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Tyler Mahle 2021 Player Outlook: Rising Starter Limited Only by Generosity
4 years agoCincinnati Reds starting pitcher Tyler Mahle continues his progression and is ready to be a mainstay in your fantasy rotation. He maximized every opportunity in the shortened 2020 and provided 47 innings of 3.59 ERA (3.88 FIP) and 1.15 WHIP with nine starts. Mahle was also in the 90th percentile with his .188 xBA and generated 33% Chase and 14% Swinging Strike rates. A change in his pitch mix led to most of his success. Mahle dropped the cutter he used in 2019 for the slider he employed in 2018; it was a smart move as it generated a 37% strikeout rate. While that all sounds rosy, we must point out that there will be a little correction of his BABIP (.255) and that he needs to keep his generosity in check. Mahle walked 10.4% of batters which drags down the excitement of his 30% strikeout rate. It is also quite risky to employ a 50% fly ball strategy if you call Great American Ball Park your home. There's no question Mahle has made great strides thus far. If he can limit the walks and keep the ball in the yard at a respectable level, he'll provide plenty of value, even at his current ADP of 174. It might be smart to make sure you've already rostered a couple of quality foundational starters before he joins your staff.
