January 14, 2019

Aguilar’s 2018 breakout came in part because of injuries and ineffectiveness by Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, and Eric Thames. However, Aguilar made the most of it and went from being a largely undrafted platoon player to a top-40 asset. Aguilar’s batted ball profile wasn't bad in 2017 (.347 xwOBA), but it improved significantly in 2018 (.364 xwOBA). While much of his growth resulted from a change in approach against right-handers, the additional playing time enabled him to showcase his power and earn a consistent spot where fantasy managers could capitalize on the raw potential Aguilar has demonstrated throughout his career. Steamer’s projections have Aguilar hitting a healthy 29 home runs, but with only 84 RBI and a .242 batting average. Expect him to beat those numbers and meet or outperform his ADP of 78, making him a poor man’s Khris Davis. There is some cause for concern with Aguilar's modest second half. Aguilar managed a 160 wRC+ before the all-star break but only a 101 after. If those numbers represent a difficulty in adapting to pitchers treating him as a real threat, then Aguilar's ceiling drops. However, Aguilar still had strong stretches in the second half, and he wasn't bad during that period. With a starter’s role already locked up, he should be a draft target for owners who miss out on the top tier of first basemen.--David Emerick