6 years agoPerhaps the highest variance player going into 2019 is Adalberto Mondesi. The biggest questions regarding Mondesi has always been his hit tool and mastery of the strike zone. In a limited sample at the majors in 2018, Mondesi maintained an acceptable .276 BA and .306 OBP, while even adding a few more HR (14) than one might have expected. But significant questions remain about the sustainability of those numbers. Specifically, given his 4% BB% and 27% K%, Mondesi is very reliant on a high BABIP to support his BA and OBP. In 2018, a .335 BABIP yielded acceptable marks in those categories. Due to his speed and power, one can reasonably expect an above-average BABIP, but probably not quite that high (e.g., Steamer projects .307). Additionally, Mondesi saw a historically high number of stolen base opportunities in his limited 2018 (68% SBO%, second-highest since 2009). With a lower OBP and a more realistic SBO%, Mondesi’s stolen bases are probably limited to roughly 45 (assuming 600 PA). The low OBP could also mean that he hits lower in the Royals’ order, which would hurt his counting stats. Finally, his 2018 HR/FB of 20% is unsustainable given his Exit Velocity on Fly Balls, so he projects for 15-20 HR. Because of his stolen base potential, Mondesi has a top-60 ADP in standard leagues. Although given the hype from his 2018 performance, he likely will go higher in drafts.--Walter Cook