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So, I guess Rickie Fowler wants to party? The guy does not want to go away and continues to do damage shooting a -3 (67) today, leading the US Open. Wyndam Clark continues to prove himself as somebody who is worthy of major praise, while Rory McIlroy once again finds himself in the mix in a major. Xander Schaueffele did that thing where he didn't play bad yet shot a score that may have removed him from contention by shooting level par in R2 after a record breaking 62 in R2.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 2 Analysis
Best Scores
Ownership
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 3 Strategy
There definitely looks to be some wind tomorrow afternoon compared to the AM, potentially providing easier scoring conditions in the morning.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the PGA TOUR SHOWDOWN $4K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY], which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Play who ever you want other than Rory. #ChalkCity
$9,000+
Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay continue to underperform and provide ownership leverage with massive leverage.
Cam Smith played well today but has yet to go nuclear with the putter...full send!!!
$8,000+
Tony, Colln, Tyrrell, Hideki, Tommy all make the list in the $8k range after some disappointing weekly rounds.
$7,000+
Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala, Russel Henley, and Andrew Putnam all make sense in the $7k range.
$6,000+
Billy Horchel, Adam Hadwin, Patrick Rodgers and Dylan Wu continue to crush the $6k range.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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