RADIO
Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 9 in 2025, or just mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 9 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take a look at starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.
There were plenty of surprising starts this week, and the theme of this week's column seems to be post-hype sleepers. Each one of these pitchers was once considered a big deal prospect but has floundered at the big league level. Are any of them ready to turn things around? We'll first look at Quinn Priester's dominance against Pittsburgh. Then, we'll deep dive into Edward Cabrera's strong start against the Angels. We'll finish with a breakdown of Shane Baz's one-run performance against Toronto.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of May 26.
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Quinn Priester, Milwaukee Brewers – 3% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 38.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 5.17 FIP, 1.8% K-BB%
5/24 @ PIT: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
It was a revenge special for Priester on Saturday, as the right-hander mowed down his former team for six innings of one-run ball in a no-decision. The revenge was bittersweet as the bullpen ultimately coughed up the game, but it was a great start from Priester nonetheless. Priester has been on a bit of a roll as of late, posting a 2.53 ERA over his last four starts.
Is there any fantasy value to be had here, or is Priester best left on waivers?
Originally a first-round draft pick by Pittsburgh in 2019, Priester was viewed as a top prospect coming up through the Pirates system, ranking as high as the number 52 prospect in MLB by MLB Pipeline in 2021. Priester works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, slider, cutter, curveball, and changeup. In this start against Pittsburgh, Priester leaned heavily on the sinker and the slider.
Let’s start with the sinker, as it’s Priester’s most-used pitch. He’s thrown his sinker 44.1% of the time this season and threw it 49% of the time in this start. A 93.4 mph offering, Priester’s sinker has relatively low spin at 2021 RPM, but has plus vertical drop, making it a great groundball pitch. Batters have a 1-degree average launch angle off Priester’s sinker and a 60% ground-ball rate this season.
Batters have struggled to elevate off Priester’s sinker at times, but they’ve had no problem making contact. Opponents are hitting .270 with a .397 SLG, and .349 wOBA against Priester’s sinker this season, along with a .310 xBA, .467 xSLG, and .386 xwOBA. Sinkers aren’t generally known as swing-and-miss pitches, but Priester’s is especially punchless, with a 3.3% swinging-strike rate and a 91.9% contact rate against.
Groundballs are great, but Priester does have a 23.1% line drive rate and a 91.4 mph average exit velocity against the pitch this season. Priester has long had plus ground-ball rates dating back to his time in the minor leagues, so it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect solid groundball numbers from this pitch going forward.
Unfortunately, I think that’s about all this pitch is good for. Batters hit the pitch hard and frequently, which isn’t the best recipe for success.
Priester has a bevy of secondary options, but his most prominent has been the slider. He’s thrown the pitch 28.3% of the time this season, and threw it 30% of the time against Pittsburgh. The slider has been quite effective for Priester, with opponents batting just .173 with a .327 SLG and .252 wOBA against Priester’s slider this season. An 85.4 mph offering, Priester’s slider has above-average spin and vertical drop.
Priester has gotten some excellent results with the pitch thus far, and it’s proven to be an exceptional strikeout pitch as well. Priester has an 18.1% swinging-strike rate and a 35.9% chase rate with the pitch this season. He earned five of his nine whiffs with the pitch in his start against Pittsburgh. I would anticipate the .182 BABIP against Priester’s slider to rise over time, but this still has the makings of a plus offering.
His next best pitch has probably been the curveball, which Priester throws 9.1% of the time. He threw seven curveballs in this start, earning three whiffs on five swings for an impressive 60% whiff rate. An 80.4 mph offering, Priester’s curveball has high spin and plus horizontal movement. Have a look at his movement profile (curveball in blue).
You can see how the curveball deviates from league average, and this type of movement has made Priester’s curveball an especially effective groundball pitch. He has a 0-degree average launch angle against the curveball this season and a 71.4% ground-ball rate.
I wouldn’t expect Priester to maintain a rate that high the entire season; he has a career 50% ground-ball rate with the pitch and has a miraculous 0% line drive rate against this season, meaning he’s yet to allow a single line drive off his curveball. That’s simultaneously impressive and concerning, as we know, regression could be coming for Priester’s curveball.
Like the slider, it has an astonishingly low .167 BABIP against, and that number will surely rise over time, reducing the pitch’s effectiveness.
Even though he’s gotten some good individual results on certain pitches this year, it’s hard to get on board with Priester as a viable fantasy option. The most glaring deficiency would be his lack of strikeouts. Priester has a pitiful 14.8% strikeout rate this season and has a 15.1% strikeout rate for his major league career.
He’s gotten decent whiff numbers on his slider, but there isn’t enough potential in the rest of his arsenal to generate whiffs consistently. In fact, Priester may be one of the most strikeout-deficient starters in MLB. Maybe he could get away with that if he gave us sparkling ratios, but we can’t expect that from a guy with a 4.66 ERA this year and a 5.79 career ERA, plus a career 1.53 WHIP.
Verdict:
Priester has done some impressive things on a small scale. His slider has been incredibly effective both at getting outs and generating whiffs. His curveball has complemented the slider well, inducing groundballs at a 71% clip and stymying opposing batters. Unfortunately, while individual components of this profile seem good and effective, the whole package lacks fantasy appeal.
Priester pitches for a middling team that can’t consistently produce and secure wins, he has an atrocious 14.8% strikeout rate, and he’s walking the world at a 13% BB rate. That means a bloated ERA and WHIP. Sure, he did fine against the Pirates, but Pittsburgh has a .290 wOBA and 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season.
The lineup stinks, and Priester took advantage of that fact, but there isn’t anything more here.
Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins – 11% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 34.1 IP, 5.50 ERA, 4.74 FIP, 12.5% K-BB%
5/25 @ LAA: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K
Cabrera was electric on Sunday, fanning ten Angels en route to his first victory of the season. The right-hander has struggled to a 4.73 ERA this season, but has been pitching much better as of late. Over his last four starts, Cabrera has a 2.53 ERA and 21.7% K-BB%. Is this a sign of him turning things around, or just a mirage?
Originally signed as an international free agent back in 2015, Cabrera became a huge prospect for Miami coming up. He was considered one of the top right-handed pitching prospects in baseball around 2021-2022. Cabrera works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, changeup, curveball, slider, and four-seam fastball.
He used a little of everything against Los Angeles, throwing each pitch at least 13% of the time.
Cabrera’s most-used pitch in this start was his four-seam fastball, which is interesting because Cabrera has been more of a sinker guy this season. Cabrera has thrown his sinker 25.9% of the time this year, compared to 11.2% four-seam usage. In fact, Cabrera was barely throwing his four-seamer before this start.
In his start before this one, he used it just 2.2% of the time against the Cubs and was routinely under 10%. Which pitch is better, though, the sinker or the four-seamer?
Based on the results, the four-seamer has been much more effective than the sinker this year. Batters are clobbering Cabrera’s sinker for a .317 AVG, .561 SLG, and .392 wOBA. To make matters worse, he also has a .321 xBA, .579 xSLG, and .397 xwOBA against his sinker this season.
Opponents have a 91.1 mph average exit velocity, an 11-degree average launch angle off Cabrera’s sinker, and a 47.5% ground-ball rate.
Conversely, batters are hitting just .176 off Cabrera’s four-seamer with a .412 SLG and .350 wOBA. The amount of power Cabrera has allowed is a little concerning, as opponents have a 95.1 mph average exit velocity off Cabrera’s four-seamer, but the pitch has still outperformed his sinker.
I would expect the .182 BABIP against his four-seamer to rise, but it still seems like the better pitch. Perhaps the increased four-seam usage in this start is the beginning of a new approach for Cabrera. If that were the case, he would get a little interesting as a wavier wire arm.
In addition to the fastballs, Cabrera has a trio of secondary offerings that have been rather effective strikeout pitches in the major leagues. The best this season has been the slider. Cabrera has only thrown his slider 15.2% of the time, but he has a monster 49% whiff rate with the pitch.
He earned a whopping six whiffs on eight swings against the Angels with it, totaling 18 whiffs in that start. A hard slider at 88.4 mph, it also has exceptional spin at 2490 RPM, and plus horizontal movement.
Edward Cabrera, Wicked 91mph Slider. 🤢
4th K thru 2. pic.twitter.com/608Qhi6gkg
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 22, 2025
It dies low and on the glove side for Cabrera, making it especially effective against right-handed batters. Overall, opponents are hitting just .179 off the slider with a .179 SLG and .226 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Cabrera has earned these results as well, with a .187 xBA, .233 xSLG, and .246 xwOBA.
Batters also have an 86.2 mph average exit velocity against this pitch, much lower than some of Cabrera’s other offerings. The slider has been great for Cabrera this season, and I would like to see him throw it more frequently, if he can command it.
Another pitch that worked well for Cabrera in this start was his curveball, which he threw 23% of the time and got seven whiffs on 11 swings with, good for a 64% whiff rate. Cabrera has leaned on his curveball more than his slider this season, with 23.5% usage, and it’s been an effective pitch at times, as we saw on Sunday.
On the year, batters are hitting .241 against the pitch with a .552 SLG and .349 wOBA. Those numbers aren’t impressive, but the expected stats paint a rosier picture for Cabrera. He has a .166 xBA, .297 xSLG, and .222 xwOBA off his curveball this season. The combination of an 85 mph average exit velocity and a 52.9% ground-ball rate with the pitch means lots of weak groundballs and easy outs for Cabrera.
That, coupled with plus strikeout ability, makes this a solid pitch.
Cabrera’s arsenal is rather deep, and one more pitch I’d like to touch on is his changeup. Revered as one of his best pitches as a prospect, Cabrera’s changeup is noteworthy for its hard velocity. He averages 93.4 mph with the pitch, which is only half an mph lower than the league average four-seam fastball at 93.9 mph.
Unfortunately, the changeup has produced poor results for Cabrera this season. Opponents are hitting .300 with a .400 SLG and a .340 wOBA against Cabrera’s changeup. The swinging-strike rate is down to an alarmingly low 10.6%, and the chase rate is down to 29.4%. Just a few years ago, Cabrera’s changeup was considered his best pitch, and he was able to dominate hitters with it.
Let’s have a look at his changeup heatmaps from this year compared to the rest of his career.
Pre-2025:
2025:
It's not crazy different, but one thing that sticks out is the location of the changeup, which is down low. He was locating more on the arm side prior to this season, but he’s locating more on the glove side this year. He’s also refusing to throw the pitch even belt-level to hitters, keeping it down as much as he can.
Maybe he lacks confidence in the pitch, or maybe it’s poor command (this is Edward Cabrera we’re talking about), but he just isn’t getting the same results with his changeup this season. Even in this start, he got a modest two of his 18 whiffs with the pitch.
He seems to have begun throwing the pitch less often, using it only 18.7% of the time over his last four starts. He was throwing it 24% of the time before May, when his hot streak began.
Verdict:
What to do with Edward Cabrera? The right-hander has been flashing brilliance like this at us since he was first promoted in 2021. Yours truly fell in love with the nasty changeup, two strong breaking balls, and hard velocity fastball when Cabrera first came up.
Unfortunately, Cabrera has struggled to establish himself as a major leaguer. He’s had a 4.37 ERA in 334 career innings, and the tough part is that Cabrera is known to blow up at any given moment.
It’s not usually consistent results that lead to the bloated ERA, but brief stretches of success followed by a big blow-up or two. He’s currently on the brief stretch of success part of the cycle. Can he finally break it?
Increased reliance on the four-seamer and curveball could lead to more consistent results for Cabrera, but if you value your ERA and WHIP, you’ll steer clear. I think Cabrera is usable as a streamer in certain matchups and in certain situations. I like using a pitcher like this when behind in an H2H week, where I need a Hail Mary play.
Sure, he could implode on you, but he could also strike out 10, like we saw on Sunday.
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays – 46% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 49 IP, 5.33 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 13.8% K-BB%
5/24 vs. TOR: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Baz had one of his best starts since early this season, limiting the Blue Jays to just one run over five 2/3 innings while picking up his fourth win of the year. Baz had some sleeper appeal coming into the season and was actually drafted in most standard leagues, but his poor early-season performance has him dropped below a 50% roster rate.
Was this start the beginning of a Baz turnaround, or was this just good fortune for the right-hander?
Originally a first-round pick by the Pirates back in 2017, Baz was sent to Tampa Bay as part of the ill-fated Chris Archer trade. Baz works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, knuckle curve, changeup, and slider. He leaned heavily on two offerings in this start against Toronto, throwing his four-seam fastball and knuckle curveball a combined 80% of the time.
We’ll start with the fastball, which has been Baz’s most-used pitch this season at 47.6%. A 96.7 mph offering, Baz’s four-seamer is characterized by its plus velocity and spin. He has slightly above-average movement with the pitch, but overall, it has a rather typical shape that batters seem to have handled well.
Opponents are hitting .273 against Baz’s four-seamer, along with a .416 SLG and .374 wOBA.
The expected stats suggest that Baz has earned these results, with a .260 xBA, .443 xSLG, and .374 xwOBA. Batters have hit Baz’s fastball hard with a 90.9 mph average exit velocity against. Pair that with a 19-degree average launch angle against, and it’s easy to see why Baz has surrendered so many home runs.
Baz has long allowed hard contact and flyballs with his fastball, so his best hope is a reduced HR/FB rate. His current 16.9% HR/FB rate is only slightly higher than his career 14.1% mark, so we shouldn’t expect too much regression there anytime soon.
Baz’s best secondary offering is the knuckle curve, a pitch he threw 28% of the time against Toronto. While he peppered it in frequently, one disappointing stat is that Baz only got one whiff on ten swings with his knuckle curve in this start, good for a measly 10% whiff rate.
He has a 24.8% whiff rate with the pitch on the year, which is obviously much better than 10%, but it’s nothing special in terms of strikeouts. Baz isn’t exactly racking up whiffs with this pitch, and I wouldn’t expect that to change anytime soon either.
The knuckle curve is best as a groundball pitch. Opponents bat just .218 off the pitch with a -1-degree average launch angle against it. Baz has a 66.7% ground-ball rate with the pitch this season and a .333 BABIP against it, meaning the .218 AVG could be sustainable.
Even with this pitch, there’s cause for concern about Baz’s home run rate. He’s allowed 1.65 HR/9 this season and has a career 1.39 HR/9. As mentioned before, his HR/FB rate could reduce a little, but it’s not out of line with his career mark either. This could just be who Shane Baz is, and that’s not very appealing for fantasy.
One pitch that really stands out for Baz is the slider, and not for good reasons. Opponents have pulverized this slider for a .444 AVG, 1.278 SLG, and .724 wOBA. Granted, Baz has only used it 8.2% of the time, but those are still some wild numbers to see. He’s somehow allowed five home runs with the pitch already despite throwing it just 75 times.
The slider used to be effective for Baz. Prior to this season, opponents were hitting just .160 with a .337 SLG off Baz’s slider all time. He’s lost about three inches of drop and one and a half inches of break with the pitch this season.
Perhaps he just doesn’t have a feel for it anymore, but the pitch seems unusable for Baz. In turn, he only threw it 4.9% of the time in this start and has only used it 6.3% of the time since his April 14 start against Boston.
Verdict:
There’s more bad than good in this profile, and ultimately, there doesn’t seem to be much reason to hold out hope for Baz. His fastball, while hard, also gets hit rather hard and is susceptible to the long ball. His best breaking ball is the knuckle curve, but with a middling whiff rate, it doesn’t create too much excitement for Baz.
His slider looks absolutely broken. This season, batters have an average exit velocity of 97.8 mph off that pitch and a .444 AVG.
Baz pitches for a middling club; he lost his pitcher-friendly home ballpark thanks to a hurricane, and none of his breaking balls offer much strikeout upside. There’s no reason to add Baz if he was dropped in your league, and there’s no reason to keep hanging onto him if you drafted him.
He’s volatile and has low upside.
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