RADIO
We're entering the crux of trading season, with enough games in the book to give fantasy managers an initial idea of where a team is performing well and where you might need to perform some categorical surgery.
We don't want to just make trades all willy-nilly. You, my savvy readers, want to make trades that best set you up for success, looking to send out offers that have the best chance of getting accepted, and the best chance of improving your team in the most meaningful way.
For this first edition of Roster Doctor, FD, we'll go over some of the best practices for greasing the wheels of commerce and look deeper at a couple of hitters that are set up for increases in their overall value but who can also give you big boosts in specific categories. Trust me; I didn't go to eight years of pepper school just to be called Mr.
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Sales Pitch Best Practices for Trades
Before we get to some specific hitters you should be targeting to achieve specific goals, let's go over a few suggestions for making the trade offers that will best accomplish those goals. Remember, the goal isn't to "win" a trade, at least in regards to you coming out ahead of where you're trading partner ends up. I don't know about you, but I'm not rooting for my trade partner to fail.
For one, they don't have to fail to make the trade successful for me. Goals can be accomplished by all sides and you don't have to be the one getting over on the deal. Two, a trade bust might make me the "winner" in the short term but will ultimately take away from any presumed authority I have when doing trades in the future. If I'm pitching a narrative with my trade offer that completely falls apart, my trading partner will be less likely to believe my pitches in the future. Fantasy managers can be downright elephantalous (totally a word) when it comes to remembering who burned them and you don't want to be the one who sold them a lemon.
Make a plan with specific categorical goals
That's as simple as it gets but it can still get thrown out the window when making a trade just for the sake of making one. Drill down deeper than "I want to trade for player "x" because I think he'll be better than player "y" and have specific goals about where you want to improve. Assess who you're trying to trade for and whom you're trading by using dollar figures (whether from the FanGraphs auction calculator, or one of the many other public sites that calculate them) that capture their entire fantasy contribution. The more you understand which categories have been the most responsible for a player's overall value, the easier it is to predict what direction that value could be moving.
While some players' overall value will be more evenly split across the categories, often there are players whose value is being propped up or held down by one or two categories. If a majority of a top-20 hitter's value is coming from a career-high batting average that's backed by a career-low xBA, trouble might be coming. Conversely, if a big-name player is doing fine in every category but has an overall value that's being tanked by a batting average with a career-low BABIP behind it, he's likely a good target for those looking for a batting average boost, as well as overall value.
Make it easy to say "Yes!"
Is there anything worse than getting a trade offer where it's clear that they didn't consider your team's roster construction? Maybe they want to trade for your third baseman without sending one back but fail to take into account that your only other option to put at third is a subpar player at the back of your bench, or perhaps a muli-eligible player at another position that would also then need to be replaced with a weaker option. Or even, worse, getting an offer that leaves you completely bare at a position?
The better offer makes it clear that accepting won't put the other party in a bind. Not that your partner needs every positional switch pointed out (it's their team, after all) but there are spots where it can be advantageous to highlight aspects of how their team would be set up if they accepted. A good example of this is when you're asking for a bigger name player at a position that your partner is particularly flush at because they hit on some later draft picks, got an early waiver-wire breakout, etc. Yes, you can find discounts on a surplus, but the bigger value-add for me is simply that you're just more likely to get a yes. IE. It's easier to say yes to trading Jazz Chisholm if you also have Jeremy Pena and Jeff McNeil.
Set yourself up for easy wins.
As we get closer to the trade deadline, the standings will let you know how desperate you need to be to improve a particular category. It's too early in June to make a panic trade to improve just one category at the expense of the whole. That's why, right now, we'll be focusing on players that aren't one (or two) trick ponies. While not as sexy, a trade that works out because you were betting on smaller improvements in multiple categories can be just as beneficial as acquiring someone that blows up in one category.
You can also set yourself up for a win by looking for overall value while also attacking players that seem very likely to improve in a particular category. I find ratio (AVG, ERA, etc) improvements to be the easier ones to bet on as they have a variety of underlying metrics that might be screaming about positive regression coming. There are no guarantees in baseball, but if, for example, a player is running a BABIP 75-points below his recent career average and has an xBA that's 75-points below his batting average, I'll be more willing to bet that an improvement in AVG is coming. And when you're extra confident of an improvement in a particular category, you're helping to stack the deck in regards to returning a positive overall value.
Don't neglect addition by subtraction.
You can improve your team directly by acquiring a player that helps you (whether overall, or in a particular category) but don't forget about the passive value that can be gained from whom you trade away. That's not to say that you should try and pawn your junk off on your unsuspecting competition, trying to swap a poo-poo platter for someone significant. Don't be that player. No one likes them or their stinky offers.
However, if you can swap in players you believe have positive regression coming for players you believe are due for negative regression, your chances of coming out ahead can dramatically increase. Yes, it's a good idea to trade players who are going to be better for players who are going to be worse. What a breakthrough, am I right? Not really, but I do think there are advantages to be gained when focusing a bit on the micro of an individual category when looking at who to trade away.
Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Preseason ADP Rank: Hitter #37, Season to date rank: Hitter #83
2022: 190 PA - 4 HR - 27 R - 19 RBI - 4 SB - .270 AVG
Why They Might Sell:
For one, Franco is currently on the IL with a variety of nagging lower body injuries but is driven by discomfort in his right quadriceps. While the injuries were serious enough for an IL trip, they aren't expected to be long-lasting with Franco already speaking of feeling better. His absence might only compound any frustrations for those that are rostering him and might be feeling with a stat-line that hasn't justified his top-50 draft price.
Why You Should Buy:
Batting Average
This is a simple one and is evergreen. Wander Franco is absolutely not a .270 AVG hitter. He never has been and never will be – at least not for a decade or two. Franco never finished below a .313 AVG in the minors and laced a nice little .288 AVG in his first half-season of the big leagues in 2021.
Given the previous pedigree of his hit-stick, it's already a good idea to just bet on the batting average turning around once Franco returns from the IL but his underlying metrics make it seem even more likely. His .270 AVG in 2022 is backed by a .306 xBA and Franco's .282 BABIP is 30-pts lower than what he posted in 2021, after a minor league career where he never dipped below a .318 BABIP. Even if all of his other production stays the same, Franco would see a large increase in value just by getting his batting average back up to the .290 - .300 AVG level, making any other improvements pure gravy. And I love gravy.
Call it presumptuous, but I'm assuming Wander Franco will soon be back to hitting around a .300 AVG while continuing to collect piles of runs scored. Those two categories alone give him a high enough floor to make him a low-risk, high-ceiling trade target. Given lingering concerns about how much he'll ultimately contribute in HR and SB (even though his rate of both was already beating projections before his injury), fantasy managers might be looking for a ship out. Take advantage.
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
Pre-Season ADP Rank: OF 22, 2022 Rank: OF 28
2022: 227 PA - 5 HR - 33 R - 21 RBI - 7 SB - .224 AVG
Why They Might Sell
Yelich's overall value hasn't been atrocious, but it may not seem that way to those rostering him as his value is propped up the seven SB that might not necessarily seem sustainable. His 31 runs are well above average but five HR and 21 RBI are average at best, and a .218 AVG is an anchor.
Why You Should Buy
Batting Average
Banking on improvement to his .218 AVG seems like an easy win. Yelich's batting average has been way down since the .301 AVG he ran from 2013 to 2019, posting a .205 AVG in a pandemic-shortened 2020, and a .248 AVG in an injury-shortened 2021.
Yelich still averaged a .327 BABIP over the three years before this season but is currently only running a .279 BABIP in 2022. In addition to the 50-pt BABIP deficit, his batting average also has a 50-pt gap with his .268 xBA which speaks to Yelich's exit velocities and launch angles deserving a better fate. While average exit velocity isn't very useful regarding power, it can be a good predictor of future BABIP and Yelich is currently in the 93rd-percentile.
Banking on a return to his .300 AVG of days past seems foolish, but a .250 AVG doesn't seem too far-fetched and that level of improvement would provide a big buffer to the chances of contributing positive overall value.
Home Runs
An improvement in batting average is an easier bet but a return to more power is what would make trading for Yelich turn into a home run. At only 5 HR in 227 PA, Yelich's rate of .022 HR per PA in 2022 doesn't inspire much confidence for improvement, as it's not much better than the .019 HR/PA he ran in 2021 and is again a far cry from .049 HR/PA in 2020, let alone his .076 HR/PA in 2019.
However, there are indications in some key exit velocities that Yelich could be in for a summer of home runs as the warmer weather starts to lessen the effects of the league-wide use of humidors that have turned the baseball into a virtual sponge.
Barrels per batted ball is one of the best predictors of power and Yelich's 12.1% Brl% is in the 84th percentile in 2022, up from the 51st percentile in 2021. Even better, 100% of that 12.1 Brl% is from barrels hit at 100 mph or greater, compared to 6.9% in 2021. While not at the 15.5% rate that he posted in 2019, it is right in line with a 12.1% in 2020 and 12.5% in 2018.
Much like his batting average, don't bank on a return to the highs of 2019. However, Yelich's underlying power metrics point to home run rates closer to what we saw in 2018 and 2020 more so than the severe power outage we've seen since the start of 2021.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Preseason ADP Rank: Hitter #88, Season to date rank: Hitter #258
2022: 154 PA - 4 HR - 14 R - 17 RBI - 0 SB - .189 AVG
Why They Might Sell:
Besides the fact that he's basically been a complete bust? Even discounting the three weeks he missed while recovering from COVID, Votto has been a massive net negative in every category and may even be sitting on the wire in some leagues. Even in leagues where he's rostered, acquiring him shouldn't come at too high of a cost. Just be aware that the window for buying low might quickly be closing.
Why You Should Buy:
For one (and the reason the aforementioned buying-low window is getting smaller), we've already seen the start of a Votto-ssance since he returned from the COVID-IL on May 20. Over his 64 PA since, Votto is slashing .283/.406/.679, with 4 HR and a .456 wOBA. Make that 5 HR because he literally hit a 3-run HR against the Diamondbacks while I was typing this. Even with this boosted performance as of late, it'll probably still take people a while to come around to this being closer to his real level, just as it took the fantasy world seemingly forever to believe in his continued production from 2021.
Batting Average
This is another spot to weight the trade dice by betting on a batting average bounceback. Because while we'd be foolish to bet on a return to prime-Votto averages, I simply refuse to believe that he'll stay a sub-.200 AVG player for too long. That's just not going to happen and not just because of prior history, but also because of a .241 BABIP in 2022 that is 50-pts lower than his three-year average and an xBA that is 25-pts higher. Remember, you don't need a .280 AVG to get value – anything around a .250 AVG rest-of-season will set you up for an overall profit.
Home Runs
Votto's top-end exit velocities aren't what they were in 2021 but they also haven't suffered massive drop-offs and are still better than what he was running from 2018 to 2020. His 11.5% Brl% isn't in the 97th percentile like it was in 2021, but the 82nd percentile is much higher than in 2018-2020 when it was between the 49th and 58th percentile. The story is similar in regards to an Air% average EV (78th percentile) that has dropped from last season (98th) but is much higher than the previous three seasons (55th, 25th, 50th). The drop-off is even less with his Air% (100+ mph), with Votto's 86th percentile only slightly down from the 92nd percentile in 2021 and far beyond the 54th in 2020, 19th in 2019, and 24th in 2018.
Keep in mind that the exit velocities from above are from the entire year. When we look at what he's done since returning from the IL, his surge in performance makes even more sense. Since returning on May 20, Votto has a 16.7% Brl% (16.9% in 2021), an average EV Air% of 97.7 mph (97.7 mph in 2021), and an Air% (100+ mph) of 50.0% (45.7% in 2021).
Putting the exit velocities aside, Votto is also looking a lot more locked in on his launch angles. Looking at his launch angles before and after his IL stint, you can see that the slice where a majority of his hits are coming from has increased significantly. Also, notice that even his outs (in gray) are being hit better. That is, they're now being hit at angles more conducive for power, as opposed to getting pounded into the ground.
The launch angles and exit velocities are screaming that this most recent version of Votto is hitting the ball much as he did in 2021 and history tells us the home runs are sure to follow.
We should listen.
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