RADIO
Tanner Roark 2019 Outlook: New Home Hurts Already-Diminished Value
6 years agoPerhaps Tanner Roark’s 16 wins and 2.83 ERA over 210 innings helped you win a league…in 2016. Unfortunately, those days are long gone. Roark was always somewhat of a fantasy risk due to never striking out many batters. And in 2018, Roark only struck out 19.2% of batters faced, his lowest rate since 2015. He’s now posted ERA’s of 4.67 and 4.34 in the past two seasons. His xFIP in 2018 was a career-worst 4.42. He lost 0.7 mph of fastball velocity from 2017 to ’18. The BABIP Roark relied on in 2014 and ’16 (.270 and .269)? A very normal .300 and .296 the past two years. So, even with the Nationals, Roark’s stock has taken a big hit the last couple seasons. Now, take those struggles to Cincinnati’s hitter haven, with a worse team to back him up: Roark’s numbers are bound to get worse. Even if he finds some improvements—which, at 32, with velocity that was never impressive and now could be declining, is quite unlikely—he could end up with less fantasy value. As his 378 ADP indicates, Roark can be safely left alone on draft day.
