG in the 85th percentile. The Tigers aren't an appealing lineup to buy into but Goodrum is the exception.

 

Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX)

.232 BA-.298 xBA= -.066 difference

One of my favorite preseason sleepers, Mazara hasn't paid dividends just yet. His power numbers are fairly good at six HR, 21 RBI, but a .233 average is leaving owners wanting more. It could be coming soon, as Mazara ranks eighth in negative differential from xBA-BA. His 39.6% hard-hit rate is down a bit from last year but his Barrel rate is up thanks to an increased launch angle. Mazara is capable of a homer binge any time, especially playing in Globe Life Park for one last season, which ranked 10th in HR Park Factor by handedness last year.

If buying into Mazara, it won't be for average anyway; he's consistently hit between the .250-.260 xBA range in his first three seasons. Mazara is also underperforming on his xSLG by 73 points and should see a turnaround soon. If you need a boost in the power department, he's one to target now.

 

Franmil Reyes (OF, SD)

.253 BA-.317 xBA= -.064 difference

If the 6'5" Dominican outfielder hadn't caught your eye yet, maybe his mammoth homer on Sunday measuring 447 feet did the trick. He's up to nine HR on the season and seems to have earned a near-daily spot in the Padres lineup. We know he's got the power like Snap but what about the average?

Reyes has been in the position all season of underperforming his expected stats, with a 64 point difference in batting average, ranking 10th-highest, and a 113 point difference in slugging, ranking 13th-highest. Reyes ranks in the 95th percentile or higher in exit velocity, Barrel%, xwOBACON, xSLG, and xBA. The opportunity to snag Reyes from an unwitting opponent may no longer be present but it's worth trying because Reyes could very well be this year's Jesus Aguilar.

More Statcast & Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Brock Purdy

"a Long Shot" to Play on Sunday
Aaron Rodgers

Dealing With Back Tightness
Dallas Goedert

Questionable for Week 2 at Chiefs
Anthony Rizzo

Retires
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Jadeveon Clowney

Visiting With the Cowboys on Wednesday
Masyn Winn

Will Require Offseason Knee Surgery
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Strikes Out 12, Earns 12th Win on Tuesday
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Christian Watson

Agrees to One-Year Contract Extension
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Will Smith

Returns to Dodgers Lineup on Tuesday
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
Kyle Stowers

Dealing With Strained Side
Kyle Tucker

Placed on Injured List With Calf Strain
Jauan Jennings

Considered Day-to-Day, has a Chance to Play in Week 2
Jalen Carter

Receives One-Game Suspension, Will be Eligible for Week 2
Bo Bichette

Goes on Injured List With Knee Sprain
George Kittle

Placed on Injured Reserve
Tyreek Hill

Accused of Domestic Violence
Jauan Jennings

Avoids Serious Shoulder Injury
Garrett Crochet

Shuts Out the Athletics
Royce Lewis

Launches Two Homers Monday Night
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
New York Knicks

Malcolm Brogdon on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers
Miami Heat

Heat Interested in Reunion With Precious Achiuwa
Tyler Glasnow

Fans 11 in Seven No-Hit Innings Monday
Slade Cecconi

Takes No-Hitter Into Eighth Inning Monday
Max Muncy

Batting Cleanup in Return to Dodgers
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Reportedly Declined Knicks' Contract Offer
Younghoe Koo

Falcons Auditioning Kickers, Could Replace Younghoe Koo
Denver Broncos

Sean Payton Says Broncos Need to be Better With Run-Pass Balance
Tank Bigsby

Eagles Acquiring Tank Bigsby From Jaguars on Monday
George Kittle

Likely Out 3-5 Weeks, Could Land on Injured Reserve
Chase Burns

to be Activated on Friday
Brock Purdy

Dealing With Multiple Injuries, Could Miss Week 2
Tyler Glasnow

Cleared to Start on Monday
Logan O'Hoppe

Placed on Concussion Injured List
Christian Yelich

Returning on Monday
Elias Pettersson

Feeling "Good" Ahead of Season
NHL

Alex Formenton Rejoins Swiss Team
NHL

Grigori Denisenko Heads Back Home
CAR

Kevin Labanc Joins Hurricanes for Tryout
Ross Colton

Healthy for Start of Season
Daniel Palencia

Cubs Place Daniel Palencia on Injured List With Shoulder Strain
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Returning on Monday
Sean Murphy

Done for the Year With Hip Labral Tear
Alec Bohm

Lands on Injured List With Cyst in his Shoulder
Trea Turner

Going on Injured List, Phillies Hope to Have him Back for Playoffs
Brock Bowers

Considered Day-to-Day With Knee Injury
Jonathan Taylor

is "Good" After Taking a Hit to his Neck in Week 1
Caio Borralho

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Nassourdine Imavov

Extends Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy

Gets Submitted
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Taps Out Mauricio Ruffy
Russell Wilson

Remains the Giants Starter
Paul Craig

Retires After UFC Paris Loss
Denny Hamlin

Earns his First Cup Victory at Gateway
Kyle Larson

Damage Ruins Kyle Larson's Chance At a Top Finish at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Scores his Third Top-10 Finish at Gateway
Joey Logano

Maintains his Perfect Top-Five Streak at Gateway
Ryan Blaney

Struggles and Recovers for a Top-Five Finish at Gateway
Modestas Bukauskas

Scores First-Round Knockout
Bolaji Oki

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Xavier Worthy

Week-to-Week with Dislocated Shoulder
Mason Jones

Scores Comeback Win
Rhys McKee

Suffers Third-Round TKO Loss
Axel Sola

Successful In His UFC Debut
Robert Ruchała

Robert Ruchala Unsuccessful In His UFC Debut
William Gomis

Bounces Back In The Win Column
Derrick Henry

Scores Twice but has Costly Fumble on Sunday
Lamar Jackson

Shines With Three Total Touchdowns in Loss to Bills
Chase Elliott

Gets Lucky but Still Has Best Run at Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Wins Stage 2, but Was Let Down by Strategy
Tyler Reddick

Despite Bad Luck, Tyler Reddick Does What he Needed to Do
Chase Briscoe

Recovers from Incident with Daniel Suarez to Finish Second
William Byron

Late Caution Foils William Byron's Shot at Gateway Victory
Jayson Tatum

"Moving Around Way Better"
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Gateway
Denny Hamlin

Fastest in Qualifying, the Favorite to Win at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Looking for Redemption at Gateway
Joey Logano

Has Been Elite at Gateway
Austin Cindric

Should Be On Your Radar at Gateway
AJ Allmendinger

Could Be a Sleeper Again at Gateway
Tyler Reddick

Southern 500 Near-Miss Makes Tyler Reddick a Stronger Option for Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace a Likely Gateway Contender
Alex Bowman

a Long Shot to Advance in Playoffs
Austin Dillon

Richard Childress Racing Looks Slower at Gateway, Which Will Hurt Austin Dillon
Shane Van Gisbergen

Starts 18th in Gateway Debut
Jeremy Swayman

Ready to Get Back on Track
Connor McDavid

Aiming for More Goals
NJ

Luke Glendening Signs Tryout Deal With Devils
Dylan Harper

Hoping to be Ready for the Opener Versus Dallas
EDM

Derek Ryan Retires From Hockey
Connor Zary

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Flames
Caio Borralho

Set For A Title Eliminator Bout
Nassourdine Imavov

Looks To Earn A Title Shot
Mauricio Ruffy

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set For UFC Paris Co-Main Event
Modestas Bukauskas

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Paul Craig

In Dire Need Of Victory
Mason Jones

Set for Main-Card Bout
Bolaji Oki

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Rhys McKee

Set To Open Up UFC Paris Main Card

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP