X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Potential First Base ADP Busts for 2017

We’re continuing our Positional Avoid series today with a look at first basemen. Earlier, we examined three potential busts at catcher.

As the days in March go by, we are getting closer and closer to the witching hour. The time in which you must determine who is fit for your team and who you don’t mind squaring off against each week.

Earlier this week we took a look at three catchers to avoid in your 2017 drafts. Today we will look at three first basemen to avoid at their current ADP prices.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Potential Overvalued First Base Candidates

Wil Myers (seventh in RotoBaller 1B ranks; ADP of 58 in NFBC)

Myers, similar to Wilson Contreras in our Catchers to Avoid post, has a lot to like on the surface. Myers was an elite prospect for several years and is coming off a season in which he hit 28 HR and had 28 SB. The only other player to reach 28 in both categories last season? Mike Trout. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. Before Trout in 2016, no player had reached 28 HR and 28 SB in the same season since 2012.

So why are we avoiding Myers? A couple reasons. For one, despite the excellent numbers, 2016 was the first truly great season from Myers. Prior to last season, Myers didn’t have a single season in which he played at least 100 major league games. Most often this was due to injuries, although his .222/.294/.320 slash line in 2014 meant a brief stint in the minors was necessary. Myers also had never stolen more than 12 bases in a season in his career before 2016, and to even get to 12, we had to combine his major league and minor league steals in 2013. The Padres love to run, but most projection systems see Myers losing somewhere in the range of 10 SB this season - that can be a huge difference.

Then we get to the matter of Myer’s HR total from 2016. Again, prior to 2016, Myers’ career-high in HR came in a season where we have to combine his minor league and major league numbers. In 2013, Myers did hit a combined 27 HR, but those 14 minor league long balls obviously come with an asterisk. It a lot easier to take Joe Triple-A deep at some random stadium in Glendale then it is to take Clayton Kershaw deep at Petco Park. Myers’ increased HR total came in part to simply staying healthy but also thanks to a career-high HR/FB rate (18.7 percent compared to a 14.5 percent career rate). That jump came despite posting a hard hit ball rate (33.6 percent) lower than his career rate (34.5 percent).

I believe in Myers’ power more than his speed, but could still see a drop down to the 22-24 range in 2017 and that’s if he stays healthy. That’s the biggest catch for me. The unproven nature of Myers’ health, along with the fact that he’s due for some slight regression in terms of production, is enough to stay away in 2017.

 

Hanley Ramirez (11th in RotoBaller 1B ranks; ADP of 84 in NFBC)

The story is much the same with Ramirez. Han-Ram is coming off a monster season in which he posted 30 HR, 81 R, 111 RBI, 9 SB, and a .286 BA. All that production made him ninth-rated first baseman in 2016, according to the ESPN Player Rater. Despite that almost certainly being a high-water potential for 2017, the rankings have him ranked right around that tier of first basemen once again. Ramirez has played more than 130 games only once in the past four seasons, and even last year he missed 15 games. Ramirez managed to be mighty productive in those 147 games, but even that production has a few question marks behind it.

Ramirez posted his lowest line drive rate (18.8 percent) of the past four years in 2016, but had a higher BA than either 2015 or 2014. Ramirez also posted his highest HR/FB rate of his career, a rarity for a 32-year-old in the modern game. Now the increased HR/FB rate was backed up by an excellent 37.2 percent hard hit ball rate, but the question of whether Ramirez can maintain a high hard hit ball rate that lofty is just as relevant as whether the results were legitimate in 2016. Of the three first baseman listed here, Ramirez is the one I’m at closest to “not avoiding,” but the health issues just scare me too much. At a position like first base, where you need legitimate production, guys like Myers and Ramirez who have such health concerns are more worrisome than a Devon Travis-type at second base, where the dropoff in production will be less noticeable for your team. I’d much rather take Kendrys Morales six rounds later and get similar production with only slightly less flexibility.

 

Eric Hosmer (15th in RotoBaller 1B ranks; ADP of 103 in NFBC)

The folks at RotoBaller are cooler on Hosmer than the industry average and this is the correct idea. Hosmer is coming off a career-high in HR and RBI, but you can get a sense by now, that’s not the time you want to buy on these players. In an ideal world, you draft each player the season before their breakout instead of the season after.

Hosmer has all the markings of a player just after his breakout (and headed the other way). Taking a look at Hosmer’s batted ball profile from 2015-2016 shows a disturbing trend. Hosmer posted one of the lowest fly ball rates in baseball in 2015 a stat that actually had some in the industry saying Hosmer could provide some value if he simply focused on tweaking his launch angle to hit a few more fly balls (and thus a few more HR). Instead, Hosmer posted nearly the exact same fly ball rate (24.4 percent in 2015 and 24.7 percent in 2016) while trading in seven points of line drive rate (23.6 percent to 16.5 percent) directly into more ground balls (52.0 percent to 58.9 percent). That’s not the direction we all had hoped for.

Now Hosmer was able to tally a career-high 25 HR thanks to a 21.4 percent HR/FB rate, but given that his career HR/FB rate is 13.4 percent, that figure is due for some regression. If you draft Hosmer, you get the good feeling of a player who will almost certainly play the entire season and won’t kill you in BA. His BA is likely to bounceback around the .280 range if he cuts down on those grounders a bit and hitting every day in the middle of the Kansas City lineup will mean some decent R and RBI totals. There’s just no real ceiling on Hosmer. Given some of the names being taken in the same area (Miguel Sano, Carlos Santana), there’s a lot more production to be added to your team if you go a different route than the rather pedestrian Hosmer.

 

More Potential Overvalued Draft Picks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Lamar Jackson

Throws for Four Touchdowns in Week 2 Win
James Cook

Scores Two Touchdowns in Rout of Jets
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Rome Odunze

Scores Twice in Loss
Ja'Marr Chase

Snags 14 Receptions, Finds End Zone in Week 2
Russell Wilson

Throws for 450 Yards, Three Touchdowns in Loss
Jared Goff

Throws Five Touchdowns
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Scores Three Touchdowns
Joe Burrow

Suffers Turf Toe and Torn Ligaments in Win
Malik Nabers

Explodes for Two Touchdowns in Overtime Thriller
Joe Burrow

Seen with Boot and Crutches Postgame
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Ryan Preece

Seems Slower on Concrete Than on Asphalt
NASCAR

Legacy Motor Club's Short-Track Speed Will Likely Hold John H. Nemechek Back
Erik Jones

Definitely Faster This Year, but Short Tracks Still a Liability
Daniel Suarez

Despite Poor Qualifying Run, Daniel Suarez Might Not Be a Great Choice
Noah Gragson

Unlikely to Be Fast at Bristol but Still Might Be Worth Considering for DFS
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
Tarik Skubal

Exits with Side Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
Ketel Marte

Scratched From Friday's Lineup
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Alexander Hernandez

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP