Jacob deGrom 2019 Outlook: Do The Numbers Lie?
6 years agoTypically, a pitcher coming off a Cy Young season would be a coveted asset in fantasy drafts the following season and more than likely Jacob deGrom will be no different in 2019. deGrom was able to notch his first Cy Young after posting a league-leading 1.70 ERA over 32 starts in 2018. deGrom was also able to toss 200 innings for a second consecutive season and his third season with at least 200 strikeouts in his first five years. The numbers seem to suggest we should trust deGrom as our ace this season, but that may not be a wise decision. Even though wins are a fluky stat and don’t accurately reflect a starting pitchers ability, fantasy owners who play in leagues that count them should know deGrom probably won’t be able to contribute to that cause often. deGrom only notched 10 wins last season and the Mets don’t appear to be in a much better position to win many more games in 2019. To grab deGrom in your drafts this season, you will likely need to spend a second-round pick on him. Unless you plan on going with a starting pitcher in back to back rounds to open your draft, you are relying on a 30-year-old who just posted career highs in WHIP, H/9, HR/9, BB/9 and K/9 to be your ace. deGrom as the SP2 on your team will be great value, but if you want to draft him, he will need to be your SP1. There seems to be too much risk in that value.