Week 17 Starting Pitching Waiver Wire: Santana, Nola, Koehler & More

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The long week 15 stretch is over as we move into standard weekly matchups for week 16. The depth of reliable pitching to be found on the waiver wire is becoming thinner and thinner as owners are more willing to dump first-half busts and scoop up the intriguing options we discuss in this article.

If you've been following along with this series all season, you know the drill. If not, this article is to help you uncover starting pitcher options that may have been overlooked in your league or dropped after a poor start. As always, included are options for both shallow and deeper leagues. I also add my list of pitchers discussed previously at the end of the article with ownership levels to boot. Make sure to check them out, and grab any that are still out there.

Don’t forget to check out our Starting Pitcher Matchups & Streaming Tool for expert guidance during the week too, including what pitchers to start/sit for seasonal and DFS leagues. Let’s get to it.

Editor’s Note: To read about even more waiver wire options for starting pitchers, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily.

 

Starting Pitchers Waiver Wire - Shallow Leagues

Aaron Nola (PHI, SP)

OWNED IN: 22% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in all leagues

The Year of the Youth carries on with Aaron Nola, the highest rated pitching prospect (28th overall) to reach the majors this year. The Nola hype train only added more coal to its burners in his debut (6 IP, 1 ER, 6/0 K/BB), so what's up with the 22% ownership? This needs to be addressed now.

Yes, it was the Tampa Rays' putrid offense, but Nola looked like a poised veteran on the mound with his only mistake being a Nathan Karns HR, which is safe to say a first in MLB history for a pitcher's debut.

If you didn't get a chance to view his outing he relied primarily on his fastball (65%) while mixing in his curve (18%) and changeup (17%). His changeup had some serious bite as it dives out the zone and I anticipate it being his best pitch here on out.

The reason Nola has staying power is his ability to limit the walks (ZiPs and Steamer project a 2.15 BB/9 rate). The wins are going to be hard to come by for Nola with his own anemic offense behind him, so if he can maintain solid ratios, which I think he can, Nola will be a useful fantasy commodity in any league size.

The matchups aren't too intimidating (@ CHC, vs ATL, vs LAD) and Nola's ownership should propel up for his start vs Atlanta, but be on the front end of this one if you still can. It's crazy how obsessed owners are in the young hitters but Nola remains available in 78% of leagues.

 

Ervin Santana (MIN, SP)

OWNED IN: 50% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ team leagues / Stream Worthy

Like a scorned lover, fantasy owners kept Ervin Santana out of sight and out of mind for his 80 game suspension, but he's come storming back into our hearts and deserves our attention. Through his first four starts he's racked up a 2-0 record with a 2.60/0.98 line and a 21/7 K/BB ratio, including a dominant performance last time out vs LAA.

I'm bullish on his potential to keep this up. His .205 BABIP is well below his career average while his 0.94 WHIP is well below his career numbers (1.25-1.30). He hasn't added any pitches or velocity to his repertoire  and he's always been prone to rough outings, as evident by his one poor start this year (@DET - 4 IP, 6 ER). That said, Santana has shown us he has the talent to be fantasy asset as recent as 2013 when he produced a 3.24/1.14 line in 211.0 innings, so his strong start needs to be taken seriously.

I can see scenarios where Santana would not be talented enough to stick on shallow fantasy rotations, but if you're struggling for ratios or are on the stream police (vs PIT - Yes, @ TOR - No) he's worth keeping an eye on. Out there in half of fantasy leagues, give him a spin vs Pittsburgh next time out.

 

Tom Koehler (MIA, SP)

OWNED IN: 26% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ team leagues

The Marlins have been a sneaky source for a quality pitching this year and the buck doesn't stop with Tom Koehler. Koehler has arguably been the Marlins #2 behind Jose Fernandez since the start of June.

Koehler was excellent last time out at the poor Padres, throwing seven shutout innings with seven strikeouts. (Cue to A.J. Preller taking way too many tequila shots).

Since his June 5th start at Coors, Koehler has a 2.22/1.04 line with 5-3 record. Even more impressive he's on a run of six straight starts with two earned runs or less.

His fastball (92.2) isn't blowing any batters away but his knuckle curve has been keeping hitters in check. The sabremetrics imply that Koehler's ERA should be in the 4.00 range, but the good times aren't over just yet for this 15% owned option. Here are Koehler's next three matchups lined up: vs WAS, vs NYM, @ ATL.

In case you were curious, those teams are 12th, 22nd, and 26th in OPS vs RHP. This represents a great opportunity for players in deep leagues with limited adds. Ride Koehler for the next three outings and reevaluate from there.

 

Starting Pitchers Waiver Wire - Deeper Leagues

Erasmo Ramirez (TB, SP)

OWNED IN: 33% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12-team leagues / Stream Watch

Erasmo Ramirez has been discussed at Rotoballer previously so I'm not going to dive too deep here. After his rough outing vs Baltimore (7.1 IP, 5 ER, 3K) it's possible a few owners jumped ship this weekend. Keep in mind the majority of that damage was a Chris Davis grand slam and he settled down well after. He gave up two hits to Adam Jones and a little league HR to David Lough.

Even with the rough start Ramirez owns a 2.20/0.98 line since June 4th and has displayed the consistency required to roster a pitcher full-time. His fastball/changeup combo has been extremely successful for Ramirez and he locates each pitch well enough to throw in any count. His 12.4 SwStk% would be 12th among SP if he qualified, ahead of the likes of Michael Pineda, Jacob deGrom, and Madison Bumgarner. Pretty impressive considering how poor his slider has been.

His next outings are at Boston and at Chicago (AL) and some owners may be scared off by his ugly home/road splits and the Orioles game. A deeper dive shows those splits are caused by some terrible games at Miami and Toronto in early April. Grab a share in deep leagues and you won't regret it.

 

Chris Tillman (SF, SP)

OWNED IN: 40% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVER: Add in 12+ team leagues / Stream Watch

Chris Tillman was drafted in almost every league this preseason with most projecting he would serve as the Orioles ace. That didn't come to fruition (Wei-Yen Chen has been their best SP) and Tillman saw his ownership start to tank after posting a horrendous 6.22 ERA through 14 starts. After a painful outing at Toronto on June 21st (in which no one should have used him), he's bounced back with a 1.38/0.95 line and a 28/6 K/BB ratio. Those are useful in any league format.

So what changed? Let's take a look:

It's figuratively a completely different pitcher. Limiting the walks and homers has been the key, along with some added luck from the high LOB rate. This wasn't exactly a cake walk stretch either (vs CLE, @ CHW, vs WAS, @ DET, @ TB). His next start is a home outing vs the weak hitting Braves, so I recommend giving him a shot in any league size. That's followed by a road outing at Oakland who will likely have traded Ben Zobrist by that point. Act accordingly.

 

Danny Duffy (MIL, SP)

OWNED IN: 21% of Fleaflicker Leagues

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ team leagues

The Duffmeister has come back with a fury after a DL stint, posting a 2.15 ERA over six starts. Even more impressive has been the month of July where he owns a 1.37 ERA, including his latest outing vs HOU (6 IP, 1 ER, 3K, ND).

He isn't striking anyone out (2.73 K/9 in July) but he isn't walking batters either. In the process he's dropped his ERA from 4.65 to 4.03.

Duffy is the same pitcher who posted a 2.53 ERA in 149.1 innings in 2014 and a 1.85 ERA in five 2013 starts, so improvement was anticipated from his rough start. He also tends to pitch his best baseball in the dog days of summer (2.99 in July, 3.60 in August). He's not going to be a front-end pitcher for any fantasy team, but he can carry strong ratios with a great chance to pick up wins on the pennant-seeking Royals.

That said, maybe lay off for his game at Toronto coming up. After that is a trip to Detroit. Oof. Proceed with caution.

 

Other Pitchers Previously Highlighted to Consider

Of the grouping that has dropped double digits (Walker, Jimenez, Mongtomery, Rodriguez), I would be targeting Taijuan Walker. Tough matchups (vs DET, vs LAA, @ DET) have scared owners off, and today's matchup vs Toronto is likely to drop his ownership even further. Grab a share if he gets cut or throw a trade out there for a fringe player. Better times are ahead.

 

In Order of Ownership %

Noah Syndergaard (NYM, SP / 73% ; up 2%)
Yovani Gallardo (TEX, SP / 63%; down 7%)
Wei-Yin Chen (BAL, SP / 60% ; no change)
Taijuan Walker (SEA, SP / 58%; down 11%)
Yordano Ventura (KC, SP / 53%)
Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL, SP / 52% ; down 10%)
Jaime Garcia (DL) (STL, SP / 51% ; up 1%)
Mike Leake (CIN, SP / 39% ; up 7%)
Mike Montgomery (SEA, SP / 37% ; down 12%)
Jesse Chavez (OAK, SP / 36% ; up 2%)
Taylor Jungmann (MIL, SP / 35%)
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS, SP / 33% ; down 10%)
Jesse Hahn (DL) (OAK, SP / 27% ; down 2%)
Kyle Hendricks (CHC, SP / 26%)
Brett Anderson (LAD, SP / 21% ; down 8%)
Jonathan Niese (NYM, SP / 15% ; up 1%)
Matt Wisler (ATL, SP / 9% ; up 2%)
Jake Peavy (SF, SP / 7%)
Manny Banuelos (ATL, SP / 7% ; down 1%)

 

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