Second Half Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Jarod Rupp's "My Guys"

July 25, 2025

Jarod's second-half fantasy baseball breakouts for 2025. These are all MLB hitters and pitchers he's trying to get on his rosters via waiver wire or trade including Luis Gil, Trevor Story, more. Test Edit.

So you've deftly maneuvered your way through the first half of the season, starting with a successful draft, or perhaps you're at the other end of the spectrum, fighting and clawing your way to the final playoff spot in your league. Regardless of where you're at and how you got there, you're preparing for the stretch run.

There are several ways to improve your roster, whether it be via trade, waiver wire additions, or perhaps by stashing an injured player or prospect before their triumphant return/debut.

In this article, we'll take a look at five players who fit one of those molds, each of which have a strong case for a second-half breakout that could help your fantasy team ride their momentum into the playoffs. These aren't the only ones to keep an eye on -- make sure to check out Thunder Dan's picks for a second-half breakout, too.

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Marcell Ozuna, DH, Atlanta Braves

After hitting at least 39 home runs in each of the last two seasons, 2025 Marcell Ozuna is looking a lot more like 2022 Ozuna than the one we saw over the last two campaigns. That is, in terms of categorical production, but what about the peripheral numbers?

Ozuna is hitting just .239 and pacing for only about 22 home runs, assuming 650 plate appearances:

But looking at other stats, the 34-year-old is making more contact and striking out less this year compared to the last few years, hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did in 2023, and chasing far less:

The lower chase rate has led to a 99th-percentile walk rate, which is good, but not what the Braves need from him. The offense is struggling to score runs, so look for the veteran slugger to start swinging a lot more in the second half.

He should start swinging, according to his expected numbers. His actual BA (.239) is 25 points lower than his xBA (.265); SLG (.396) is 87 points lower than xSLG (.483); and wOBA (.339) is 38 points lower than xwOBA (.377). It all points to an eventual turnaround.

Supposedly, the Big Bear has been dealing with a hip injury all season, which could explain why he's been reluctant to swing and why there's been a slight downtick in bat speed, but the All-Star break should help rejuvenate him for the stretch run.

Could the 3x All-Star be traded? Yes, and it almost seems likely more than not, but he should land with a contending club that will ask him to hit for power instead of watching pitches go by.

One last nugget to leave you with... looking at the 6-foot-1 Dominican's career splits, August and September are two of his three best months of the season based on career wOBA and wRC+ as seen in the following table:

Sure, the 2x Silver Slugger Award winner could be having somewhat of an age-related slowdown in 2025, but I think he rallies over the final two months no matter what city he's hitting in.

Luis Garcia Jr., 2B, Washington Nationals

Luis Garcia Jr. has shown enough over the last two seasons to prove he's a capable major league hitter, especially in 2024 when he hit .282 with 18 home runs and 22 steals on the back of an 82-ish percent contact rate and low 14-ish percent strikeout rate.

The 25-year-old's stats, like strikeout rate (14.1 percent), contact rate (80.5 percent), and barrel rate (8.8 percent), are similar to or better than last year's numbers, while his hard-hit rate is a full 5.5 percent better than 2024.

Each year since he debuted in 2020, Garcia's batting average varied by no more than 15 points in either direction when compared to xBA, but this season, there is a 47-point discrepancy, one of the largest in the majors.

Expected SLG (89 points) and expected wOBA (59 points) tell a similar story, one that says that the Nats' second baseman is headed for a rebound in the second half.

Luis García Jr. gets the scoring started for the @Nationals with a 110 MPH blast 🚀 pic.twitter.com/T8IgqA5ATE

— MLB (@MLB) May 29, 2025

While last year's stat line may have been his statistical ceiling, it was good enough to make him the sixth-ranked second baseman for fantasy, but even with some regression this year, he should still finish top 12 despite currently sitting at 17th overall.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers

As poor as he began the year, you may not have noticed that Andrew Vaughn was demoted to Triple-A and then traded to the Brewers in the Aaron Civale trade. But don't look now, he's back!

Maybe the 27-year-old just needed a change of scenery, but he's recorded a hit in each of the first five games he's played for Milwaukee, going 6-for-14 (.429) with two doubles and two home runs during that stretch. Not only that, he's recorded an RBI in each game as well -- a whopping 10 of them to be exact.

BUILD THE ANDREW VAUGHN STATUE pic.twitter.com/DZ2RHbPBBh

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) July 12, 2025

But can he keep it up? Well, don't forget that this is a former third-overall draft pick here, so he has the pedigree, it just hasn't shown in the majors. Perhaps that wasn't his fault, though, as the White Sox promoted him to the majors after just 55 minor league games, so maybe he wasn't ready.

Now, with extra motivation playing for a new team to prove his worth and potentially land a new contract in the offseason, Vaughn could finally reach his full potential in the second half.

I outlined the case for Vaughn as a breakout candidate in my pre-season Post Hype Sleepers article earlier this year, including the following graphic showing that he'd progressed to near-70th percentile in each of those particular stats for the first time last year, so he was on his way to putting it all together.

While that prediction initially appeared to have fallen flat during his time with Chicago at the start of the year, in a limited sample, it seems to be coming to fruition with his new squad in Milwaukee. At just six percent rostered, the right-handed slugger is available in nearly every league.

(Update: Vaughn went hitless in his sixth game with the Brew Crew, but collected hits in the following two games along with two more RBI and a run scored)

Luis Gil, SP, New York Yankees

Luis Gil, on the precipice of joining the Yankee rotation full-time in 2022, underwent Tommy John surgery in May of that season. The righty finally worked his way back to the majors in 2024, and his performance over the course of the season culminated with 2024 AL Rookie of the Year honors.

The 6-foot-2 hurler went 15-7 with a 3.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 171 strikeouts in 151 2/3 innings pitched (10.15 K/9) during his first full season in the big leagues.

Unfortunately, a lat injury suffered in the spring put a hold on an encore performance before the season even began. That will soon change, though, as the 27-year-old recently began a rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset, striking out six batters in 3 1/3 innings.

Luis Gil was amazing in his first rehab appearance.

3.1ip, 2h, 1er, 1bb, 6ks

50 pitches - 36 strikespic.twitter.com/AxSA7oacWl

— Pinstripe Strong (@PinstripeStrong) July 13, 2025

Gil should make a few more starts before rejoining the Yankees, but he has the talent to regain his 2024 form. Expect New York to fortify their lineup by the trade deadline so as not to lose too much ground on the Blue Jays while fending off a hot Boston team, which should set Gil and fantasy managers up for some wins down the stretch.

Most fantasy teams need pitching help, and the 41 percent rostered Dominican could be the one managers look to for that assistance.

Honorable Mention: Trevor Story, SS, Boston Red Sox

Looking at Trevor Story's season-long slash line, it may not appear all that impressive, sitting at .257/.298/.417, but if you look at what he's done over the last 15 games, it shows some serious momentum that hopefully the All-Star break did not stunt.

The 32-year-old is slashing .404/.443/.719 with six doubles, four home runs, 17 RBI, 15 runs scored, and five steals over that 15-game stretch, helping the Red Sox to 10 straight wins and 13 of their last 15.

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