Francisco Lindor 2023 Player Outlook: Underlying Numbers Prove The Old Lindor Isn't Back
2 years agoNew York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor bounced back in 2022 after a disappointing first season in Flushing, posting a 127 wRC+, his best mark since 2018. The 29-year-old slashed .270/.339/.449 with 26 home runs, 98 runs, 107 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. It's hard to ignore Lindor's career-high 18.8% strikeout rate, though, a season after setting a previous career-high 18.3%. His 22.9% whiff rate from this season looks poor compared to his career rate of 18.7%. Lindor was lucky to hit .270, as Statcast expected a mark of .254 after he had a 55th-percentile 89.3 MPH exit velocity and .301 BABIP. The shift ban will help the switch hitter from the left side (61.3% shift rate as a lefty, 59% pull rate on ground balls), but not enough to be a real contributor to batting average. Lindor's power numbers have seen better days, as his .427 xSLG and 54th percentile barrel rate show, along with his lowest max exit velocity (110.7 MPH) since his rookie season. Playing at Citi Field and pulling flyballs a below-average 23.9% over the last three seasons hasn't helped his home run totals either and is a trend that should continue in 2023. Steamer still projects Lindor to swipe 13 bags and garner 168 RBI plus runs, but with a .250 average and 25 home runs, he won't do enough compared to his ADP of 35.