March 5, 2025
Early in his career, the Arnold Palmer Invitational looked like a place itching to award Tommy Fleetwood his first victory on American soil. However, after eight attempts, things have begun to go sideways for the English golfer at Bay Hill in recent years, having shot a second-round 80 last year and being only one of 11 players to miss the cut. 2025 has started well for the 34-year-old, and his most recent T5 finish at the Genesis certainly piques the interest of many DFS players wondering if it's time to jump back on the Fleetwood-Bay Hill bandwagon. Considering that his bad time last year was from losing over four strokes on approach in the two rounds played and the fact that he's currently leading the PGA Tour this season in that same metric (+1.178), the tides certainly seem to be changing. Start Fleetwood with confidence.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 5, 2025
There aren't many players making the start this week who're playing as well as Michael Kim. The 31-year-old has continuously been in contention in his last four starts, gaining over 12 strokes on approach and over 10 strokes around the greens during that span. That has propelled him to a seventh-place ranking on the season in strokes gained tee to green (+1.228). If that trend continues, there are very few places on Tour where he won't find success. Everything is clicking right now, and until the train loses momentum, there is no reason to get off.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
March 5, 2025
After a ho-hum finish at Kapalua to start the year, the golf game has been on the shelf for Xander Schauffele as the reigning PGA and Open Champion has been dealing with a nagging rib injury ever since. Forcing him to miss playing some personally meaningful tournaments, like the two events at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach. It's impossible to dismiss someone of Schauffele's pedigree, but a slow start to ease back into the swing of things would be completely understandable. He's never performed that well at Bay Hill to begin with, averaging -0.119 strokes gained on approach and -0.070 in strokes gained around the green over his last 12 rounds. Both should be equally important this week and will give us a sense of what/how much he's been able to practice during his time off. At $12,000 on FanDuel, the X-man is too expensive to take a chance on until we see where his game is.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 5, 2025
Sepp Straka is a golfer that can be hot when his form is on. The Austrian golfer bounced back from a rough time at The Genesis Invitational last week. At PGA National in Florida, Straka fell out of the Top 10 late but finished T-11 behind a 70. This was after three rounds of 67. A few errant shots and putts did not go Straka's way. Bay Hill penalizes more for errant tee shots and irons so Straka will need to avoid mistakes this week. At Torrey Pines, he did not and paid dearly. Straka ranks inside the Top 10 in some models when combining birdie potential, strokes gained on approach and strokes gained in Florida. Ranking 11th in 2025 in approach to green at 0.867 strokes gained could make him a nice Top 5 or Top 10 betting option this week.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 5, 2025
For a tournament with such a knack for producing leaderboards full of top PGA Tour talent, it has been surprising to see Collin Morikawa struggle in most of his appearances. However, all of it can be linked back to his consistent loss of strokes with his putter and short game. In four career starts, the 28-year-old has averaged -0.758 in strokes gained around the green and -0.706 in strokes gained putting. That certainly won't get things done against the game's best players. Given his hot start to the season, there is optimism that this year's tournament will yield better results, and his talent level undoubtedly deserves it. At $11,400 on FanDuel, using Morikawa or not should realistically come down to ownership projections. The higher it is, the more worrisome his clear uncomfortableness around this property becomes less worth the risk.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
March 5, 2025
Justin Rose played really well at Pebble Beach in mostly pristine conditions. The English golfer had a much rougher time contending with Torrey Pines and missed the cut twice along the way. Bay Hill can show its teeth at any time. The 11-time PGA Tour winner is 44 not 34 anymore and the long 7,468-yard course might be a little too lengthy. Rose has shown an inability to keep his irons in play and ranks 146th off the tee and 150th approaching the green in 2025. 2024 was equally bad (119th and 157th). When the conditions got somewhat rough last year, Rose withered and shot a 77 to miss the cut. Breezy conditions are expected Thursday which makes the odds to miss the cut again for Rose intriguing.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 5, 2025
Maverick McNealy has had quite the nice start to 2025. The American golfer has three Top 10 results in six events. That includes nearly winning The Genesis Invitational a few weeks ago. McNealy got better each day at the second go with Torrey Pines. This culminated in a Sunday 64 which nearly got him into the win column. That surge pushed his numbers as high as +4500 via DraftKings. McNealy does not fare well in the model rankings and course comparables at Bay Hill. However, the first 24 rounds of 2025 give him a helping hand. Strokes gained overall (1.253) ranks 14th and total birdies (115) rank 6th. If the course plays less windy than expected on Thursday and Sunday, McNealy could be a decent Top 10 or 20 betting option again.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 5, 2025
Shane Lowry keeps getting lots of positive press heading into the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. The Irish golfer likes long but tough golf courses. Bay Hill is almost 7,500 yards in length and has some nasty rough. In breezy conditions, the course can play several strokes above average. The 2019 Open Championship winner only has three PGA Tour wins in his career. However, Lowry figured out something last year at the course and finished third. At PGA National, the golfer almost snagged a Top 10 (T-11) and gained five strokes on approach (5.04) over the weekend. The concern is can he put at least three such rounds together. If he comes close, Lowry can contend and maybe surprise the signature field at Bay Hill.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 5, 2025
Sungjae Im has played four rounds in the last two events. The South Korean golfer missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational then could not make enough birdies at PGA National last week. Im has bouts of troubling play like this throughout his almost decade on the PGA Tour. After two missed cuts last year, Im had six Top 10 results between April and The Open Championship. Im ranks sixth in comparable course rankings. Last week, he was outside the Top 25. Bay Hill represents some comfort for Im. With breezy conditions (15-20mph plus gusts) expected Thursday and possibly late Sunday, Im could get helped if scores are lower than expected. At +4000, he may be worth a look via DraftKings and FanDuel.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 5, 2025
While Jacob Bridgeman had an outstanding performance at the Cognizant Classic this past week, the Arnold Palmer presents an entirely different test. With a 7,460-yard layout at Bay Hill, players will be tested on keeping the ball in the fairway and playing long irons. Bridgeman has struggled driving the ball this year, ranking 148th on tour. However, he makes up for this with his approach, putting, and scrambling abilities, where he ranks 70th, 15th, and 14th. He has also faired well at Par 5s, ranking 44th in Par 5 scoring average. With four of those at Bay Hill, it's not farfetched to assume he can post good scores on those holes. He's not a surefire start, but he's an interesting player in DFS formats this week.
--Jake Walker - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour Stats Page
March 5, 2025
Joe Highsmith has shown excellent form the past two events. The American golfer sealed the deal on Sunday at PGA National taking home the Cognizant Classic with a four round score of 265. That included back-to-back rounds of 64. Other than the second round of 72, Highsmith was on the greens with regularity and made putts early and often. The back nine helped the golfer gain on the field as he went -4 on Saturday and Sunday. Bay Hill represents a step further up for the young Highsmith. No one quite knows what to expect including the sport betting sites. Highsmith stands as a +12000 longshot on DraftKings. He projected at higher prices on DFS sites as well.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 5, 2025
Max Greyserman has put together a solid showing in 2025. He has made the cut in every event he's finished, has four top-25 finishes, and has finished 11th or better twice, most recently in last week's Cognizant Classic. This week, the most defining factor at the Arnold Palmer Invitational will be precision off the tee and precise long iron play. Greyserman is below average at gaining strokes off the tee with a -0.087 mark, which ranks 116th on tour. Additionally, his approaches from 150-175 yards rank 138th, and 175-200 rank 91st, respectively. His putting is above average at 0.215 strokes gained, ranking 69th, and could play well on the bermuda grass. Nonetheless, the driving inconsistencies make him hard to trust this week in DFS.
--Jake Walker - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour Stats Page
March 5, 2025
Davis Thompson has been very inconsistent thus far in 2025. Coming into this week, Thompson has failed to crack a 36th-place finish in every event besides the Genesis Invitational, where he finished T-13. He failed to make the cut in the most recent event, the Cognizant Classic. The main focus for players to succeed this week at Bay Hill is precision off the tee and long iron approach shots with a 7,460-yard layout. On top of that, winds are projected to reach 20 mph. While Thompson is 11th in strokes gained off the tee, his approach to the green ranks a below-average 146th on tour, and his 142nd ranking in strokes gained putting. It's best to steer away from him this week in DFS formats.
--Jake Walker - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour Stats Page
March 5, 2025
Tony Finau has been playing some very good golf over the past two events. The American golfer struck back at Pebble Beach ending up T-13. At The Genesis Invitational, Finau had a bad day with his putter, shot making, and wound up shooting a 76. After that, he was arguably the best golfer on the course. His final round 68 vaulted him into the Top 5 and placed him in the conversation at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Off the tee is troubling with Finau. Driving the ball well and very accurate helps at Bay Hill. Finau ranks 142nd at driving distance (296.5 yards) and only 86th in driving accuracy (59.09%). A slower start and faster finish would surprise few here. Finau might be a weekend DFS choice at Bay Hill.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
March 5, 2025
Cam Davis has an interesting 2025 heading into the Arnold Palmer Invitational to consider. The Australian golfer has three results inside the Top 20 and even a Top 5. However, he missed two cuts and missed badly at The Genesis Invitational a few weeks back. Davis won twice on the PGA Tour (both times at the Rocket Mortgage Classic). Davis has two nice things going for him in 2025. Strokes gained to putting and approach to the green have been good (Approach ranks 21st at 0.588). Overall, Davis ranks 30th in the entire metric. However, the course fit and comparable courses see Davis come in outside the Top 10 or 15 in most every case. His birdie average and Par 5 scoring average are third and second early this year though. Davis may be worth a look at +750 for a Top 10 if the weather holds.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
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