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Power Hitting Risers & Fallers for Week 21 - Buy or Sell?

Home run risers and fallers for Week 21 of fantasy baseball. Nate Green evaluates power increases or decreases, and players who could be buy or sell candidates.

As with last week, the focus will be on the full season numbers. Not much else to say, so let's jump in.

Weekly reminders: EVAB (pronounced ee-vab or ev-ab) is simply exit velocity on "air balls" - meaning fly balls and line drives, as shown on Statcast. Isolated power -- ISO -- is slugging percentage minus batting average, and so xISO is xSLG minus xBA. The Statcast Search feature is used to obtain partial season Statcast numbers. The league-wide ratio of barrels to home runs is historically around 67-70%.

Now, for this week's risers and fallers. Stats are through August 19 unless otherwise noted.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers

Aristides Aquino (OF, CIN)

There was a beer commercial several years back where a tailgating cook threw a quinoa burger on the grill for good luck. Asked what it was, and having only seen the name of the grain on the package, he thought to himself: "it's a queen-o." I think of this commercial every time I see the name Aristides Aquino. (It's Aquino!)

Aquino has been no dirty old tree branch (how our ad's hero described the taste of a quinoa burger), with 19 hits in 18 games and a whopping 11 of them being homers, producing a .317/.388/.883 slash line. With 16 strikeouts in 67 plate appearances, his 23.9% K rate suggests more sustainability than was enjoyed by fellow rookie Austin Riley earlier this season. He has managed a .668 xSLG despite an average exit velocity of just 86.5 mph.

What has helped is an average elevation of 19.0 degrees and 10 barreled baseballs. So while Aquino's contact hasn't quite been as good as the numbers would suggest, it's been plenty fine. The relatively low strikeout rate is a reason for optimism as well. No one hits a home run in 60% of their games, and the sample size is still very small, but the early returns on Aquino are good.

 

Mike Yastrzemski (OF, SF)

The three home runs that Son of Son of Carl hit on August 16 gave him six in nine days, 11 since the All-Star Break, and brought his season home run total to 16. Not bad for a lefty who calls AT&T Oracle Park home; since Barry Bonds retired after the 2007 season, no left-handed Giant has hit more than 26 home runs in a season (Aubrey Huff in 2010). Yastrzemski will need to stay really hot to break that mark, but only four more homers would make him just the third Giants' lefty to hit 20 homers in that period (Brandon Crawford, with 21 in 2015, is the only other one so far). Of Yastrzemski's 16 homers, 10 have come on the road.

Yastrzemski makes okay power contact: 88.6 mph at 17.8 degrees for 20 barrels and a .478 xSLG. That is still well short of his .548 SLG. In the second half alone, he has slugged .662 on a .574 xSLG. It has not been the result of a significantly changed launch angle -- 18.5 degrees -- and so whether the newfound success continues will be interesting to see.

San Francisco has a fairly balanced remaining home/road schedule, so the conclusion to Yastrzemski's season will be largely up to him. He looks to have the makings of a surprisingly solid power hitter, but not a revolutionary one unless this second half run continues. It's up to the pitchers to figure him out because what he's doing right now is working.

 

Jorge Soler (OF, KC)

Soler has become a truly dangerous hitter, with a double-digit walk rate and now 35 home runs in 522 plate appearances this season. With six of them from August 6-11, he had Yastrzemski's homer spate beat by three days.

The contact has been no fluke. Soler has cracked a 90 mph exit velocity for the first time since 2019, doing so with a 92.7 average on a 14.5 degree launch angle. He has 52 barrels with a 96.9 mph EVAB. His .557 xSLG is actually a few points above his .545 SLG. All of these except the launch angle make for easy career highs.

Not only is Soler outperforming his past self, but he's also outperforming most MLB hitters, tied with Cody Bellinger for the fifth-most barrels in the Majors. Soler hasn't homered since August 11, but these things always come in bunches and lulls. He's one of the premier power hitters today.

 

Kyle Seager (3B, SEA)

Seager followed up his three-homer game on August 13 with another home run on the 17th and 18th. A .327/.393/.745 August has seen his season slash line rise.

Unfortunately, it's been a relatively weak hot month thanks to a .508 xSLG and just four barrels to support the seven home runs. He's also hit the ball less hard (85.7 mph) and less high (14.6 degrees) in August than on the season as a whole (89.7 mph at 19.7 degrees).

So it appears that despite the strong three weeks to begin August, Seager is mostly the same hitter he always has been, the type who ends up with 20-some home runs every year rather than the one on a 162-game pace of 39 this season.

 

Juan Soto (OF, WSH)

Juan Soto was having a solid sophomore campaign, which at age 20 was already impressive enough. But he's gone nuts lately, with 11 home runs in his last 19 games, bringing his season total to 28.

The effect this has had on his overall season is dramatic. He is now producing a .543 xSLG on average contact of 90.6 mph at 12.1 degrees. All three of those numbers are improvements on his rookie campaign, as are 38 barrels.

Like other former Washington teenage phenom Bryce Harper, Soto has only improved in his second season. Unlike Harper (even when he was 20), Soto has shown an ability to stay healthy. Even if he just plateaus from here, he will be a reliable 30 home run hitter for years to come.

 

Power Fallers

Tim Anderson (SS, CHW)

Tim Anderson returned from a sprained right ankle on July 29. Despite hitting .369 since, he has only homered once (until Tuesday), coming on August 4. He has also cut down on his strikeout rate, at 17.0% in 88 PA since his return, although he still doesn't walk.

From July 29-August 19, Anderson averaged 89.3 mph at 6.2 degrees. The launch angle helps to explain the lack of home runs, although on the season Anderson's mark is 8.5 degrees. It's part of the reason he only had 14 barrels to support the 13 home runs through Monday. And when Anderson does elevate, his 91.3 mph EVAB is nothing to write home about.

It's still a breakout year for Anderson, with a career-high .444 xSLG. But that pales in comparison to his .504 SLG. Although Anderson has set a 162-game pace of 22 home runs, he should not be expected to keep that up in 2020.

 

Manny Machado (3B, SD)

Machado has had one of the streakier seasons this year, making several appearances in both sections of this column. He is currently on a downswing, going all of August so far without a home run while hitting a putrid .186/.240/.214.

Strikeouts continue to be a problem with a 21.3% rate in the month that is pretty good for a lot of players in 2019, but not the fellow with a 16.8% career rate. As a result, Machado's xSLG continues to lag. It currently sits at .444, his lowest ever after three straight seasons above .500. It doesn't help that when he does make contact, the 90.8 mph at 13.2 degrees are both slight declines from last season.

If this weren't Manny Machado, you'd take the 26 home runs and be happy. Since it is Manny Machado, the inconsistency is maddening. But there is no choice but to keep using him and hope the next positive streak is coming soon.

 

Daniel Murphy (1B, COL)

Murphy's no-homer streak dates back to July 27, and he's hitting .250/.297/.309 in that time. It's been somewhat of a lost season for the 34-year-old, whose .282/.331/.457 line is good only for an 87 wRC+ thanks to Coors Field. Only two of his home runs have come at Coors, although his batting average is 107 points higher at home.

Statcast-wise, everything is going badly. Murphy, whose 2015 postseason performance was in a way the start of the launch angle revolution, still hits the ball at a good angle, 15.3 degrees. But his exit velocity is just 86.3 mph, his xSLG is a rough .348, and perhaps most concerning, he has only barreled up eight baseballs this season.

Given the barrel rate and xSLG, Murphy's 11 home runs and .457 SLG are a fluke -- they should probably be lower based on his contact quality. It's difficult to foresee a turnaround at Murphy's age and considering just how hard a time he's had making good contact as it is.

 

Travis D'Arnaud (C, TB)

Remember Travis d'Arnaud's three-home run game against the Yankees? It occurred on July 15. They weren't the flukiest home runs, but none were no-doubters, with hit probabilities of 70, 70, and 16 percent. D'Arnaud hit three more home runs to round out his July, but has been ice cold in August: .191/.291/.234 and no bombs.

Despite the fluke-ish three-homer day and the struggles in August, it's been relatively solid contact backing the 13-home run campaign for d'Arnaud, a .451 xSLG behind the .476 SLG, 89.7 mph average exit velocity at 13.5 degrees. You will take this from a catcher.

Given the currency of his slump, he's not completely out of the woods, but there are worse backstops out there. Like the next one.

 

Pedro Severino (C, BAL)

Severino was a nice surprise for most of the season, hitting .279/.345/.477 as recently as July 27. Since then, he's hitting just .140/.260/.163. He is hitting the ball extremely high during this period, 23.8 degrees on average, and that combined with 16 strikeouts in 50 PA is not helping his cause.

One would guess that pitchers have simply adjusted, but Severino's six walks in 50 PA in this rut are somewhat interesting. They are counterbalanced by the 16 strikeouts, but it's not as if Severino is just swinging at everything pitchers offer and coming up empty.

Nonetheless, Severino entered this season a career .187/.273/.287 hitter, so it shouldn't be shocking to see his carriage turn into an Oriole-colored pumpkin. It will be difficult to rely on him even in two-catcher leagues at this point in the season.

 

Last Week's Risers

Player Last Week Update (8/6-12)
Giovanny Urshela .333/.333/.333 is no cause for concern yet
Mike Tauchman Unsurprising slowdown in form of .143/.200/.143
Ronald Acuna .222/.300/.389 with another HR
Hunter Dozier Still hot .412/.450/.529 but no HR
Carlos Correa 2-for-17 but they were both HR; unfortunately, another injury may put him back on shelf

 

Last Week's Fallers

Player Last Week Update (8/6-12)
Buster Posey .308/.400/.385, 0 HR, 1 K, 2 BB is the kind of hitting Posey will give you now
Christian Walker .100/.182/.250 with another HR
Corey Seager Bat has woken up, .250/.318/.650 with 2 HR
Aaron Judge .235/.278/.353 with 50% strikeouts is hopefully not pressing
Mark Canha .412/.444/.588 and another HR (then another Tuesday)

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Max Fried

Exits Start With Blister
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Hunter Dobbins

to Miss Rest of Season With Torn ACL
Nolan Arenado

Held Out of Lineup on Saturday
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Carlos Correa

Sitting on Saturday
Austin Riley

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Nolan Arenado

Exits Friday's Contest With Sprained Finger
Jake Burger

Expects to Play on Saturday
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Wyatt Langford

Records Four-Hit Night
Cal Raleigh

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Cody Bellinger

Swats Three Homers in Victory
Jake Burger

Leaves With Quad Discomfort on Friday
Carlos Correa

Exits Game With Mild Ankle Sprain
Edward Cabrera

Dealing with Posterior Elbow Discomfort
Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
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