3 years agoAtlanta Braves starting pitcher Ian Anderson placed fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting in November, posting a 9-5 record with a 3.58 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 128.1 IP. His 4.12 FIP paints a different picture, though, reflecting his disappointing 23.2 K% and 9.9 BB%. His less than spectacular strikeout numbers are curious after producing a K-rate of 29.7% two seasons ago and a 28.6% mark during his minor league career. Some of that is related to his CSW%, which went from 30.3% in 2020 to 27.1% in 2021. It shouldn't come as a surprise after analyzing his arsenal, as Anderson's changeup and curveball have had below-average movement during both of his seasons in the bigs, and his fastball has only had 9th and 10th percentile spin rates in those seasons. His .261 BABIP and 15.1% HR/FB show he wasn't a result of bad luck, and after suppressing hard contact to begin his career, it took a hit in 2021, allowing a 9.5 Barrels% which led to a 4.33 xERA last year. Even if he starts inducing weak contact again, nothing signals a quick return to a strikeout contributor, and his career-long trouble with the base on balls is a reason for concern. Combine this with the fact that he's never thrown more than 143 innings in a season, and his ADP of 126 looks like a reach. There are arms with more upside and higher floors later on.--Spencer Seguin