6 years agoThe past two years have not been kind to Madison Bumgarner. After missing significant time due to a shoulder injury from a dirt bike accident in 2017, a spring training comebacker broke a finger in his pitching hand and had him on the shelf until early June. Both injuries were fluke injuries and not indicative of a chronic or persistent condition. Still, you may want to avoid Bumgarner. First, the Giants head into 2019 with one of the worst offenses in MLB and little chance of outperforming their projections (e.g., Fangraphs projects 3.96 R/G, 2nd worst in the majors), so poor run support means fewer opportunities for wins. Second, Bumgarner’s performance has not been particularly impressive over the past two seasons (e.g., his BB%-K% has shrunk to an unacceptable 12%, driven by both increased BB% and decreased K%). Finally, if the Giants do trade Bumgarner mid-season, then he will lose the benefit of pitching in AT&T Park. For his career, Bumgarner has a 2.69 ERA at home and a 3.35 ERA away, mostly due to a HR% that is nearly double on the road (0.67 at home, 1.1 on road). Bumgarner will go in the Top 100 in most drafts and RotoBaller Staff ranks him at 86th overall and the 22nd SP. However, due to the factors highlighted above, this writer is more skeptical Bumgarner and believes there are higher upside arms around SP 20.--Walter Cook