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PGA DFS: Vegas Report - Northern Trust


Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. J.T. Poston completed golf's version of the perfect game, becoming only the second player in PGA Tour history to win a tournament with no bogeys over 72 holes. Originally accomplished by Lee Trevino in 1974, Poston's magical run culminated in him earning his first career title in 77 events and presented anyone who backed him pre-tourney with a 100/1 outright victor.

The 26-year-old entered Sunday as a 35/1 longshot to take home the trophy but quickly erased a three-shot deficit, posting an eight-under 62 to eclipse Webb Simpson by one stroke. The victory catapults Poston to 77th in the world and slots him into the 27th position for the FedExCup standings.

Our outright betting card provided a few close calls but failed to get the job done when in contention. Josh Teater (175/1), Johnson Wagner (200/1), Andrew Landry (175/1) and Paul Casey (22/1) all flirted or held the lead at some point during the event but had to settle for finishes between sixth and 19th place. While another victory would have put a massive bow onto our betting year, we have now produced 40 top-10 finishes, four victories and 27 top-six results during the 2019 calendar season. With the first leg of the FedExCup Playoffs finally upon us, let's dive a little deeper into some value plays we will be looking to target this week in New Jersey.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.  Sign Up Now!

2019 Northern Trust

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.

To see who the RotoBaller staff is selecting in the weekly 'One and Done' contest, click here.

 

Liberty National Golf Club

7,370 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

Liberty National Golf Club has seen some major renovations over the years after dissatisfaction from the players in 2009. Twelve holes were redone before the 2013 edition of this event, with significant changes being made to the greens, fairways and bunkers.

As of today, there are 90 bunkers and 10 water hazards on the course. The fairways are of average width, but nasty fescue and bluegrass rough will come into play on wayward tee shots. The greens are tricky and should be fast at 12+ on the stimpmeter, and the narrow landing zones on the putting surface does make it challenging to hit greens in regulation.

Wind can play a factor if it is blowing in from the Atlantic, and long iron play will be at a premium because of the tiny surfaces. The five par-fours that measure between 450 to 500 yards are BRUTALLY DIFFICULT and will play as the most challenging holes all weekend. Golfers who can maintain their score through that stretch and perform during the par-fives will be at a major advantage all weekend.

Northern Trust

#1 Dustin Johnson 16/1

DK Price $10,700, FD Price $11,900

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 10.4%

I am not a big fan of this tournament from an outright betting perspective. I don't believe we have enough data to handicap this in a profitable manner, and it does feel a bit like a dart throw if I am being honest.

I try to be as transparent as possible when I write these articles weekly because not all events are as enticing as the general consensus will make you believe. That doesn't mean we still can't try to pinpoint wagers that will yield long-term value, but it is always more challenging to come out ahead when we don't have the ability to stockpile data from past tournaments held at a venue.

In these types of situations, I usually prefer to expand my research out over a more extended period of time and stick to statistics that are more rudimentary. Strokes gained tee to green is about as simple as you are going to get since it incorporates the most basic principles of the game: Who earns the most strokes from the tee to the green? For the sake of parity, the top five options over the past 50 rounds are Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Byeong Hun An and Hideki Matsuyama, and I think Johnson is actually an excellent place to begin our card this weekend at a generous price of 16/1.

It shouldn't come as much of a surprise to you that something must be wrong with Johnson's game if his odds ballooned up to 16/1. The American has lost strokes putting in four consecutive trackable events, making it only the second time in his career that he has gone this many tournaments losing strokes on the greens. In case you were wondering how he rebounded when faced with this scenario in 2013, all he did was win the WGC- HSBC title and gain 19.6 total strokes. Yes, the putting isn't ideal, but Johnson is continuing to strike the ball well and will have his putting come around shortly.

It is beginning to look as if the 35-year-old is trending towards being the lowest owned option at $9,200 or above on DraftKings, but that is precisely what we are hoping to see if we are looking to create high leverage situations against the masses. I'd have priced Johnson at 14/1 to capture the title this weekend in New Jersey and will always take the slightest value on the American when it is presented to us in a non-major event.

#2 Tiger Woods - 30/1

DK Price $9,000 FD Price $10,900

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 12.7%

I have not been great when it comes to predicting when Tiger Woods will perform this season, but Liberty National does feel like the perfect venue for the 81-time PGA Tour winner to get back on track.

After a poor showing at the Open Championship, all reports have pointed towards Tiger finally being healthy for the start of the FedExCup playoffs - making him an interesting name to consider at a course where he has come close in the past. Back-to-back second-place showings in 2009 and 2013 show that the fifth-ranked player in the world is capable of finding success in New Jersey, and the warmer weather should do wonders for his back.

Despite some poor recent results, Woods has not been shabby from a statistical standpoint as of late and ranks inside the top 10 when it comes to strokes gained approach, par-four scoring between 450 to 500 yards, proximity from over 200 yards, greens in regulation gained and strokes gained tee to green. Woods has been slipping down the betting board all week due to his recent perceived form, but I'd expect one last push from the 43-year-old before this year is over, and the first event of the FedExCup playoffs is the perfect location for him to roar again.

#3 Tyrrell Hatton

DK Price $7,500, FD Price $9,300

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 6.5%

Tyrrell Hatton has quietly put together a successful run in the past few months. Ten out of 11 made cuts worldwide, including four top-14 results have highlighted his recent form, and the way the Englishman has been striping the ball with his long irons will make him a problematic player for the other 121 competitors if he can get going with his putter.

Hatton has ranked 11th compared to the field during his past 25 rounds in proximity from over 200 yards and has been a hot putter away from having a chance to win some of these titles recently. While it is never a great sign when a player is struggling with a particular aspect of their game, the 42nd-ranked player in the world has proven to us that he capable of being one of the better players in the world with his flat stick, finishing 2018 ranked third on the European Tour in putts per GIR. 100/1 is a lavish price on Hatton this weekend, and his 6.5% projected ownership on DraftKings makes him an interesting contrarian option to consider in the $7,000 price range.

My Top 30 Ranked Golfers For The Week

Key Stats: GIR 22.5%, Proximity Over 200 Yards 22.5%, Par-Five Birdie Or Better Percentage 20%, Strokes Gained Approach 20% and Par-Four Average 15%

60% Stats/30% Form/10% Course History


Head-to-Head Play of the Week

No head-to-head play this week. We will resume next weekend at the Northern Trust.


2019 Head-to-Head Record (16-9-2)

+8.33 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament

Head-to-Head Bet

Bet

My Picks Finish

Opponent Finish

Result

Total

Safeway Open

Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk

1.00 Units to Win 1.30

MC (+2)

MC (E)

Loss

-1.00

CIMB Classic

Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway

1.50 Units to Win 1.25

T19 (-17)

T27 (-13)

Win

1.25

CJ Cup

Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman

1.25 Units to Win 1.25

T18 (-8)

T18 (-8)

Push

0

WGC-HSBC

Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na

1.00 Units to Win 1.20

T18 (-1)

T54 (+10)

Win

1.20

Shriners

Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley

1.00 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+1)

MC (-1)

Loss

-1.00

Mayakoba

Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman

1.25 Units to Win 1.25

T41 (-9)

MC (+2)

Win

1.25

RSM Classic

Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

2nd (-19)

MC (+2)

Win

1.00

Sony Open

Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

T51 (-6)

Did Not Start

Push

0

Desert Classic

Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T34 (-14)

MC (-8)

Win

1.00

Farmers Insurance

J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace

0.70 Units to Win 0.91

MC (+4)

MC (+3)

Loss

-0.70

Farmers Insurance

Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T35 (-7)

MC (E)

Win

1.00

Waste Management

Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway

1.00 Units to Win 1.05

T60 (E)

MC (E)

Win

1.05

Genesis Open

Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T9 (-7)

T51 (+1)

Win

1.00

Honda Classic

Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat

1.43 Units to Win 1.25

T59 (+3)

MC (+10)

Win

1.25

Arnold Palmer

Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk

0.82 Units to win 0.75

T17 (-5)

T15 (-6)

Loss

-0.82

Players Championship

Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler

0.75 Units to win 0.79

T30 (-6)

T47 (-3)

Win

0.79

Valero Texas Open

Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

MDF (+1)

MC (+4)

Win

1.00

Masters

Bubba Watson -115 over Louis Oosthuizen

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

T12 (-8)

T29 (-4)

Win

1.00

Wells Fargo Championship

Joel Damen +120 over Chez Reavie

0.75 Units to win 0.90

2nd (-12)

T18 (-5)

Win

0.90

Byron Nelson

Trey Mullinax -105 over Brian Stuard

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+5)

T59 (-7)

Loss

-1.05

PGA Championship

Dylan Frittelli -105 over Cameron Champ

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+8)

T54 (+9)

Loss

-1.05

Memorial Tournament

Jason Kokrak -110 over Kyle Stanley

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T62 (+3)

MC (+2)

Win

1.00

Canadian Open

Ollie Schniederjans -110 over Nick Taylor

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

MC (+1)

-6 (T27)

Loss

-1.10

U.S. Open

Tiger Woods +160 over Rory McIlroy

1.00 Units to Win 1.60

T21 (-2)

T9 (-5)

Loss

-1.00

3M Open

Lucas Glover +100 over Charley Hoffman

1.25 Units to Win 1.25

T7 (-16)

MC (E)

Win

1.25

John Deere Classic

Talor Gooch +100 over Beau Hossler

1.25 Units to Win 1.25

MDF (-2)

T26 (-12)

Loss

-1.25

WGC-St. Jude

Eddie Pepperell +170 over Keegan Bradley

.80 Units to Win 1.36

T51 (+4)

T61 (+12)

Win

1.36

2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player

Event

Odds

Finish Position

Matt Kuchar

Mayakoba Golf Classic

66

1

Corey Conners

Valero Texas Open

200

1

Rory McIlroy

Canadian Open

10

1

Brooks Koepka

WGC- St. Jude

12

1

Chesson Hadley

CIMB Classic

110

T2

Dustin Johnson

Masters

12

T2

Adam Scott

Memorial

33

2

Ryan Palmer

CJ Cup

150

T3

Sam Ryder

Shriners Hospitals

80

3

Chez Reavie

Sony Open

80

T3

Justin Thomas

Waste Management

10

3

Tommy Fleetwood

Arnold Palmer

35

T3

Rafa Cabrera-Bello

Arnold Palmer

60

T3

Scott Piercy

RBC Heritage

150

T3

Xander Schaufele

U.S. Open

28

T3

Tony Finau

Open Championship

80

3

Marc Leishman

WGC- St. Jude

66

3

Lucas Glover

Honda Classic

60

T4

Brooks Koepka

Byron Nelson

7

T4

Jason Day

CJ Cup

13

T5

Sergio Garcia

WGC-Match Play

45

T5

Jason Day

Masters

40

T5

Marc Leishman

Memorial

66

5

Kevin Tway

Travelers

150

T5

Adam Hadwin

Canadian Open

70

6

Rickie Fowler

Open Championship

33

T6

Zach Johnson

RSM Classic

40

T7

Kevin Kisner

RSM Classic

40

T7

Troy Merritt

3M Open

175

T7

Lucas Glover

3M Open

90

T7

Webb Simpson

TOC

25

8

Jason Day

Players Championship

40

T8

Hideki Matsuyama

Players Championship

40

T8

Jason Day

Travelers

20

T8

J.B. Holmes

Safeway Open

60

9

Gary Woodland

Farmers Insurance

28

T9

Hideki Matsuyama

Genesis Open

30

T9

Shubankar Sharma

CIMB Classic

150

T10

Troy Merritt

RBC Heritage

250

T10

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


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